5. In addition, consistent with the approach we explained in a more recent Alaska Landmine column (https://bit.ly/45GQSJk), we restate spendable (cash) levels projected for the ERA in future years after applying non-cash income to inflation proofing beginning w/ FY26.

3/end

3. We follow the balance of the ERA, broken down by committed and realized & unrealized uncommitted levels, as currently reported by the APFC.

4. As we explained in earlier Alaska Landmine columns (https://bit.ly/43lFeiL & https://bit.ly/48sASJy), we believe the current APFC financial statements understate the level of realized uncommitted ERA funds. To correct, we include a chart restating the amount.

2/3

Investment Charts| We publish the following five charts monthly after the APFC financial statements are posted. All are current through May 2025. #akleg

1. We follow the balances of the state's two main investment funds, the PF & ARMBd retirement funds

2. We compare the balance of the PF and POMV draws against the S&P 500 ETF approach we describe at https://bit.ly/45GQSJk

1/3

The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:

YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 84% & 93%;
> Domestic share: 73% & 84%.
#akleg

Our reaction when we see yet another op-ed from someone in the Top20% arguing it's no big thing to give up the PFD: 🤯🤯. We can't determine if they are ignorant about the impact or knowingly greedy, but the effect is the same. #akleg https://alaskalandmine.com/landmines/brad-keithleys-chart-of-the-week-think-oil-credits-are-big-theres-another-even-bigger-category/

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY25-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast:

> FY25 even ($0mil UGF)
> FY26 ⬆️ $4 (+$220mil)
> FY27-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$145mil)
#akleg

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Where are oil prices headed now, the US Senate adopts the same budget gimmick as the #akleg & why the Alaska budget outlook will become even worse if we don't fix oil taxes before "drill, baby, drill." https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-6232025

ICYMI. This week's Alaska Landmine column| This week, we are making some revisions to one set of our monthly charts to help those interested in better understanding the Permanent Fund and its options. #akleg https://alaskalandmine.com/landmines/brad-keithleys-chart-of-the-week-updating-some-monthly-charts-on-the-permanent-fund/

🤷‍♂️ Bettisworth: the PFD is "free money," so cut it and divert it to subsidize the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos. They should pay something after that also, but subsidize them first. #akleg #TypicalTop20% https://www.newsminer.com/opinion/community_perspectives/if-you-want-to-invest-in-the-business-of-alaska-you-better-have-skin-in/article_0a5a49f6-b157-48d3-9316-c600d03c328d.html

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY25-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast:

> FY25 even ($0mil UGF)
> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$270mil)
> FY27-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$145mil)
#akleg

Oil goes up, oil goes down. But the rate of this descent is brutal. #akleg

This Wk's Top 3| The US attacks Iran and oil prices go down; like the #akleg, the US Senate uses acct'g tricks to mask deficits & state revs will be even lower if we don't #FixOilTaxes before we drill baby drill. T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at https://buff.ly/os1GijR

🤷 Who had on their bingo card that before they happened, that after the weekend US strikes and today's Iranian response, oil prices would be DOWN ~5% from Friday's close? We have to admit we didn't. #akleg

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY25-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 F'cast:

> FY25 even ($0mil UGF)
> FY26 ⬆️ $9 (+$415mil)
> FY27-32 ⬆️ $4 (avg annual +$145mil)
#akleg

The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. Current Enstar price is 36% ⬇️ Asia, 130% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 13% ⬇️ Asia, 124% ⬆️ L48. #akleg

Even though it's not projected to be available until 2031, we have also started including Wood Mackenzie's recent projection of the delivered cost of #AKLNG Phase I. At 2031 start-up date, projected AKLNG Phase I price is 50% ⬆️ Asia.

🤦‍♂️ Making up numbers. Rather than cutting spending or raising revenue Senate Rs are reducing the deficit impact "by using a 'current policy baseline' — a never-before-used technique that wipes out the cost of extending expiring tax cuts." #akleg https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/22/senate-tax-bill-jct-score-00417131

You can lose the forest for the trees by following too closely, but it seems significant that the FY26 strip is now down $2 since the open. #akleg #BedTimeCheck

For those interested, here's the Brent FY26 strip about 2 hours into the trading day (Asia). Up, but not as much as some guessed going in. And, the market is still in backwardation. Midpoints: FY27 ($70.51), FY28 ($69.25), FY29 ($68.87), FY30 ($68.50). #akleg

Alaskans, let's be honest with ourselves. Those who refer to PFDs as "spending" and PFDcuts as "spending cuts" are just trying to dodge the issue of which funding approach is more harmful to #AKfams & the #AKecon. Let's have an honest debate. #akleg https://alaskalandmine.com/landmines/brad-keithleys-chart-of-the-week-alaska-has-a-revenue-design-problem/

The #AKgovt has a way of protecting itself against the crude oil futures market roller coaster, but for whatever reason (thrill seeking??), the #akleg & #akgov choose not to use it. https://alaskalandmine.com/landmines/brad-keithleys-chart-of-the-week-how-alaska-can-control-oil-revenues/