Did retaliatory tariffs affect Canadian imports from the U.S.? And what about consumer boycotts? Some new data provides some early answers.

My latest for @TheHubCanada: https://thehub.ca/2025/06/25/trevor-tombe-how-much-did-canadas-trade-retaliation-really-hurt-the-u-s/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

What a higher NATO military spending target means for Canada's finances. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the potential for a 3.5%+1.5% target for NATO members: https://thehub.ca/2025/06/12/trevor-tombe-what-a-higher-nato-military-spending-target-means-for-canada/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Liberalizing trade within Canada has long been a challenge. But recent moves by governments right across Canada are making big improvements, led by Atlantic Canada. My new report with PPF explores some the potential gains:

https://ppforum.ca/policy-speaking/free-atlantic-unlocking-regional-growth/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

How much did the carbon tax actually impact inflation?

My latest for @TheHubCanada: https://thehub.ca/2025/05/22/need-to-know-how-much-did-the-carbon-tax-actually-impact-inflation/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

We unfortunately received some pointed critiques and even some attacks from some unhinged individuals (some politicians, and even a particular colleague at another university) for our work. Today's data is consistent with our work.

To clarify, it's not that inflation is 0.6% higher due to carbon taxes. But instead it's that "price levels" were 0.6% higher. So their removal resulted in a one-time 0.6% drop in the change in CPI.

Today's inflation data: avg prices rose 1.7% in April vs last year.

Absent carbon taxes, inflation would have been 2.3% in April (see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810025601). This 0.6% effect validates research (incl. by myself and @dr_jen_winter) on the effect of CTaxes. #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Even when Canada's regional diversity causes tension (and, dare I say, alienation), it can be a good thing.

My latest for @TheHubCanada: https://thehub.ca/2025/05/15/trevor-tombe-why-an-alberta-accord-makes-sense/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Curious about the history and functioning of federal-provincial transfers in Canada? Here's a paper unpacking it all: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3309712

Seems like it might become topical again in #cdnpoli and #ableg

It's been a month since Canada's federal consumer carbon price was eliminated. With the latest data from this morning, the effect on gasoline prices remains clear: nearly the full value of tax cut was passed to consumers. #cdnecon

Today’s data: the StatCan payroll report! Employment down slightly in February, mainly due to a drop in education, while average earnings reach nearly $1.3k per week, up 5.4% over this time last year.

Details: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250424/dq250424a-eng.htm?HPA=1 #cdnecon

In an uncertain world, with no shortage of future demands on public finances, Canada would benefit from a credible & sustainable fiscal strategy. Unfortunately, the LPC platform would take us further from that goal.

My latest for @TheHubCanada here: https://thehub.ca/2025/04/21/trevor-tombe-the-liberal-platform-walks-away-from-the-partys-own-fiscal-commitments/ #cdnpoli #cdnecon

The next government will set the Bank of Canada's mandate. It's an issue receiving little attention.

My latest for @TheHubCanada on the value of targeting inflation and nothing more: https://thehub.ca/2025/04/17/trevor-tombe-dont-mess-with-the-bank-of-canadas-mandate/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

The S&P 500 has lost 10.5% of its value in two days.

Since 1980, we've only seen larger declines three other times: the '87 crash, Nov 2008, and Mar 2020. And those weren't due to policy choices.

This may be the largest self-imposed destruction of wealth ever.

How bad was today's stock market decline?

Of the 11,406 trading days since January 1980, only 29 had larger declines.

Some great new analysis by @TaxFoundation on the latest U.S. tariff developments: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/

The U.S. is now set to have the highest average tax on imports since 1933.

If there’s one lesson from the 1930s, it’s that doubling down on protectionism and retaliation will only deepen Canada’s economic pain.

My latest for @TheHubCanada on the last time a trade war was a part of a Canadian election: https://thehub.ca/2025/04/03/trevor-tombe-theres-a-lot-we-can-learn-today-from-canadas-last-trade-war-election/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Has eliminating the federal retail carbon tax lowered gasoline prices? Yes.

With two days of data now, here's my estimate of the effect. Drop appears to fully reflect the tax change. (Note: no change CTax in QC, so that's a nice comparator.) #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Duelling tax cuts from the Liberals and Conservatives may improve family budgets—but they'll do little for the economy. My latest for @TheHubCanada

https://thehub.ca/2025/03/27/trevor-tombe-duelling-tax-cuts-from-the-liberals-and-conservatives-improve-family-budgets-but-do-little-for-the-economy/ #cdnecon

The proposed changes in personal income tax cuts by the LPC and CPC affect different individuals/families differently. Depends on what credits you claim, your income, number of earners in the family, etc. Here's my estimate of the full distribution of changes. #cdnecon