Political Brief – September 2025: Road to 2026 Elections – DrWeb’s Domain
<
Political Brief – September 2025: Road to 2026 Elections
Here’s the first monthly brief tracking major U.S. political, economic, social, and election storylines on the road to November 2026, with two charts included below. Key takeaways: Trump’s national job approval is currently in the low-to-mid 40s, and forecasting signals point to Democrats favored in the House while Republicans are advantaged in the Senate as of mid-September 2025.
Politics
Trump’s latest national approval sits near 42% in the Reuters/Ipsos tracker, with relatively stronger ratings on crime and immigration than on the economy, and a disapproval in the mid-50s range in multiple polls.
Analysts note approval has hovered in a tight band, with Nate Silver describing “distinct phases” but a current net approval around -7 to -10; that range is not historically terrible amid polarization, and is comparable or slightly better than Biden’s at a similar stage of his presidency according to recent analysis writeups.
The 2026 Senate battlefield features GOP control at 53–47 and a Democratic need to flip four seats for a majority; early handicapping shows a difficult path for Democrats despite typical midterm headwinds favoring the out-party.
Economy
Recent polling underscores that Trump’s relative weakness remains economic perceptions versus crime/immigration, a key factor for midterm sentiment; approval on overall job performance at 42% suggests economic narratives could be decisive in 2026 persuasion and turnout.
Generic-ballot advantages for Democrats (single-digit lead) are being interpreted by some forecasters as consistent with a House pickup, though economic volatility could narrow or widen that edge as macro data and consumer sentiment evolve.
Social Issues
Issue salience continues to shape approval and ballot dynamics, with public divisions over security and policing proposals (e.g., National Guard deployments) reflected in CBS/YouGov and other national polling snapshots cited in roundups, creating cross-pressures that differ by region and state competitiveness.
State-level splits in approval (e.g., Morning Consult state ratings) highlight a polarized map where the GOP posts strong net approval in deep-red states while facing challenging opinion environments in blue and some swing states—an asymmetry that matters for Senate map math and House targets.
Key Events to Watch
Senate recruitment and primary fields are solidifying in pivotal contests, with early coverage emphasizing hard targets and defensive terrain; national committees and outside groups are beginning to triage resources as the cycle’s fundamentals take shape.
Forecast platforms and interactive maps (e.g., 270toWin and Race to the WH) are updating odds and state-by-state outlooks; these will move with new fundraising reports, special elections, redistricting developments, and emerging polling.
Charts
Notes on Charts:
- Trump Approval Rating (2025 YTD): Anchored by national trackers and recent roundups putting September near 42% in Reuters/Ipsos and low-to-mid 40s across other poll aggregations.
- Congress Control Outlook (as of Sep 2025): Synthesizes current forecaster/handicapper reads—Democrats favored in the House on generic-ballot swing; Republicans advantaged in the Senate given the 53–47 map and seat exposure—consistent with Brookings’ midterm analysis and forecast sites’ summaries.
Scheduling note: This brief will repeat monthly with updated approval, odds/forecasts, and headline drivers through November 2026, maintaining consistent sources and methodology for comparability over time.
References
Blake, A. (2025, September 16). Trump is not as unpopular as his opponents think. Bloomberg Opinion. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-16/trump-approval-rating-isn-t-terrible-ahead-of-2026-midterms
CBS News. (2025, August 28). Key senate contests take shape ahead of 2026 midterm elections. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/key-senate-contests-2026-elections/
Dorn, S. (2025, September 11). Trump approval rating: 42% in latest survey. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/09/11/trump-approval-rating-42-in-latest-survey/
Gambino, L. (2025, September 15). Nate Silver outlines four ‘distinct periods’ in Trump’s approval rating. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-nate-silver-2129868
Hudson, J. (2025, September 14). What is Trump’s approval rating? See how it compares across states. USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/09/14/donald-trump-approval-rating/86110183007/
Jones, A. (2025, September 10). The 2026 senate elections predictions as of September 11, 2025 [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntdF8Mcw71c&vl=en
Mason, R., & Thompson, K. (2025, August 20). What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-history-tells-us-about-the-2026-midterm-elections/
Miller, P. (2025, July 23). 2026 senate election forecast maps. 270toWin.com. https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election-predictions/
Peterson, L. (2025, June 29). 2026 house election interactive map. 270toWin.com. https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/
Politico Staff. (2025, September 9). Trump approval rating at 42% – weak on economy, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-approval-rating-42-weak-economy-reutersipsos-poll-shows-2025-09-09/
Race to the WH. (2024, December 31). 2026 senate forecast. Race to the WH. https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26
Silver, N. (2025, September 15). Trump approval rating: Latest polls. Silver Bulletin. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Smith, D. (2025, September 4). President Trump’s approval rating hits new high. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/09/president-trumps-approval-rating-hits-new-high/
Taylor, M. (2025, September 14). Trump’s approval rating in various US states revealed. WBZ NewsRadio. https://wbznewsradio.iheart.com/content/2025-09-15-trumps-approval-rating-in-various-us-states-revealed/
Thomas, S. (2025, September 1). Tracking recent political trends and events template. Priority Matrix. https://sync.appfluence.com/project_templates/t/tracking-recent-political-trends/
<
Political Brief – September 2025: Road to 2026 Elections
Here’s the first monthly brief tracking major U.S. political, economic, social, and election storylines on the road to November 2026, with two charts included below. Key takeaways: Trump’s national job approval is currently in the low-to-mid 40s, and forecasting signals point to Democrats favored in the House while Republicans are advantaged in the Senate as of mid-September 2025.
Politics
Trump’s latest national approval sits near 42% in the Reuters/Ipsos tracker, with relatively stronger ratings on crime and immigration than on the economy, and a disapproval in the mid-50s range in multiple polls.
Analysts note approval has hovered in a tight band, with Nate Silver describing “distinct phases” but a current net approval around -7 to -10; that range is not historically terrible amid polarization, and is comparable or slightly better than Biden’s at a similar stage of his presidency according to recent analysis writeups.
The 2026 Senate battlefield features GOP control at 53–47 and a Democratic need to flip four seats for a majority; early handicapping shows a difficult path for Democrats despite typical midterm headwinds favoring the out-party.
Economy
Recent polling underscores that Trump’s relative weakness remains economic perceptions versus crime/immigration, a key factor for midterm sentiment; approval on overall job performance at 42% suggests economic narratives could be decisive in 2026 persuasion and turnout.
Generic-ballot advantages for Democrats (single-digit lead) are being interpreted by some forecasters as consistent with a House pickup, though economic volatility could narrow or widen that edge as macro data and consumer sentiment evolve.
Social Issues
Issue salience continues to shape approval and ballot dynamics, with public divisions over security and policing proposals (e.g., National Guard deployments) reflected in CBS/YouGov and other national polling snapshots cited in roundups, creating cross-pressures that differ by region and state competitiveness.
State-level splits in approval (e.g., Morning Consult state ratings) highlight a polarized map where the GOP posts strong net approval in deep-red states while facing challenging opinion environments in blue and some swing states—an asymmetry that matters for Senate map math and House targets.
Key Events to Watch
Senate recruitment and primary fields are solidifying in pivotal contests, with early coverage emphasizing hard targets and defensive terrain; national committees and outside groups are beginning to triage resources as the cycle’s fundamentals take shape.
Forecast platforms and interactive maps (e.g., 270toWin and Race to the WH) are updating odds and state-by-state outlooks; these will move with new fundraising reports, special elections, redistricting developments, and emerging polling.
Charts
Notes on Charts:
- Trump Approval Rating (2025 YTD): Anchored by national trackers and recent roundups putting September near 42% in Reuters/Ipsos and low-to-mid 40s across other poll aggregations.
- Congress Control Outlook (as of Sep 2025): Synthesizes current forecaster/handicapper reads—Democrats favored in the House on generic-ballot swing; Republicans advantaged in the Senate given the 53–47 map and seat exposure—consistent with Brookings’ midterm analysis and forecast sites’ summaries.
Scheduling note: This brief will repeat monthly with updated approval, odds/forecasts, and headline drivers through November 2026, maintaining consistent sources and methodology for comparability over time.
References
Blake, A. (2025, September 16). Trump is not as unpopular as his opponents think. Bloomberg Opinion. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-16/trump-approval-rating-isn-t-terrible-ahead-of-2026-midterms
CBS News. (2025, August 28). Key senate contests take shape ahead of 2026 midterm elections. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/key-senate-contests-2026-elections/
Dorn, S. (2025, September 11). Trump approval rating: 42% in latest survey. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2025/09/11/trump-approval-rating-42-in-latest-survey/
Gambino, L. (2025, September 15). Nate Silver outlines four ‘distinct periods’ in Trump’s approval rating. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-nate-silver-2129868
Hudson, J. (2025, September 14). What is Trump’s approval rating? See how it compares across states. USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/09/14/donald-trump-approval-rating/86110183007/
Jones, A. (2025, September 10). The 2026 senate elections predictions as of September 11, 2025 [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntdF8Mcw71c&vl=en
Mason, R., & Thompson, K. (2025, August 20). What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-history-tells-us-about-the-2026-midterm-elections/
Miller, P. (2025, July 23). 2026 senate election forecast maps. 270toWin.com. https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election-predictions/
Peterson, L. (2025, June 29). 2026 house election interactive map. 270toWin.com. https://www.270towin.com/2026-house-election/
Politico Staff. (2025, September 9). Trump approval rating at 42% – weak on economy, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-approval-rating-42-weak-economy-reutersipsos-poll-shows-2025-09-09/
Race to the WH. (2024, December 31). 2026 senate forecast. Race to the WH. https://www.racetothewh.com/senate/26
Silver, N. (2025, September 15). Trump approval rating: Latest polls. Silver Bulletin. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
Smith, D. (2025, September 4). President Trump’s approval rating hits new high. The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/09/president-trumps-approval-rating-hits-new-high/
Taylor, M. (2025, September 14). Trump’s approval rating in various US states revealed. WBZ NewsRadio. https://wbznewsradio.iheart.com/content/2025-09-15-trumps-approval-rating-in-various-us-states-revealed/
Thomas, S. (2025, September 1). Tracking recent political trends and events template. Priority Matrix. https://sync.appfluence.com/project_templates/t/tracking-recent-political-trends/
#2025 #2026Elections #2026Midterms #America #DonaldTrump #Education #Health #History #Libraries #Library #LibraryOfCongress #Opinion #Perplexity #PoliticalBrief #Politics #Resistance #RoadTo2026Elections #Science #September2025 #Trump #TrumpAdministration #UnitedStates