Hugh White in The Guardian argues that a war with China is unwinable:
“… how likely are we to achieve [a successful defence of Taiwan against PRC military aggression]…? The short answer is very unlikely. With or without Australia’s support, the US has no serious chance of winning a war with China over Taiwan. That means Taiwan would not be saved, the US position in Asia would be not preserved, and Australia’s value as an ally would disappear. Like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, we would have followed Washington into a war that achieved neither its objectives nor ours but this time at unimaginably greater cost.”
Now before anyone jumps in, it is well to remember that #HughWhite is a very knowledgeable individual. He was at one time an Intelligence mandarin under a Coalition govt and privy to more information (i’d wager) than any given out in national security briefings to our polies. He knows what he is talking about. I only wish he would expand on the reasoning which made him conclude that defending #Taiwan is a hopeless endeavour. Whatever that reasoning is, he makes it clear that there is no doubt in his mind about the outcome.
Aside from the above, with little to back it up but scant knowledge of the PRC’s potential and capabilities, I remain skeptical about Hugh’s postulated outcome and cannot come to any certainty about how the fates of destiny would pan out in any scenarios playing through my mind (short of a ground war on the mainland). Albit, every scenarios of armed conflict between China and the US alliance seem to exact an unforgivable human price. A price which Australia should boldly refuse to pay.
#AUKUS #ANZUS #DefencePosture #ForeignAffairs #AusPol
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/19/the-australia-us-alliance-is-facing-a-decisive-test-and-not-just-over-the-middle-east?