#Bundestagwahl2025

Philipp Sommersommer@mastodon.world
2025-02-24

#Merz hat versagt. Aus den Verlusten von

#SPD -9,3 %
#Grünen -3,1 %
#FDP -7,1%
#Ampel gesamt -19,5%

hat er für die #CDU #CSU nur mickrige +4,4% geholt. Ein Desaster. #btw2025 #bundestagwahl2025

Friedrich Merz says that he will work with the SPD to change the election laws after 23 constituency winners are unable to take a seat. 18 of those 23 are from the CDU/CSU.

The rule was put in place after the last election in response to a Bundestag that was larger than at any point since reunification, with 137 overhang and balance seats needed to ensure proportionality. If yesterday's election had been contested under the old system, 53 overhang and balance seats would have been required.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

DEUTSCHLAND
FIRST VOTE MANDATES WITHOUT SECOND VOTE COVERAGE [299/299 (16/16)]

DEUTSCHLAND: CDU/CSU 18, AfD 4, SPD 1

SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN: CDU 1
HAMBURG: 
NIEDERSACHSEN: 
BREMEN: SPD 1
NORDRHEIN-WESTFALEN: 
HESSEN: CDU 5
RHEINLAND-PFALZ: CDU 3
BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG: CDU 6
BAYERN: CSU 3
SAARLAND: 
BERLIN: 
BRANDENBURG: AfD 1
MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN: AfD 1
SACHSEN: AfD 1
SACHSEN-ANHALT: AfD 1
THÜRINGEN:

23 candidates who won the most first-votes in their constituencies will not be able to take their seats, because there are not enough second-votes for their respective parties in their respective states.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

DEUTSCHLAND
FIRST VOTE MANDATES WITHOUT SECOND VOTE COVERAGE [299/299 (16/16)]

DEUTSCHLAND: CDU/CSU 18, AfD 4, SPD 1

SCHLESWIG-HOLSTEIN: CDU 1
HAMBURG: 
NIEDERSACHSEN: 
BREMEN: SPD 1
NORDRHEIN-WESTFALEN: 
HESSEN: CDU 5
RHEINLAND-PFALZ: CDU 3
BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG: CDU 6
BAYERN: CSU 3
SAARLAND: 
BERLIN: 
BRANDENBURG: AfD 1
MECKLENBURG-VORPOMMERN: AfD 1
SACHSEN: AfD 1
SACHSEN-ANHALT: AfD 1
THÜRINGEN:
R. Wucherpfennigrewurhg88@hessen.social
2025-02-24

19,3 % Faschisten #FCKAfD ist einfach zu viel im #LandkreisKassel

#Kassel als Großstadt ist ja eigenständig und daher sind es die ländlichen Gebiete von #Nordhessen.

#BTW25 #Bundestagwahl2025

Roel 🇺🇦🔻❤💚🏳️‍🌈🍆🍑🦄leftwingcyclist@mstdn.social
2025-02-24

Verandering? Hé, opletten NOS!!! Het zijn gristendemocraten! Die veranderen nooit! #Bundestagwahl2025 nos.nl/artikel/2557096-duitse-

João Santosjmcs@jsantos.eu
2025-02-24

A silver lining of the #Bundestagwahl2025 is both the #FDP and #BSW being out of the Bundestag. Good riddance.

Here are the final seat figures, with all 299 constituencies declared.

The Grand Coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD looks like the only credible coalition option if the anti-AfD "firewall" is to be maintained.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

DEUTSCHLAND

SEAT ESTIMATE [299/299 (16/16)] (CHANGE SINCE 2021, ADJUSTED FOR ELECTORAL REFORMS)
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION/CHRISTIAN SOCIAL UNION: 208 (+42)
ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY: 152 (+80)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 120 (-57)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 85 (-16)
THE LEFT: 64 (+30)
SOUTH SCHLESWIG VOTER'S ASSOCIATION: 1 (±0)
FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 0 (-79)
316 SEATS FOR MAJORITY

SECOND VOTE SWING: 6.8% SWING SPD TO CDU/CSU

With 23 constituencies to declare, this is where I'm going to call it tonight.

Though the BSW is currently above 5%, I don't think they will finish there, as most of the constituencies still outstanding are West German and it's in East Germany where they've done well.

The "Grand Coalition" is the only realistic coalition coming out of this election. Friedrich Merz says he wants it done by Easter. We'll see if that can happen.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

DEUTSCHLAND

SEAT ESTIMATE [276/299 (16/16)] (CHANGE SINCE 2021, ADJUSTED FOR ELECTORAL REFORMS)
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION/CHRISTIAN SOCIAL UNION: 196 (+29)
ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY: 144 (+71)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 114 (-64)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 79 (-21)
THE LEFT: 61 (+27)
SAHRA WAGENKNECHT ALLIANCE: 35 (+35)
SOUTH SCHLESWIG VOTER'S ASSOCIATION: 1 (±0)
FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 0 (-77)
316 SEATS FOR MAJORITY

SECOND VOTE SWING: 6.8% SWING SPD TO CDU/CSU

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 00:00 CET:

234 down, 65 to go, and the "Grand Coalition" is looking more and more likely as more and more results come in.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

COALITION BUILDER

SEAT ESTIMATE [234/299 (16/16)]
GRAND COALITION (CDU/CSU, SPD): 331
KIWI (CDU/CSU, GRÜNE): 293
BLACK-YELLOW (CDU/CSU): 210
RED-GREEN (SPD, GRÜNE): 204
JAMAICA (CDU/CSU, GRÜNE): 293
RED-GREEN-RED (SPD, GRÜNE, LINKE): 268
TRAFFIC LIGHT (SPD, GRÜNE): 204
KENYA (CDU/CSU, SPD, GRÜNE): 414
GERMAN FLAG (CDU/CSU, SPD): 331
316 SEATS FOR MAJORITY

The AfD has topped the poll in all five states in the former East Germany.

But they've not managed to finish on top in any former West German state, while in Berlin, they're all the way back in fifth place.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 23:30 CET:

We have two-thirds of the results in now, and it still looks like a two-party coalition is the most likely outcome.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

DEUTSCHLAND

SEAT ESTIMATE [200/299 (16/16)] (CHANGE SINCE 2021, ADJUSTED FOR ELECTORAL REFORMS)
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION/CHRISTIAN SOCIAL UNION: 211 (+40)
ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY: 155 (+81)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 118 (-60)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 81 (-16)
THE LEFT: 64 (+30)
SOUTH SCHLESWIG VOTER'S ASSOCIATION: 1 (+1)
FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 0 (-76)
316 SEATS FOR MAJORITY

SECOND VOTE SWING: 6.9% SWING SPD TO CDU/CSU

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 23:00 CET:

With more than half of constituencies now declared, it looks like a two-party Grand Coalition will remain the most likely possibility.

The FDP looks like it's not going to make it into the Bundestag, and I think the BSW will finish just short as well (though that one is less certain).

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

COALITION BUILDER

SEAT ESTIMATE [154/299 (13/16)]
GRAND COALITION (CDU/CSU, SPD): 331
KIWI (CDU/CSU, GRÜNE): 295
BLACK-YELLOW (CDU/CSU): 216
RED-GREEN (SPD, GRÜNE): 194
JAMAICA (CDU/CSU, GRÜNE): 295
RED-GREEN-RED (SPD, GRÜNE, LINKE): 256
TRAFFIC LIGHT (SPD, GRÜNE): 194
KENYA (CDU/CSU, SPD, GRÜNE): 410
GERMAN FLAG (CDU/CSU, SPD): 331
316 SEATS FOR MAJORITY

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 22:30 CET:

It still looks like the Union and the SPD could form a two-party coalition, but there are still a lot of results to come in and plenty of time for the FDP or BSW to hit 5%.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

DEUTSCHLAND

SEAT ESTIMATE [101/299 (10/16)] (CHANGE SINCE 2021, ADJUSTED FOR ELECTORAL REFORMS)
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION/CHRISTIAN SOCIAL UNION: 228 (+34)
ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY: 161 (+80)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 112 (-69)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 74 (-20)
THE LEFT: 54 (+54)
SOUTH SCHLESWIG VOTER'S ASSOCIATION: 1 (±0)
FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 0 (-79)
316 SEATS FOR MAJORITY

SECOND VOTE SWING: 3.1% SWING CDU/CSU TO AFD

30 constituencies declared so far in Bavaria, all of which have been won by the CSU.

But it's unlikely that all 30 of them will be able to take their seats, as there won't be enough second votes to cover all of those mandates. In this case, those mandate winners who received the fewest votes will be denied a seat in the Bundestag.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

BAYERN

CONSTITUENCIES LEADING [30/47] (CHANGE SINCE 2021)
CHRISTIAN SOCIAL UNION: 30 (+1)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 0 (-1)

FIRST VOTE SWING: 3.3% SWING CSU TO AFD

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 22:00 CET:

45 constituencies have now declared, and the swings are not far off from the exit poll.

The AfD and the BSW are outperforming in East Germany so far, with the SPD collapsing even harder in the East than in the West.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

DEUTSCHLAND

SECOND VOTES [45/299] (CHANGE SINCE 2021)
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION/CHRISTIAN SOCIAL UNION: 33.0% (+5.0%)
ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY: 22.2% (+11.1%)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 14.1% (-8.8%)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 9.9% (-2.3%)
THE LEFT: 6.6% (+2.9%)
SAHRA WAGENKNECHT ALLIANCE: 4.1% (*)
FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.9% (-6.5%)
FREE VOTERS: 3.4% (-2.2%)
OTHERS: 2.8% (+0.9%)
* CHANGE INCLUDED IN OTHERS
50% FOR MAJORITY

SWING SINCE 2021: 3.1% SWING CDU/CSU TO AFD

Three constituencies declared in East Germany, and the AfD so far has double the vote share of the CDU.

However, those seats are in Saxony and Thuringia, where the AfD topped the poll last time. We don't have anything yet from Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, or East Berlin, where the AfD support was less.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

WEST GERMANY
SECOND VOTES [26/246], INCLUDES WEST BERLIN (CHANGE SINCE 2021, WEST BERLIN CHANGE BASED ON 2024 REPEAT ELECTION)
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION/CHRISTIAN SOCIAL UNION: 35.0% (+5.2%)
ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY: 20.7% (+11.1%)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 13.9% (-8.1%)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 10.2% (-2.4%)
THE LEFT: 6.0% (+3.1%)
FREE VOTERS: 4.3% (-2.8%)
FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.7% (-6.2%)
SAHRA WAGENKNECHT ALLIANCE: 3.3% (+3.3%)
OTHERS: 2.8% (-3.1%)

EAST GERMANY
SECOND VOTES [3/53], INCLUDES EAST BERLIN (CHANGE SINCE 2021, EAST BERLIN CHANGE BASED ON 2024 REPEAT ELECTION)
ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY: 38.9% (+13.0%)
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION: 19.2% (+3.2%)
THE LEFT: 11.7% (+1.8%)
SAHRA WAGENKNECHT ALLIANCE: 9.8% (+9.8%)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 9.1% (-12.7%)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 4.5% (-1.9%)
FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.0% (-7.5%)
FREE VOTERS: 1.6% (-0.6%)
OTHERS: 2.1% (-5.2%)

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 21:30 CET:

Results have been declared in 18 constituencies, of which 11 are in Bavaria.

The SPD has so far lost three constituency seats, two to the CDU and one to the AfD.

AfD doing a bit better than the exit poll so far, but still a lot more results to be declared.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

DEUTSCHLAND

SECOND VOTES [18/299] (CHANGE SINCE 2021)
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION/CHRISTIAN SOCIAL UNION: 33.4% (+4.8%)
ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY: 23.4% (+12.0%)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 13.5% (-9.2%)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 8.7% (-2.3%)
THE LEFT: 6.3% (+2.8%)
FREE VOTERS: 4.4% (-2.8%)
SAHRA WAGENKNECHT ALLIANCE: 4.0% (*)
FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.5% (-6.2%)
OTHERS: 2.6% (+0.9%)
* CHANGE INCLUDED IN OTHERS
50% FOR MAJORITY

SWING SINCE 2021: 3.6% SWING CDU/CSU TO AFD

Three constituencies declared now (all in Bavaria), and the swings we're seeing are not a million miles out from the initial exit poll.

But I'll still be very interested in how this varies state by state, and in particular between the old West Germany vs East Germany.

#GermanyDecides #Election2025 #GermanElection #Bundestagwahl2025

DEUTSCHLAND

SECOND VOTES [3/299] (CHANGE SINCE 2021)
CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION/CHRISTIAN SOCIAL UNION: 38.7% (+5.1%)
ALTERNATIVE FOR GERMANY: 25.9% (+13.7%)
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 9.9% (-8.1%)
ALLIANCE 90/THE GREENS: 6.3% (-1.7%)
FREE VOTERS: 5.7% (-5.1%)
THE LEFT: 4.3% (+2.2%)
FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY: 3.3% (-5.8%)
SAHRA WAGENKNECHT ALLIANCE: 3.3% (*)
OTHERS: 2.6% (-0.3%)
* CHANGE INCLUDED IN OTHERS
50% FOR MAJORITY

SWING SINCE 2021: 4.3% SWING CDU/CSU TO AFD

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