Yikes! Hold onto your hats! Chance of #XFlares 50%!!!
Current #SolarFlare Threat
(as of 5/6/2024):
C-Flare: 99%
M-Flare: 90%
X-Flare: 50%
Proton: 25%
Flare Events (M2+) Past 48 Hours (all from AR 3663):
M9.1
M8.4
X1.3
M7.4
X1.2
M2.2
X4.5
https://solarham.com/
#SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #XClassFlare #CarringtonEffect #CME
Far-side #XClass #SolarFlare -- good thing it's not Earth-facing!
SolarHam: X2.5 / CME Update
February 16, 2024 @ 12:20 UTC
"Multiple coronal mass ejections are visible in the latest cornagraph imagery.
"For the third day in a row, an energetic eruption was observed off the farside of the Sun. This will obviously be directed away from Earth.
"The impulsive X2.5 solar flare around AR 3576 this morning resulted in a beautiful eruption of plasma off the southwest limb. Although there is currently a gap in imagery, the main stream of plasma appears to be headed away from Earth. I do not expect a noteworthy impact from this event."
Current Solar Flare Threat
C-Flare: 99%
M-Flare: 60%
X-Flare: 15%
Proton: 15%
Source:
https://www.solarham.net/
#SolarHam update:
Solar Flux is 190
November 22, 2023 @ 21:20 UTC
"Below is the latest look at the #sunspot party currently taking place on the Sun. #AR3490 and #AR3492 remain the main regions of focus and are listed as the most likely to produce a noteworthy #SolarFlare. What appears to be another large active region is now turning into view off the southeast limb. With all of the #sunspots currently facing #Earth, the solar flux index for Wednesday is 190. What a turnaround compared to even five days ago. The current flare threat stands at 55% for a moderate M-Flare and 10% for a strong #XFlare."
Update: the probably for an #XClass flare is now 10%.
The sun has been extra active!
#Sunspot Cluster Update
November 22, 2023 @ 01:10 UTC
"Below is the latest look at the cluster of sunspots in the northeast quadrant of the Sun as we head into Wednesday. #AR3492 remains the most complex of these regions and has beta-gamma magnetic configuration. #AR3490 and #AR3497 were combined into one region and retains #AR3490 as its number. All three regions in close proximity to each other (3490, 3492, 3495) produced a number of low to mid level C-Flares during the past 12 hours. Moderate M-Flares will remain possible during the next 24 hours."
Current Solar Flare Threat
C-Flare: 99%
M-Flare: 55%
X-Flare: 10%
Proton: 05%
Source:
https://www.solarham.net/
Enormous '#Sunspot archipelago' 15 times wider than Earth could soon bombard us with #SolarFlares
Story by Harry Baker, November 21, 2023
"One of the largest and most densely populated sunspot regions seen in more than a decade has appeared on the sun's nearside to Earth — and has begun to unleash a barrage of solar storms that are shaking up our home star's surface in a big way. The sunspots' emergence could make it an interesting few weeks for Earth, which will soon be in the firing line of these eruptive dark patches.
"The first sunspot group, named #AR3490, rotated onto the sun's nearside on Nov. 18 over the star's northeastern shoulder. The dark patch was quickly followed by another sunspot group, #AR3491, which trailed in its wake, #Spaceweather.com reported.
"Scientists already knew that the sunspot groups were on their way because they had been tracking '#HelioseismicTremors," or ripples in the sun's surface, from the area. The sunspot region is 'so large, it is affecting the way the whole sun vibrates,' Spaceweather.com representatives wrote.
"Since emerging, the sunspot groups have split up and birthed new dark patches, including #AR3492, #AR3495, #AR3496 and #AR3497, which has created a 'solar archipelago of sunspots,' astronomy news site EarthSky reported.
"In total, the massive collection of sunspots spans around 125,000 miles (200,000 kilometers) across, which is more than 15 times wider than Earth, according to Spaceweather.com.
"The sunspots have already spat out at least 16 C-class and 3 M-class solar flares — which are the third and second strongest flare classes, respectively — in the last 4 days, according to SpaceWeatherLive.com. And experts are warning that there could be many more of these flares in the next few weeks, as well as potentially #XClass flares, the strongest type of solar flare.
"The impending flares may also birth coronal mass ejections (#CMEs), or enormous blobs of charged solar particles, that could slam into Earth and trigger strong geomagnetic storms, which could cause radio blackouts and spark vibrant aurora displays.
"Astronomers have also spotted several large loops of plasma, known as #SolarProminences, growing above some of the sunspots in the group. The largest loops tower more than 40,000 miles (64,000 km) above the surface, according to EarthSky, and could snap off and fling into space at any moment, temporarily leaving behind enormous 'canyons of fire' in the sun's surface.
"At least three sunspot groups have also emerged on the sun's southern hemisphere in the last few days.
"The sunspots' emergence is the latest sign that the sun is fast approaching the explosive peak in its roughly 11-year solar cycle, known as the solar maximum, which scientists now predict will begin next year.
"During solar maximum, sunspots become much more frequent and increase in size as the sun's magnetic fields get tangled up, allowing the dark patches to grow more easily.
"The latest dark patches make up 'probably the biggest sunspot region I've seen so far from [the current] solar cycle,' Chris Wicklund, a meteorologist and aurora photographer, wrote on X (formerly known as Twitter). 'The next 14 days could be very interesting,' he added."
Ancient #SolarStorm smashed Earth at wrong part of the sun's cycle — and scientists are concerned
The 9,200-year-old storm left researchers with a stark conclusion: We are not ready for the next one.
By Brandon Specktor
published January 28, 2022
"An extremely powerful solar storm pummeled our planet 9,200 years ago, leaving permanent scars on the #ice buried deep below #Greenland and #Antarctica.
"A new study of those ancient ice samples has found that this previously unknown storm is one of the strongest outbursts of solar weather ever detected and would have crippled modern communications systems if it had hit Earth today.
"But perhaps most surprising, the massive storm appears to have hit during a #SolarMinimum, the point during the sun's 11-year cycle when solar outbursts are typically much less common, according to the study, published Jan. 11 in the journal Nature Communications. Because of this unexpected discovery, the study researchers are concerned that devastating solar storms could hit when we least expect them — and that Earth might not be prepared when the next big one arrives.
"Solar storms occur when magnetic field lines on the sun's corona (the outermost part of the sun's atmosphere) become tangled up and then violently snap back into place. This sudden magnetic reconnection can release huge gouts of plasma and magnetic field known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which surf across space on the sun's ever-gusting #SolarWind.
"If a powerful #CME passes over Earth, it can compress the planet's #MagneticShield, causing what's known as a #GeomagneticStorm.
"Mild geomagnetic storms can damage #satellites and interrupt radio transmissions; severe storms, like the 'Halloween storms' of 2003, can cause widespread #PowerOutages across the world and permanently damage #ElectricalInfrastructure, such as power transformers. Some researchers fear that a sufficiently large solar storm could also ravage the world's undersea internet cables, resulting in an '#InternetApocalypse' that leaves huge chunks of the world population disconnected for months.
"CME outbursts typically peak every 11 years or so, when the sun enters the part of its natural activity cycle known as the solar maximum — the time when magnetic activity in the corona is in high gear.
"Today, satellites can monitor solar outbursts directly. But finding evidence of ancient storms requires some atomic detective work. The authors of the new study looked for evidence of special particles known as #CosmogenicRadionuclides — essentially, radioactive isotopes (versions of elements) created when charged solar particles collide with elements in Earth's atmosphere.
"These radioactive particles can appear in natural records, like tree rings and ice cores. In the study, the authors looked at the latter, analyzing several cores drilled in Antarctica and Greenland. Cores from both locations showed a remarkable spike in the radionuclides beryllium-10 and chlorine-36 around 9,200 years ago, indicating that a powerful solar storm swept across Earth at that time.
"Further analysis of the cores showed that the storm was particularly powerful — perhaps on a par with the most powerful solar storm ever detected, which occurred during a solar maximum between the years 775 B.C. and 774 B.C.
"The newly discovered storm's occurrence during a solar minimum, when magnetic activity on the sun should be low, left the study authors puzzled and alarmed.
"'This [storm] further pushes the magnitude of a potential worst-case scenario for [solar storm] events,' the researchers wrote in the study.
"According to the study authors, it is now essential for researchers to detect more ancient, extreme storms in the ice-core and tree-ring records, to determine if there is some sort of pattern beyond the sun's 11-year cycle that dictates when the most extreme storms will occur."
https://www.livescience.com/ancient-solar-storm-solar-minimum
#SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #CarringtonEffect #LightsOut #KesslerSyndrome
This is the same area that shot out a huge #CME the other day. It was not Earth-facing, but still affected us. However, the sunspot will be facing us THIS WEEKEND! Hold onto your hats!
"BIG FARSIDE SUNSPOT: There's a spot on the farside of the sun so large it is affecting the way the whole sun vibrates. Helioseismic echoes pinpoint the active region in the sun's southern hemisphere not far behind the sun's southeastern limb. It should rotate into view this weekend."
Source: Spaceweather.com
https://spaceweather.com/images2023/26jul23/helioseismic.jpg
#Solar #solarcycle25 #SolarFlares #Spaceweather #CarringtonEffect
#SolarMaximum could hit us harder and sooner than we thought. How dangerous will the sun's chaotic peak be?
The sun is quickly approaching a major peak in solar activity. Experts warn it could potentially begin by the end of 2023, years before initial predictions suggested.
By Harry Baker, June 23, 2023
"Originally, scientists predicted that the current solar cycle would peak in 2025. But a bumper crop of sunspots, #SolarStorms and rare solar phenomena suggest solar maximum could arrive by the end of this year at the earliest — and several experts told Live Science we are poorly prepared. "
• The sun is becoming more active and may reach peak activity sooner than expected.
• Solar maximum was predicted to happen in 2025, but #sunspot activity has changed that.
• An unusual burst of sunspots this year suggests solar maximum could hit by the end of 2023.
#SolarFlares #SolarFlare #SolarCycle24 #CarringtonEvent #CarringtonEffect #LightsOut
Latest #SolarHam news:
Flaring Continues
May 19, 2023 @ 03:30 UTC
"At least nine M-Flares during the past 24 hours, all of which were centered around newly assigned AR 3311. As of this update, the largest event was an M5.3 flare at 00:48 UTC (May 19). So far, none of the flares appear to have generated a coronal mass ejection (CME). An increased chance for an isolated X-Flare is now present."
#SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #SolarFlare #CarringtonEffect #LightsOut #SpaceWeather #NoNukes #NoNewNukes #RethinkNotRestart
Lights Out
Failure to harden electrical structures and spent nuclear fuel storage leaves US, global population vulnerable to solar or terrorist induced apocalypse
by Michael Collins, October 14, 2014
"Should a serpentine #CME hit Earth head-on, the consequences would be catastrophic."
#SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #SolarFlare #CarringtonEffect #LightsOut #SpaceWeather #NoNukes #NoNewNukes #RethinkNotRestart
Read more:
https://www.enviroreporter.com/2014/10/lights-out/
NASA could only give 30-minute warning before solar storm hits Earth
By Stacy Liberatore, May 15, 2023
- NASA revealed its AI system can predict solar storms 30 minutes in advance
- But this may not be enough time to prepare for a devastating #blackout
#SolarFlares #SolarCycle25 #SolarFlare #CarringtonEffect #LightsOut #SpaceWeather
#SolarHam needs our help!
2023 - 2025 (Solar Max) Website Fundraiser
Closes May 31, 2023.
Kevin @ SolarHam: "Running SolarHam is both expensive and time consuming. Although space weather is a passion of mine and I love reporting about the Sun, it is still a full time job and commitment. To put it bluntly, without your support, the SolarHam site will likely not continue in the future.
How To Donate:
Donations can be made securely via PayPal, even if you do not have a PayPal account. If you prefer not to use PayPal, please E-Mail for other options (kevin@solarcycle24.com).
Any donation big or small is greatly appreciated and goes directly towards the daily operation of the SolarHam website."
#SolarFlares #Solar #SolarCycle25 #CarringtonEffect #spaceweather #spacewx #solarstorm
#SolarHam Updates:
Minor Radiation Storm Continues
March 14, 2023 @ 18:50 UTC
Proton levels remain at the minor (S1) radiation storm threshold a full 36 hours following a major coronal mass ejection (CME) on the farside of the Sun. We can use common sense to understand that had the full halo CME estimated to be traveling at least 3000 km/s been Earth directed, we would be talking about a significant radiation storm and more than likely, a severe geomagnetic storm. Earth dodged a solar storm this time around, however the next several years will see more opportunities for major events as we head towards solar maximum."
#SolarFlares #Solar #SolarCycle25 #CarringtonEffect #spaceweather #spacewx #solarstorm
#Spaceweather news:
"EXTREMELY RARE' FARSIDE CME: Something big just happened on the farside of the sun. During the early hours of March 13th, SOHO coronagraphs recorded a farside halo CME leaving the sun faster than 3000 km/s.
"MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on March 15th and 16th in response to a number of incoming CMEs. NOAA forecasters believe that 2 or 3 glancing blows are possible, individually weak but collectively effective.
"FARSIDE SUNSPOTS: The source of yesterday's farside CME (described below) is a mystery, but there are two leading suspects. Helioseismic maps reveal a pair of large active regions on the far side of the sun.
"Both will rotate around to the Earthside of the sun within a week, potentially bringing potent sunspots into our planet's 'strike zone.' In the meantime we will keep an eye out for CMEs flying over the edge of the sun, indicating additional farside activity.
"Because of its extreme speed, this CME is classified as 'extremely rare,' a fast-mover that occurs only once every decade or so. A NASA model of the event shows the CME heading almost directly away from Earth. Good thing!
"Although the CME was not Earth-directed, it has nevertheless touched our planet.
"NOAA's GOES-16 satellite has detected the particles reaching Earth--all from the CME's backside. Imagine what a frontside blast would have been like. Earth's magnetic field is funneling the particles toward the poles where a type of radio blackout is underway--a polar cap absorption (PCA) event.
"Airplanes flying over these regions may find that their shortwave radios won't work due to the ionizing effect of infalling protons. This PCA could persist for a day or more."
#SolarFlares #Solar #SolarCycle25 #CarringtonEffect #spaceweather #spacewx #solarstorm
