LWX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH (RADAR INDICATED), hail: <.75 IN (RADAR INDICATED)] for Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery [MD] and Loudoun [VA] till 4:15 PM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/f/2025-O-NEW-KLWX-SV-W-0044_2025-05-03T19:27Z
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Convective Risk at May 3, 19:20z for portions of LWX
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day3otlk_20250503_1930.html
LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 3, 3:18 PM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505031918-KLWX-FPUS71-NOWLWX
LWX issues Short-term Forecast (NOW) at May 3, 2:57 PM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505031857-KLWX-FPUS71-NOWLWX
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #667 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE [watch prob: 40%] [Most Prob: Hail: 1.00-1.75 IN, Gust: 55-70 MPH]
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at May 3, 17:21z for portions of LWX
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day2otlk_20250503_1730.html
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Slight Convective Risk at May 3, 16:28z for portions of LWX
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250503_1630.html
LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 3, 10:30 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505031430-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Slight Convective Risk at May 3, 12:50z for portions of LWX
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250503_1300.html
NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
356 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025
MARINE
Southerly gradient winds will increase today, with a very favorable setup for southerly channeling expected this afternoon into this evening. Winds of 25 to 35 knots out of the south a few thousand feet above the surface will likely be drawn toward the surface by subsidence over the cooler waterways due to developing bay/river breezes since the land/water temp difference will be 20+ deg F this afternoon. This downward transport and enhancement from the channeling and bay/river breeze should overcome shallow stability and could even result in a few gusts near gale force early this evening over the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay. Enhanced southerly flow will continue through the day Sunday for at least part of the waters, with southeast flow possibly nearing SCA levels Monday.
Otherwise, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated over the next few days, resulting in the potential for hazardous winds, waves, lightning, and reduced visibility in heavy rain at times.
Winds remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria both Tuesday and Wednesday. Southwest winds on Tuesday shift to northwest on Wednesday.
Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
356 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025
NEAR TERM
Early morning GOES-16 IR/nighttime microphysics RGB imagery shows rather large expanses of mainly clear skies across much of the Mid-Atlantic east of I-81 and roughly north of I-64. Mid/high level clouds leftover from prior convection are streaming NNE up the Appalachians, with another area of clouds over southern VA working north but dissipating. These mainly clear skies will play an important role in heating and the evolution of convection later today.
…Heating may allow storms to begin initiating as early as midday or shortly thereafter, though some lingering subsidence or capping aloft may keep stronger updrafts at bay until mid afternoon. Storms are most likely to initiate in the vicinity of a surface trough oriented roughly along the Blue Ridge as of early this morning.
…Guidance differs on exactly where any heavier rainfall totals may focus, but in a broad sense this looks most likely west of I-95 and east of the Appalachians. If more widespread organized convection develops this afternoon and early evening, then it could result in a conglomerate outflow and subsequent renewed convection shifting further east closer to the more vulnerable urban basins tonight…
The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at May 3, 8:17z for portions of LWX
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at May 3, 8:17z for portions of LWX
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
LWX issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at May 3, 4:00 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505030800-KLWX-FLUS41-HWOLWX
LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 3, 3:56 AM EDT
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505030756-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX
LWX issues Marine Weather Statement (MWS) at May 3, 2:33 AM EDT ...OCCASIONAL SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505030633-KLWX-FZUS71-MWSLWX
HAGERSTOWN MD May 2 Climate Report: High: 85 Low: 63 Precip: 0.01" Snow: Missing
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202505030622-KLWX-CDUS41-CLIHGR
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Slight Convective Risk at May 3, 6:00z for portions of LWX
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2025/day1otlk_20250503_1200.html
