Lmst

Good Muggy Morning SARS2PAians! ☁️💐☁️

I hope you are having a safe Spring!

The top news lately are the newest variants causing country-wide summer waves including Spain: https://ibb.co/hRpvjt5

They are KP.3.x.y and LB.x.y.

These new immune evasive variants are filling up hospitals and causing notable increases in deaths.

KP.3 is now the variant "grandfather" that is the fastest, the most immune evasive, and the most easily bound to cells. Specifically, the most watched upcoming variant is its grandchild, KP.3.1.1.

The newest variants that have a very good chance of causing a sizeable increase in numbers, if not a full blown-out wave, are variants of KP.3 that already have immune evasive mutations (FLuQE) but also have an advantageous specific spike deletion (S:S31del).

These new and fastest variants are immune evasive to BOTH current vaccinations, AND prior infections.

Nationally, KP.2 is still just barely at the top of the leaderboard. KP.2.3 is right behind it, already a variant that is being watched.: https://ibb.co/p0d8G8n

🔴KP.3.1.1 is absolutely blazing fast and burning through Spain, Portugal and other countries, and is part of KP-DEL31.

_____

NOTE: "KP-DEL31" is gonna be my nickname for it, not variant hunters or virologists. Just to call it something easily condensed and recognizeable for now. They might decide on a different nickname soon. These names are just for convenience. (You don't call your cousin Mister James Robert Smith every time, do you? You call him JimBob or Smitty. It just makes talking easier.)

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I've highlighted FLiRT in pink on the national screenshot but I'll drop it soon as KP-DEL31 becomes more and more relevant.

There's no specific results for PA on the Tableau site. Probably not enough testing here.

In NY/NJ, I've highlighted KP-DEL31 in green on the NY/NJ leaderboard, and as you can see, all the top 5 variants there have this very important spike deletion. But KP.3.1.1 is the variant to keep eyes on.: https://ibb.co/Jcv0rF7

KP.3.1.1 is already found (in only a few days!) in TX, NY, CA, CO, NJ, WA, and VA.

🔴If you've dropped wearing respirators for now you might want to reconsider putting them back on as KP.3.1.1 makes gains and spring moves along.

________________

#Wastewater

Wastewater has returned to HIGH levels in the Eastern and Southern states. KP.2, KP.3 and LB.x.y variants are working together on driving this.: https://ibb.co/0nHqQPS

In our region, specifically testing in Maryland is showing a return to higher levels.: https://ibb.co/99MSpy0

The PA wastewater dashboard is showing LARGE increases in Philly, and sizeable increases in Centre and Indiana counties.: https://ibb.co/0J14Tty

MASK UP, oh my Philly ❤️️!

________________

#Vaccines

Whoa I had a whole angry thing typed out here and juuuuuuust checked back on Twitter, and Dr. Eric Topol wrote just 2 hrs ago that the US FDA has changed its decision for the upcoming vaccine base!!: https://ibb.co/xzB6GVb

The newest mRNA vaccines will be based on KP.2 and NOT JN.1!

This is a wise decision and fantastic news!!

This will certainly better prepare us for Summer.

(NOTE: **Novavax** will have a JN.1 based booster. Novavax is completely different as it has proven effective through multiple years with ONE base so that vaccine will probably not have to be changed as often.)

_______________
🔴Even with vaccines, there are always other things we can do to practice source control!

keep those windows OPEN

wear a respirator

keep the air clean

move meetings outside

work from home

build a Corsi-Rosenthal box

stay home if you are sick!

Continue to have a great and safe Spring!! 💐💐💐

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA #Pennsylvania #PA
#FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t
#FLuQE #Q493E
#KP2 #KP3 #LB1 #Moderna #Pfizer #Novavax
#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 6/7/2024!

Good morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you're enjoying this beautiful Spring 💐💐💐

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VOCs

Nationally, KP.2 barely holding on to the top slot on the leaderboard at 8.22%. Fast, immune-evasive LB.1 is directly behind and most likely will take over in a week or less.: https://ibb.co/Q6ZZhsN

Immune-evasive KP.3 is also on the way up.

In PA, KP.3 and LB.1 has not been found in hte (horribly low) random testing we're doing. LB.1 did show up earlier, and "not finding" doesn't mean it's not around, but to not find such a fast variant in qualtities to put it on the PA board is promising.: https://ibb.co/ZN8Nrfp

In NY/NJ, LB.1 has easily displaced KP.2 for the top slot, with LB.1 at almost 17% of share and KP.2 behind at 9%.: https://ibb.co/mRR03KB

Lots of new mutations added in the past few weeks to the latest CDC NOWCAST.: https://ibb.co/b7y1mXb

Even on here, KP.3 is shown to be predicted as the TOP circulating variant, with KP.2 sandwiched between it and also-new-and-evasive LB.1.

Due to antigenic drift/effective ACE2 binding/communal laxness in prevention, this is probably going to bump numbers up for the summer.

Eevn though numbers a still low nationally, Walgreens COVID19 dashboard has already had large increases of positivity in a large number of States.: https://ibb.co/WHcFZK3

Pennsylvania has been considered at a large increase for quite a while already on there.: https://ibb.co/mc0CbPq

JN.1.50, KP.3.2 and KP.2.3 (yes those numbers are weirdly reversed) are also very fast, very immune-landscape-elusive mutes to watch, too.

I hope that I'm wrong but it seems that we'll be drowning in a soup of fast varaints for the fall/winter. My opinion only: This winter might be...something else...if the wrong vaccine formula is used.

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Wastewater

Though numbers in PA are still relatively low, WastewaterSCAN has SARS2 levels at MEDIUM. Maryland/DC is starting to tick upward fast.: https://ibb.co/55JvPbt

PA WSS has McKean County showing heavy SARS2 material increases in wastewater, and moderstew increases in Philly.: https://ibb.co/8Pdz6MR

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Vaccine News

The most reliable viral geneticists and epidemiologists I'm watching has already said a JN.1 vaccine will be outdated.: https://ibb.co/vBgbr2g

🔴THIS IS NOT DUE TO VACCINES BEING INHERENTLY INEFFECTIVE. Do not spread that disnformation.

This is due to the superfast antigenic drift of SARS2, and also us being too slow to communally react to this virus. If a JN.1 vaccine is produced it will hardly effect any useful protection at all.: https://ibb.co/1dFTRKm

The fast rate which this virus gains mutations is absolutely not slowing down, and will most likely never slow down.

It is VITAL that corporate science (as in, the corporate producers of vaccines) keep up with mutations and if need be, drop outdated mutation bases FAST to change formula to one that will actually work effectively.

It is NECESSARY to even being the conversation now with KP.2.

We cannot afford to be slow in considering vaccination formulas or distribution.

Keeping the air clean is decidedly easier in better weather, but if numbers are going up in your area, PLEASE use some sort of source control. Wear a quality respirator, stay home if you are sick, test repeatedly with symptoms!

Enjoy your Spring and keep that air clean! 💐💐💐

#COVID19 #COVID #COVIDisNotOver #SARS2PA #Pennsylvania #PA #FLiRT #F456L #R346T
#spike_f456l #spike_r346t
#Q493E

#KP2 #KP3 #LB1

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #VaccinesSaveLives #StayHomeIfSick !

update for 5/31/2024!!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you are enjoying your Spring! 💐💐💐

I just have an update on VOCs as I have to run out the door, and also not much has changed in terms of numbers yet. I'm so sorry this is all I have time for right now.

Nationally, for VOCs, we have a lot of fast movers that might bump up numbers for the summer as they have elsewhere globally already. Looks like the fastest are going to be KP.3 and especially LB.1.: https://ibb.co/wzcJ05J

While we don't have any immensely increased numbers so far, nationally they are starting to slowly rise, and source control will be needed as these immune evasive and FAST variants catch on.

In PA, we have quite a few of the FLiRT variants (in pink) and upcoming immune evasive variants (in teal) coming up. Numbers for these new variants are low but might rise steadily as the spring goes on.: https://ibb.co/h1XS2hP

IN NY/NJ, LB.1 is already at the top of the chart 👀 and the speed of its rise is incredible considering how fast current variants are already!: https://ibb.co/dpRDrPd

Watching these new mutations will give a big clue on when to tighten up source control.

In the meantime, keep that air clean and just for future safety, keep a stock of N95s handy for H5N1 as it spreads through more and more domesticated animal species, the lastest which is alpacas. This is starting to make epidemiologists and viral geneticists kinda nervous.

Insist on full disclosure of animal health/testing/sequencing from farms. You might consider non-dairy milk, or maybe ultra-pasteurized milk. Another option is UHT, shelf-stable milk in sterile packaging (like Parmalat).

:coronavirus: DO NOT CONSUME RAW MILK OR UNDERCOOKED MEAT.:coronavirus:

Hope to have more time to do this on Moday (but not sure) so have a great weekend and be safe! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1 #JNOne50

#IFYouAreDrinkingRawMilk__STOP__DOING__IT

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/24/2024!

Good morning SARS2PAians! (well, afternoon by the time I got all this ready)

I hope you are having a BEAUTIFUL and healthy day. 💐💐💐

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VOCs

Nationally, KP.2 is in the lead so far, easily displacng JN.1 variants.: https://ibb.co/JCWtxdr

KP.3 and LB.1 (DeFLiRT) are making FAST gains in the leaderboard, now up to around 5% each nationally.

They are still the top two successful variants that show great potential to take over from even KP.2.: https://ibb.co/kxHkfV1

🔴JN.1.50 is new, and was just designated on 5/18 and though genetically it's as fast as LB.1 and KP.3, it remains to be seen in meatspace how it will spread.

In PA, JN.1 still in the lead here in random sequencing at 20% and KP.2 behind it at 13%.: https://ibb.co/G7Nnft5

Unfortunately KP.3 has been found here. So we now have BOTH very fast DeFLiRT variants here for the summer, KP.3 and LB.1. Take care, keep windows open, clean the air, wear a quality respirator and be aware of social contacts. These two variants might push the numbers up this summer.

In NY/NJ, KP.2 in the lead and look at that LB.1....in second place at 10% of random testing already. Yikes. It's been making very fast gains for a while now there.: https://ibb.co/8xRfkkh

Some parts of Jersey have noticeable upticks of matarial concentraion on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/7STgtLZ

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Wastewater

Trying to get as much info as possible here since almsot everything useful is being discontinued. 🙄

SARS2 has been bumped up to MEDIUM nationally on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/Wf5MdxN

There are noticeable upticks starting to happen in the Harrisburg and Chester areas.: https://ibb.co/g3HQZp0

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Non-SARS2 Pathogens

Gastro pathogens Noro and Rotavirus are still in the HIGH category on WastewaterSCAN. Please wash hands carefully, wash fruits and veg, and be aware of kitchen cleanliness discipline to avoid cathing these bugs. Mostly because they're just gross 🤢

🔴Concerning H5N1 (HPAI, "bird flu"), we are NOT in flu season, so seeing upticks for Influenza A is extremely concerning.

This is what the FluA graphs SHOULD look like now in a normal post-FLuA season.: https://ibb.co/X4Q8szS

H5N1 is an influenza A. It's been upgraded to MEDIUM on WastewaterSCAN.: https://ibb.co/wKC300x

However, the online tool makes no differentiation between H5N1 and other types of FLuA. It also cannot tell live virus from inactivated virus or its fragments.

It's extremely telling, though, that the highest concentration of FluA is located exatly where herd breakouts have or are occuring, mostly in the middle of the country in the plains corridor.

To reduce the risk of contracting, transmlitting, or allowing H5N1/HPAI to mutate,

🔴🔴🔴DO NOT DRINK RAW MILK.🔴🔴🔴

I don't give a flying fart if it's legal to sell/buy here in PA. Do NOT be that guy. Do NOT encourage this pathogen to mutate and DO NOT endanger your own life or everyone else's by consuming raw or unpasteurized dairy products.

Use caution in handling raw dairy products, especially meat and milk. Pasteurization has been proven to kill FluA and fluA is very sensitive to heat, but please use caution, fully cook raw meat, and use good sanitary habits when working with raw farm products.

As always, some method of source control is always good to help keep these pathogens in check whether they're just annoying and gross OR have a high kill rate.

I hope you stay safe, enjoy the open windows in Spring, and ARE NOT DRINKING RAW MILK.

Have a great week!!

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1 #JNOne50

#IFYouAreDrinkingRawMilk__STOP__DOING__IT

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good morning SARS2PAians!

I hope your very cloudy annd humid Spring is going well. 💐💐💐

The only thing I have right now are VOC visuals.

Nationally, KP.2 in the lead at 12% of random sequencing. The FLiRT variants are not far behind and VERy fast variants KP.3 and LB.1 are still making fast gains even after only a few days.: https://ibb.co/309Ygcj

In PA, classic JN.1 is still at the lead here. We don't have KP.3 here but we do have fast mover LB.1 which is now over 5% of random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/CpyDWkH

IN NY/NJ, immune evasive variants LB.1 already at over 7% of testing and KP.3 almost at 5%.: https://ibb.co/LZ1hZM7

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Wastewater

Biobot has released a statement saying they are stopping keeping up their COVID-19 wastwater visuals. There's still WastewaterSCAN but only three sheds are on there.: https://ibb.co/2tYPPcm

https://biobot.io/from-raw-data-to-actionable-insights-biobots-evolution-of-public-data-sharing/

This is another removal of a GREAT tool that helped everyone stay informed, and gave a heads-up when to buckle down on source control issues.

A very good potential replacement for Biobot is Iowa Covid-19 Tracker and I'll start to try to get familiar with that as soon as I can sit down to do it so the vizzes might look very different soon.: https://iowacovid19tracker.org/

I hope to have more info on Friday, and until then have a GREAT week and safe Spring! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1

#Biobot #IowaCOVIDTracker

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/17/2024!

Good morning SARS2PAians!

I hope you are staying healthy during this very cloudy and rainy period! 🌦🌧☁️☔️

VOCs

Nationally, the FLiRT group (in pink on the graph), which is the first group that can cause a rise in summer numbers in a few wweeks, is still pushing closer and closer to the top of the chart. FLiRT variant KP.2 is already at almost 10% nationally in random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/Wxtgg1N

The second group (KP.3, LB.1, JN.1.32) that can push up summer numbers is not far behind and is FAST.

To complicate issues even more:

It's been advised where I'm cruising around for this info that the second group is not only VERY immune-evasive to current variant antibodies, but also returning to a more lung-based symptom set rather a gut-based set. JN.1 is mainly centered in the gut, which makes wastewater monitoring more sensitive and more accurate.

A return to a more lung-based centered illness is a bad thing and will make wastewater testing not-as-sensitive as it was for JN.1 relatives.

In PA, KP.2 is already in the lead of random sequencing results at 16% of share.: https://ibb.co/6XpWGfF

We already have LB.1 here so it's oging to very important to track this fast moving and immune evasive variant.

In NY/NJ, KP.3 and LB.1 in fifth and sixth places on the leaderboard. Their rise is increasing quickly as they're up to over 4% of varaint share, up from 3% a week ago.: https://ibb.co/9gsdZ0W

A 1% increase in such a short amount of time in a field of already very fast variants is noteworthy. In a race of thoroughbreds, varaints like this are the potential triple-crown winners.

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Wastewater

Wastewater levels are still very good (low.) Nationally we're at the same level as last year but not low enough to match 2021 yet.: https://ibb.co/Y3Tv51h

In PA, not much to say. EVERYONE is smashing it. Bucks county area a bit higher than naitonal levels and trending upwards. PLEase use precaution and some sort of source control so these numbers don't go back up.: https://ibb.co/hd2FcNh

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That's all I have this morning, so I hope you have a GREAT week! I apologize for not updating consistently as data is harder to obtain and H5N1 takes over the foreground of virology conversations (as it should, understandable)!!

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/13/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

I hope your chilly Spring is going well! 💐💐💐

Just a very quick VOC update as there is absolutely nothing really updated to work with this week 🙄

While numbers are still very very low right now (which is great), the virology world and variant hunters are watching a few new mutations lately.

The two most important coming up are KP.3 and LB.1.

Globally, KP.3 is already in 2nd place, very high in places like the UK and Australia, easily growing past previous JN.1 incarnations AND FLiRT variants.: https://ibb.co/ch19ph8

It carries a very rare mutation (S:Q493E) that enhances its fitness and will enable it to grow much fater than previous JN.1 incarnations.: https://ibb.co/9vx0JTn

It is IMMUNE EVASIVE compared to all current acquired immunity, both by vaccination and infection. It's fast enough and evasive enough to probably bump up numbers in June or July.

In the US, KP.3 is in relatively low numbers right now: https://ibb.co/XpRF6D6

BUT KP.3 is growing very quickly as the previous variant snapshot show when put together:

4/01-- 0.34%

4/05-- 0.44%

4/12-- 0.63%

4/19-- 1.17%

4/25-- 1.55%

5/03-- 1.64%

5/06-- 2.23%

5/12-- 3.20%

(This is fast in a landscape that's already thoroughly saturated very very vast variants.)

In PA, variant sequencers have not seen KP.3 pop up yet (doesn't mean it's not here, sequencing and testing are soooooo loooow but at least it's not showing up on the leaderboard.): https://ibb.co/4YzwNFN

However, LB.1 (from the FLiRT group but with an important deletion {S:531del}) is another very fast variant that is probably enough to bump up numbers too.

The summer will probably be FLiRT + FLiRT children vs. KP.3 (nicknamed FLuQE) + FLuQE children.

Those two mutation classes together wil probably start pushing up numbers again in early June.

Unfortunately that's all I have for now as it's getting harder and harder to find updated info.

I hope your Spring continues to be healthy! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CovidIsNotOver #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_f456l #spike_r346t

#DeFLiRT #S531del

#FLuQE #SQ493E

#KP3 #LB1

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Update for 5/6/2024!

Good Morning SARS2PAians!

Yes I have an update today aaaaand unfortunately that's kinda never a good thing. You DON'T want to hear from me here!

(I am asking you once again....to please make this hobby of mine obsolete 🙏😔 Filter the air, be aware of social contacts, wear a quality respirator, and wash hands for the gastro stuff.)

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VOCs

We are dealing with FLiRT now, but there are two groups of incoming variants that are becoming concerningly successful in other countires including right next door in Canada.: https://ibb.co/fkG3gpg

One is an earlier-new group consisting of JN.1.32 and KP.3.

Another, far off-new yet, is KW.1 and its child, KW.1.1.

All of these variants have been proven faster than FliRT in Australia, UK, etc. KP.3 is exceptionally fast.

🔴Due to antigenic drift, vaccines and previous infection are NOT as effective to protect you with these upcoming variants.

🔴This does NOT mean vaccines don't work, so do not go spreading that. (You should also be mightily shunned for spreading that.)

Again: Vaccines are safe and effective...but these incoming variants are starting to yet again DRIFT TOO FAR AWAY from the current XBB vaccines.

I've highlighted the upcoming concerning variants in teal, as opposed to the FLiRT group which is in pink. KW.1.1 isn't above the fold yet nationally at 0.16% so I made a note on the image so I remember to keep track of this number.

Nationally, JN.1.7 and JN.1 are a tthe top of the board. JN.1.32 at 2.23% and KP.3 also at 2.23%. KW.1 at a little under half a percent. These numbers might be higher in actual meatspace because there is not nearly enough labwork/sequencing available to make laser-focused predictions.: https://ibb.co/bRpvDP7

In PA, we do not have group 2 of the far-off variants yet here but we do have KP.2. Gotta watch this one.: https://ibb.co/3kPMBwM

In NY/NJ, whoa, KP.3 already clocking in at over 3%, in the top 10 of random sequencing already. I haven't been watching this one so when I have more time I'll go back and check this one out.: https://ibb.co/qM7C4CY

KP.2 already at over 10%. That's fast, and antigenic drift is absolutely not helping here as any protection we might have had against this new stuff is starting to slip away.

We might be in for a bump up in numbers this spring, as something similar last year happened too.

Just giving everyone a heads-up on what we might be in for this spring/summer.

We can keep it in control by practicing some very comon-sense, easy things!

Have a safe spring!! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l

#KP2 #KP3 #JNOne32 #JN132 #KS1

#KW1 #KW11

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Morning/Afternoon SARS2PAians!!

I hope you are enjoying this GORGEOUS Spring weather 💐💐💐

1/2 Update for May 3, 2024!

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:all_the_things: State of the Subreddit/Fediverse posts:

There's not much new to report for COVID right now except some closely watched new mutations, so basically TL;DR is that COVID levels are very very low, enjoy it but please keep source control safety always on the backburner.

So. I don't mean to only have this as a once-a-week thing but it's kind of turning into that. I also don't mean to have people waste their time checking in here if I don't post, but I'm always hesitant to call it a once-a-week-thing as COVID is so volatile and mutations can always manifest something very weird in a short amount of time.

I have no idea when info will be available so I'm keeping it a "twice-a-week thing", Monday and Friday but sometimes I just don't have enough info/anything new/time for a Monday, so Friday is always much better for a full post for me.

I hope you continue to find this informative useful and I suuuuuper apologize if you check in and I don't post. 🙏

But even better, go check out the links for yourself and follow people smarter than me for COVID stuff!

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VOCs

Nationally, JN.1 and JN.1.7 still at the top of the leaderboard. FLiRT variants JN.1.4 and KP.2 keeps chipping away at their lead.: https://ibb.co/JqWkBSD

KP.2 seems to be the fastest mover of the whole FLiRT mutation block and the one the virology world is keeping their eyes on.

In PA, we don't have KP.2 showing up on Rajnarayanan's Tableau site so far, whcih is good but we still have quite a few FLiRTs here.: https://ibb.co/vP5yH4G

In NY/NJ, we can see here KP.2 has climbed above all the other FLiRTs, is in 4th place at >8% and is right behind JN.1 now.: https://ibb.co/ZzLcRxJ

The WHO is now looking to JN.1 being the next mutation that will be the base of the newest COVID vaccine.: https://www.who.int/news/item/26-04-2024-statement-on-the-antigen-composition-of-covid-19-vaccines

🔴PLEASE GET VACCINATED if available. Don't be a tuff guy. Go get it.

Upcoming fast variants are KP.3 and JN.1.32👀, which are not FLiRTs but very fast. I have them highlighted in teal on the charts as they are both already up to almost 5% of national sequencing.

In PA, we have JN.1.32 in low but measurable amounts at a little over 3% of random sequencing and these two variants wil have to be watched.

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CDC

CDC has stopped requiring reporting COVID hospital admissions, hospital capacity or hospital occupancy data at the beginning of May. 🙄 This plus nowhere near enough testing and sequencing makes this....hard to keep up with the virus.

"Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data to HHS through CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). CDC encourages ongoing, voluntary reporting of hospitalization data. Data voluntarily reported to NHSN after May 1, 2024, will be available starting May 10, 2024, at COVID Data Tracker Hospitalizations."

"The source of hospital information on the COVID Data Tracker home page will change from the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) to COVID-NET. Instead of displaying national counts of new hospital admissions, it will show COVID-19 hospitalization rates per 100,000 people. More information on COVID-Net is available on COVID-NET Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 Hospitalizations."

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home 🙄

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Other Pathogens

WastewaterSCAN now has SARS2 as LOW! YEAH! :canparrot:

Also FluB and RSV! Woohoo! :canparrot:

Still HIGH though are FluA, Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV), parainfluenza, and gastro bugs Noro and Rotavirus.: https://ibb.co/By0g9Xt

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H5N1 follows in second post......

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #HMPV #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l

#H5N1 #CleanFeedNOW

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

I hope your spring is healthy and productive! 💐💐💐

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VOCs

Nationally, the most concerning variants are, as I posted last week, the FLiRT variants that have specific mutations enabling fast transfer. JN.1.4 and KP.2 are already almost at 10% of variant share but remember the amount of testing and sequencing right now is dismal and it makes everything harder to evaluate.: https://ibb.co/KDt0Bh4

FLiRT variants are highlighted in pink on my screenshot. Expect these to push further and further near the top in the next few weeks (and the CDC NOWCAST confirms this prediction.)

In PA, we still have a few FLiRTs here and you can already see them starting to move toward the top of the variant chart.: https://ibb.co/kc9CQyZ

In NY/NJ, FLiRTs KP.2, JN.1.4, JN.1.16.1, and JN.1.18 already account for ~20% of random sequencing.: https://ibb.co/TrcS9rW

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Wastewater

The GOOD news is COVID is stil fairly low; we've gone below the higher level of two years ago, and are at the lower level of last year at this time!: https://ibb.co/Q83BR3k

We still must watch to see if the FLiRT crew push this metric upwards.

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CDC

The new hospital admits map has changed. High increases all through Central PA excepting Centre Co. and also over tehre in Mercer Co. Philly and Pitt looking very good!: https://ibb.co/Xp8tCJV

The Inpatient Beds Map looks pretty good, some increases in McKean, Potter, and Cameron counties and also around Somerset and Cambria Cos.: https://ibb.co/fD7JYTf

ICU beds over all showing stability, with lots of counties in Central PA and the old coal region on the decrease! Some increases from Lycoming over to McKean though.: https://ibb.co/jMTdyCT

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NOWCAST

The CDC Nowcast is now including multiple fast-moving FLiRT variants in its tracking: KP.2, KP.1.1, KQ.1, JN.1.18.: https://ibb.co/wBY45FV

According to current estimates, these variants combined account for over a third of illnesses already.

These are moving FAST.

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NonSARS2 Pathogens

More good news: according to WastewaterSCAN, there are now lots of pathogens considered LOW nationally!

Just be warned that they are still showing HIGH in the Northeast, like FluB, which is LOW nationally but regionally still HIGH. Hopefully these numbers will lower even more as the Spring enables more outdoor/well ventilated activity.: https://ibb.co/vYGmTd1

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H5N1

H5N1 particles have been found in dairy milk, and are assumed to be inactivated due to the pasteurization process.

We MUST demand healthy cows, testing and tracking of sick herds, and transparency from the meat and dairy insustries.

This is not necessarily to keep H5N1 out of dairy products.

The more IMMINENT concern than being found in dairy milk is letting this thing percolate until it gains new mutations, whether to infect swine or enable human-to-human transfer.: https://ibb.co/FVbNnky

Some things you can do that are obviously proactive and not panicking about this:

🔴Demand clean feed for cattle and swine.

🔴Demand transparent testing, tracing of cattle illness.

🔴Demand high levels of sampling and sequencing of sick herds.

🔴AVOID raw dairy products. Seriously, people, DO NOT contribute to this thing by consuming raw dairy products, even if your State allows its sale (and Pennsylvania DOES as far as I know!)

🔴Try ultra-pasteurized milk, it's the most common milk sold in European countries.

Here's a nifty guide that compares pasteurized/ultra-pasteurized/UHT (ultra high temperature) methods of treating dairy products:

https://www.britannica.com/technology/pasteurization

🔴Avoid undercooked or rare meats. Meats must be heated to 162 degrees for at least 15 seconds to destroy pathogens like tuberculosis.

🔴Switch to providers that are not battery farms and practice humane farming. This is NOT just to be kind to animals (although that's a huge bonus), it is PRACTICAL and keeping herds not densely packed will lessen disease transmission. So far, H5N1 has a 50% kill rate even in non-bird species and we MUST keep outbreaks of it controlled.

I hope you have a FANTASTIC, well-ventilated, healthy and fun Spring!! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #HMPV #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l

#H5N1 #CleanFeedNOW

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

Good Afternoon SARS2PAians!

It's going to get a bit chilly the next few days , butin spite of that I hope you're haivng a great Spring! 💐💐💐

🔴Reminder: If you've built a Corsi-Rosenthal box, you can get lots of seasonal allergy relief by running it! CR boxes have many, many practical uses besides just controlling air particles that carry pathogens.

There was nothing much new to post on Monday plus I had a bunch of family things to handle (and doing this, admittedly takes time) so I apologize again for not posting. But you know the saying "no news is good news" and that defintiely applies to these updates.

I'm going to try and update the link list ASAP.

I hope you still find all this useful and informative. I hope the medical community finds these accurate and reliable.

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VOCs

While we are experiencing a MOST welcome lull in COVID numbers right now, disease modelers are predicting a bump up in numbers at the end of this month.: https://ibb.co/YpnpfMF

This is due to a variant block that have specific mutations. Together they are nicknamed the FLiRT group and are named so because their most important mutations are located at S:F456L and S:R346T within the structure of the pathogen.

🔴Right now FLiRT mutes have an 8% advantage even over JN.1. That's fast.: https://ibb.co/NshJLK6

The most important VOCs out there right now are the variants that have the FLiRT designation, and I've highlighted these mutes on these screenshots in pink.

Remember that there is nowhere near the amount of national testing or sequencing that should be implemented, so it makes trying to predict growth activity more difficult.

Nationally, lots of FLiRT mutations out there. It is unknown whether they are fast enough to cause a wave altogether, but they're fast enough to compete with JN.1 to eventually take over quite a bit of the current leaderboard.: https://ibb.co/S7kCkpH

In PA, we have quite a few FLiRT mutation here but these mutes are in relatively low numbers, so far.: https://ibb.co/bdhJwKv

In NY/NJ, FLiRT mute JN.1.4 already in second place on the leaderboard at over 9% of random sequencing. The other FLiRT variants will undoubtedly catch up.: https://ibb.co/ZBgYP2G

Here you can see FLiRT's innate growth advantage compared to JN variants.: https://ibb.co/3swYQ4r

Here you can see JN.1's innate growth advantage compared to older variants.: https://ibb.co/DfH6j53

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Wastewater

Nationally we're still on the bottom of the lull. This might be the lowest point of the whole year as our numbers ongoing could match 2022/2023, where we had quite a bump up in the middle of the summer (because, reminder: COVID doesn't have a "season", it can bump those numbers up anytime it gets lucky with a new mutation!).: https://ibb.co/3mVzfx9

In PA, wastewater still low pretty much everywhere which is great. MontCo SMASHING it, going way below national levels!!: https://ibb.co/TbrQgk7

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CDC

The counties showing high increase in hospital admits has shifted around. Now the counties with the highest increases are along the NY border and down in the Southwest corner surrounding Greene Co. Adams and York also showing high end increases. Philly corner showing moderate increases.: https://ibb.co/cQRgbwM

The % inpatient beds map looks very good! stable or decreasing everywhere, except some increases in Columbia Co up going Northeast to Wayne Co.: https://ibb.co/Q8JMZvh

Staffed ICU beds in the vast majority of counties steady or going down...except Columbia, Luzerne and Wyoming in the eastern half of the State and Centre, Clearfield and Jefferson in Central PA.: https://ibb.co/5kXgcYR

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Other Pathogens

We're still high in non-SARS2 respiratory pathogens according the WastewaterSCAN. FluA, FluB, and Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) are still HIGH.

Gastro stuff is very high too, Norovirus and Roitavirus.

🔴Keep the air clean, be aware of social contacts and wear a quality respirator in crowds and in places where air filteration is suboptimal. Stay home of you are sick to beat the respiratory stuff.

🔴WASH HANDS with warm water and soap for at least 20 seconds to beat Noro and Rota. Rinse off fruits and veg before you eat them. Be aware of food handling safety in the kitchen. Don't send kids to school with this.

Mostly because...Noro and Rota are not only extremely contagious, they're also just...gross. 🤢

I hope you have a GREAT and safe Spring!! 💐💐💐

#covid #Covid19 #SARS2PA #CDC #CovidIsNotOver #Wastewater #Pennsylvania #PA #JN1 #FluA #FluB #Influenza #Norovirus #Rotavirus #HMPV #FLiRT #F456L #R346T #spike_r346t #spike_f456l

#WearAMask #CleanTheAir #WashHands #StayHomeIfSick !

CDC announces official detection of BA.286 variant in the US

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/new-covid-variant-masking-high-risk-people

BA.286 has 30 novel mutations. The last time a Covid strain had this many mutations was the original Omicron strain that launched the second wave of infection. However, SO FAR, BA.286 seems to be failing to outcompete EG.5.1, FL.1.5.1, and XBB.1.5, the three significant variants with the #F456L #spike #mutation.

(The bad news is, those three variants are currently outcompeting everything else and contributing heavily to the new infection wave.)