New account, so new #introduction. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a #SphinxDoc extension that embed #Fediverse comments on your page
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive) See here for more on them!

I speak English fluently, Spanish haltingly, and am trying to learn Chinese

#queer #Chicago

Oh dang, my #introduction post is waaay out of date now. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as

• a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
• a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
• a #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
• bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive)

#queer #Chicago

I used to like #ManifoldMarkets. At first, you played for a currency they called Mana, and you could donate your Mana for real money for a charity. After a while, they determined to split this up in Mana and Prize money, and only prize money could be donated. Now, there's another change. All Prize money I had collected so far is gone, and another currency called Sweepcash replaces this, but can only be used by residents of some American states. So gone are the $36 I had saved up for charity! 😡

Today’s #prediction market: which of the crop of #Conservative candidates will be the final two presented to the membership?

I suspect they’ll want to stick to a centre / right choice, so Badenoch + Tugendhat feels most likely. I suspect the membership would be fuming if they didn’t get a chance to vote for Badenoch as she seems far and away the most popular.

https://manifold.markets/Noit/which-two-candidates-will-conservat-jiecsute0y?r=Tm9pdA

#ukpolitics #ManifoldMarkets

Saw a couple people were trying to get #LibreMonday off the ground. Here's my contribution.

https://manifold.markets/ is a free and open source prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on if something will happen using internet points. The calibration (how accurate the site is) is extremely good. The community is also amazing and extremely kind. I highly recommend you check it out.

Source code: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold
Ref link if you want to give me free internet points: https://manifold.markets?referrer=Rucker

#foss #opensource #predictionmarket #manifoldmarkets

I really *want* to go back to #ManifoldMarkets, but I find myself anxious when I do. I gave myself too much responsibility to make it fun anymore. If I do go back, I am going to mostly be a trader

@foone @niki here, there's been a market on #manifoldmarkets about this for a while: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-chatbotting-replace-ghosting-b?r=YWdlbnR5ZHJhZ29u

Was just listening to an interesting podcast (#HardFork) on #ManifoldMarkets & #PredictionMarkets in general... keen to have a play but thought I would ask if anyone here has a #Manifold referral code they would like me to use? 😁

(For anyone thinking "eh?" - it's a betting prediction market on all aspects of life - not just sports & politics. And it's just play money. Still, probably best avoided for anyone for whom gambling is an issue!)

I have created my first prediction market on #ManifoldMarkets about the share of #solar in Dutch electricity production in 2030. Go ahead and have a bet if you have an opinion on it!

https://manifold.markets/ErwinRossen/will-the-share-of-electricity-produ?r=RXJ3aW5Sb3NzZW4

I want to learn #Rust

Would anyone be interested in a #Rust binding to #ManifoldMarkets and related services?

I could not resist @agdakx's temptation and created a question about the #Haskell #GHC and whether there will be a GHC2023: https://manifold.markets/JoachimBreitner/will-there-be-a-ghc2023-language-ed on #manifoldmarkets

I've been fascinated with the idea of prediction markets lately, and with Manifold Markets in particular. In a nutshell, it's a place where you can ask any question and people can bet their play-money on the outcomes. You don't earn anything with it but it's fun and having a lot of Manifold $ might give you some status as a good forecaster.

One of the things I like about Manifold is that the range of topics is wide, though admittedly centered around EA at the moment. I also really like the way it tries to encourage asking long-term questions by giving you a part of your bets back as loans.

I thought it'd be fun to create some PL and logic questions, so far added these:
- What will be the most popular non JavaScript-like language on Github in 2023? (https://manifold.markets/JesperCockx/what-will-be-the-most-popular-non-j)
- Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050? (https://manifold.markets/JesperCockx/will-an-inconsistency-in-the-calcul)

If you add any PL questions of your own, let me know so I can make a bet!

#PredictionMarket #ManifoldMarkets #github #ProgrammingLanguages #CIC

Lastly, a market about #ads. This one resolves to yes if #Tumblr injects ads into their #ActivityPub exposed feeds

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-tumblr-implementing

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions #advertising

First up, will they allow you to follow an external #ActivityPub account from #Tumblr? This seems most likely to me, of these. I have created two markets, one for EoY 2023, one for EoY 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-exter-6da47e524d0f

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Fediverse #Predictions

We also have markets for whether you can follow a #Tumblr account from an external #ActivityPub account. I picked #Mastodon for convenience. This seems a little less likely to me, as it takes you away from their ads.

Again, 2023 and 2025

2023: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from

2025: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-tumblr-support-following-from-8c2db6d325e1

#ManifoldMarkets #PredictionMarkets #Predictions #Fediverse

Alright everybody, #Tumblr has indicated that they want to support #ActivityPub, but I think we are all a bit skeptical about how that might look. This thread is meant to collect #PredictionMarkets about how aspects of this might work out. They are all hosted on #ManifoldMarkets, so you don't need to worry about staking real money if you don't want to

Note that it will probably take a few days for these to settle, depending on activity

Well this makes me feel great about #ManifoldMarkets

Neat article comparing the accuracy of different #forecasting entities on the #midterms

https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison

Summary:
- #Metaculus is closest
- 538 is just behind them
- #ManifoldMarkets is a fair margin below that
- everyone else is significantly worse

Note: one election cycle is a really small sample and you shouldn't draw huge conclusions without more such cycles