Lmst

#OverConfidence

How Overconfidence Cost One Bank $1.3 Billion - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M_QK4stCJU
#Veritasium #Banking #Overconfidence #Errors #Finances

Bagaimana Mengelola Overconfidence Setelah Serangkaian Profit

#Tradingan - Bagaimana Mengelola #Overconfidence Setelah Serangkaian Profit - Dalam dunia #trading, setiap trader pasti pernah merasakan euforia setelah serangkaian profit. Rasanya luar biasa ketika #strategi yang dijalankan berhasil memberikan hasil positif, #grafik saldo akun meningkat, dan kepercayaan diri melonjak. Namun, di balik momen kemenangan itu, tersembunyi ancaman #psikologis yang sering kali…

https://tradingan.com/bagaimana-mengelola-overconfidence-setelah-serangkaian-profit

🎉 Ah, yes, the classic tale where #AI models are the ultimate enablers of delusional self-confidence! 🤖 Clearly, #ChatGPT is the proud sponsor of every amateur philosopher's journey into the abyss of misguided wisdom 💡—because who needs facts when you have overconfident ignorance? 😂
https://bytesauna.com/post/dunning-kruger #Delusions #AmateurPhilosophy #MisguidedWisdom #Overconfidence #HackerNews #ngated

Driving - perception and self confidence vs the reality

The study found that 86 per cent of men feel safe behind the wheel compared with 78 per cent of women. Yet Department for Transport figures for 2024 show that men accounted for 76 per cent of all road fatalities and 61 per cent of casualties of all severity.

Ban male drivers?

http://archive.today/2025.11.05-200857/https://www.thetimes.com/life-style/driving/article/men-confident-drivers-women-department-transport-figures-fvtcds2bh

#Driving #RoadSafety #Death #Injury #UK #OverConfidence

From the linked article, photo of a man driving with the text

Men ‘are more confident drivers but cause most big crashes’
Department for Transport figures for 2024 show men accounted for 76% of UK road deaths yet a study found 86% of male drivers feel safe behind the wheel

Men are not usually shy to boast about their driving skills but the latest figures suggest they may need to take their foot off the pedal of self-belief.
Research has found that male drivers are more confident than women yet responsible for the majority of serious accidents.
The study found that 86 per cent of men feel safe behind the wheel compared with 78 per cent of women. Yet Department for Transport figures for 2024 show that men accounted for 76 per cent of all road fatalities and 61 per cent of casualties of all severity.

Are we teaching students AI competence or dependence? https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2025/10/17/are-we-teaching-students-ai-competence-or-dependence/
"Universities face a clear decision: do we want graduates who can merely use #AI, or citizens who can think with it?

The first path—continuing current approaches—produces students who appear competent but cannot function intellectually without AI assistance. They become sophisticated content consumers rather than independent thinkers.

The second path requires courage to acknowledge current failures and commitment to genuine educational reform. It means prioritising intellectual struggle over efficient content production, critical evaluation over polished outputs, and sustainable learning over short-term performance gains."
#metacognitiveLaziness #overconfidence #education

Menghindari Bias Emosi dalam Trading Setelah Profit Besar (Overconfidence Trap)

#Tradingan - Menghindari #Bias Emosi dalam #Trading Setelah Profit Besar (#Overconfidence Trap) - Dalam dunia trading, setiap #trader tentu menginginkan momen ketika grafik bergerak sesuai prediksi dan akun mereka menunjukkan angka profit besar. Momen ini sering kali menimbulkan rasa bangga dan kepercayaan diri tinggi, seolah semua #analisis dan #strategi akhirnya membuahkan hasil. Namun,…

https://tradingan.com/menghindari-bias-emosi-dalam-trading-setelah-profit-besar-overconfidence-trap

A quotation from A. A. Milne

Kanga said to Roo, “Drink up your milk first, dear, and talk afterwards.” So Roo, who was drinking his milk, tried to say that he could do both at once … and had to be patted on the back and dried for quite a long time afterwards.

A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
Winnie-the-Pooh, ch. 10 “Christopher Robin Gives a Pooh Party” (1926)

More info about this quote: wist.info/milne-a-a/2842/

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #aamilne #winniethepooh #kanga #roo #milk #drinking #eating, #mouth #overconfidence #mess

E H Shepard illustration of Roo and Kanga

Conspiracy theorists are often overconfident and believe their fringe views are mainstream, overestimating public agreement by a huge margin. This overconfidence acts as a buffer, making them resistant to facts. It's not about being "dumb"—it's a deep-seated trait that makes debunking incredibly difficult. #ConspiracyTheories #CognitiveBias #Overconfidence

#Conspiracy theorists don’t realize they’re on the #fringe

Belief in conspiracy theories is often attributed to some form of motivated reasoning: People want to believe a conspiracy because it reinforces their worldview, for example, or doing so meets some deep psychological need, like wanting to feel unique. However, it might also be driven by #overconfidence in their own cognitive abilities
#conspiracytheories #perception

https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/07/conspiracy-theorists-think-their-views-are-mainstream/

Here’s Why You Should Hate Your Writing

Or at least not love it… Continue reading on The Writing Cooperative »
https://writingcooperative.com/heres-why-you-should-hate-your-writing-07a3c54957b

#ohsoclear #overconfidence #creativeprocess #writingadvice #writinglife
@indieauthors

Believers in false conspiracy theories tend to be overconfident in their own intellect and perception, and to erroneously believe that most people share their conspirational beliefs.

Summary: https://www.psypost.org/conspiracy-believers-tend-to-overrate-their-cognitive-abilities-and-think-most-others-agree-with-them/

Original paper (not open access): https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01461672251338358

#Science #Psychology #Cognition #ConspiracyTheories #Overconfidence

Israel seems to be wanting a war on all sides, there's a word for that; 'Surrounded'.

#DefeatistTactics #WarOnAllFronts #OverConfidence #Arrogance #Israel #IDF #Genocide #War

A quotation from A. A. Milne

“Lucky we know the forest so well, or we might get lost,” said Rabbit half an hour later, and he gave the careless laugh which you give when you know the Forest so well that you can’t get lost.

A. A. Milne (1882-1956) English poet and playwright [Alan Alexander Milne]
House at Pooh Corner, ch. 7 “Tigger Is Unbounced” (1928)

Sourcing, notes: wist.info/milne-a-a/76865/

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #aamilne #pooh #confidence #devilmaycare #doubt #facade #lost #overconfidence #pretense #uncertainty #worry #unconfident #insecure

A quotation from C. C. Colton

When young, we trust ourselves too much, and we trust others too little when old. Rashness is the error of youth, timid caution of age.

Charles Caleb "C. C." Colton (1780-1832) English cleric, writer, aphorist
Lacon: Or, Many Things in Few Words, Vol. 1, § 363 (1820)

Sourcing, notes: wist.info/colton-charles-caleb…

#quote #quotes #quotation #qotd #age #caution #gettingold #growingold #maturity #mistrust #overconfidence #rashness #selfconfidence #timidity #trust #youth

A major pattern which caused the Roman Empire to decline is identical to what is speeding up the decline of U.S. global dominance, beginning with the Trump regime.

If you want to learn more, watching this video can help provide more understanding.

Why the Most Foolish People End Up in Power – Machiavelli Knew This >

https://youtu.be/Ix4nKNDKhTQ

#cognitive_closure #competence_threatening #institutionalised_incompetence #overconfidence vs #competence #democracy vs #populism #organisational_psychology #appearance #intelligence #power_structure #limitation #complexity #flatterers #boot_lickers #leadership_effectiveness #psychology #cognitive_bias #influence #Machiavelli #power_dynamics #bias #expertise #incompetent_leaders #subordinates #threats_to_authority

How do #LLMs' #overconfidence on these medical tasks compare to humans' overconfidence on the same tasks (both lay people and relevant experts)?

Here's an #openAccess paper about the LLM side of this question: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55628-6

Feel free to share papers that directly compare hashtag#LLM and human performance!

#medicine #AI #cogSci #assessment

Overconfidence and gender gaps in career outcomes: insights from a promotion signaling model https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_021&r=&r=lma
"… male #overconfidence, combined with competitive workplace incentives affects gender equality in the labor market: overconfident workers exert more effort, are more likely to be promoted, and ultimately earn higher wages across job levels despite having lower expected ability conditional on promotion. The higher effort not only increases their chances of promotion, but also contributes to human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing, leading to higher productivity
… overconfidence can be a double-edged sword: while it can lead to higher promotions and wages (serving as a “self-serving bias”), it also imposes higher effort costs and discourages peers
… policies aimed at limiting working hours could help mitigate the effects of overconfidence, potentially reducing the gender gap in career progression and #wages."
#LaborMarkets #BoundedRationality #gpg