#Overshoot
so basically:
- #overshoot & #collapse as a #systemsdynamics concept are final & different from oscillation. it is not a thing you want to look forward to.
- although the #systemsdynamics are the same, collapse can happen slow and gradually. it depends on which variable you look at. when you say "collapse" also say 'collapse of what', exactly, bc otherwise it is just vibes-based BS. i am sorry.
when you look at the #limitstogrowth world3 model you can see the graphs tracking the stocks & flows taking different shapes. the time frame of decline is not always the same for all variables.
when the decline happens faster than the growth resulting in an asymmetric curve it is called "the seneca cliff". it’s the shape #collapse takes when decline is accelerated by self-reinforcing feedbacks & lost resilience, making decline faster than growth ever was.
#collapse is not a correction, it is not our chance to reboot civilization, it is a phase shift where our life support systems capacities & feedback structures are fundamentally altered. it is sustained, nonlinear decline to a MUCH LOWER, new equilibrium.
and i am very sorry, but i can't help the feeling that many who celebrate it have no clue what they are talking about.
so as the population grows, its consumption begins to exceed the regenerative capacity of its environment.
so now this is where collapse is different from temporary decline:
when the balancing feedbacks, which would naturally constrain the growth, and normally let the system fluctuate around its equilibrium, kick in too late - the population keeps growing despite its supporting ecosystem eroding. that is what is meant by the system overshooting.
🎙️ #EditionZukunft @derStandard
Ăśber das Konzept #Overshoot und die Dringlichkeit rascher Reduktion unserer Treibhausgas-Emissionen zur Minimierung der Risiken durch die #Erderhitzung
Carl Schleussner vom #IIASAVienna im Gespräch mit Philip Pramer
#WissenSchafftKlimaschutz
https://www.derstandard.at/story/3100000291374/wie-sich-das-15-grad-klimaziel-noch-retten-laesst
My new piece.
'As UK politics turns both right and left, how do we get degrowth onto the agenda?'
The problem is that neither of the two main British left alternatives (#GreenParty and nascent #YourParty) appears to be sufficiently facing up to the fundamental issue of #overshoot (it goes without saying that the right isn’t!).
http://degrowthuk.org/2025/09/22/as-uk-politics-turns-both-right-and-left-how-do-we-get-degrowth-onto-the-agenda/
#UKPol
Direct links as BS has a lower character limit:
Politics, Greens and YP don't address #overshoot: degrowthuk.org/2025/09/22/a...
2) #Games for #degrowth:
steadystatemanchester.net/2025/09/20/g...
As UK politics turns both righ...
@alx @pvonhellermannn
I've just written a piece on the #ProspectsForDegrowth with the leftward turn of the Greens and the proto- Your Party. It's scheduled to appear early Monday, but I will now probably have to revise it.
In summary, disappointing that both developments underplay the extent and urgency of the ecological and climate #overshoot crisis.
#degrowth #UKPol
Overshoot: How the World Surrendered to Climate Breakdown
A must-read book: "Overshoot: How the World Surrendered to Climate Breakdown" by Andreas Malm and Wim Carton. Why are we accepting to exceed climate thresholds? The authors expose the economic interests, technological illusions, and systemic barriers driving global inaction, and call for radical climate action. #climatecrisis #Overshoot #AndreasMalm #WimCarton #ClimateAction "Overshoot: How the World…
https://homohortus31.wordpress.com/2025/09/09/overshoot-world-climate-breakdown/
Wow, - 7 bn people is a lot of decrease. I have seen numbers of 300 m to 2 bn #ClimateRefugees and share the #Overshoot hypothesis to a large degree, but had not come across that number.
Do your models include the (likely) hypothesis that #GlobalWarming is still accelerating?
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110729864746307867
Which of the 9 tipping points did you assume will be reached until 2101?
From "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the #World3 model"
by Arjuna Nebel, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, Tim Schell
First published: 13 November 2023
4.3 Future trends
"So far, the results have mainly been considered in comparison with the empirical data for the recalibration. However, the course of the variables is also interesting in terms of future trends. Here, the model results clearly indicate the imminent end of the exponential growth curve. The excessive consumption of resources by industry and industrial agriculture to feed a growing world population is depleting reserves to the point where the system is no longer sustainable. Pollution lags behind industrial growth and does not peak until the end of the century. Peaks are followed by sharp declines in several characteristics.
"This interconnected collapse, or, as it has been called by Heinberg and Miller (2023), #polycrisis, occurring between 2024 and 2030 is caused by resource depletion, not pollution. The increase in environmental pollution occurs later and with a lower peak (Figure 3).
"However, it is important to note that the connections in the model and the recalibration are only valid for the rising edge, as many of the variables and equations represented in the model are not physical but socio-economic. It is to be expected that the complex socio-economic relationships will be rearranged and reconnected in the event of a collapse. World3 holds the relationships between variables constant. Therefore it is not useful to draw further conclusions from the trajectory after the tipping points. Rather, it is important to recognize that there are large uncertainties about the trajectory from then on, building models for this could be a whole new field of research.
"The fact is that the recalibrated model again shows the possibility of a collapse of our current system. At the same time, the BAU scenario of the 1972 model is shown to be alarmingly consistent with the most recently collected empirical data.
"#Herrington (2021) also concluded in her data comparison that the world is far from a stabilized world scenario where the #overshoot and #collapse mode is brought to a halt. As a society, we have to admit that despite 50 years of knowledge about the dynamics of the collapse of our life support systems, we have failed to initiate a systematic change to prevent this collapse. It is becoming increasingly clear that, despite #technological advances, the change needed to put us on a different trajectory will also require a change in #BeliefSystems, #mindsets, and the way we organize our society (Irwin, 2015; Wamsler & Brink, 2018). [SW model]
"At the point of collapse, the resolution of the model also reaches the limit of further plausible statements. The regional differences in demographic and economic terms are too great to be reduced to simple, highly aggregated variables. To address this problem, a new system dynamics model has been developed on the occasion of #LtG's 50th anniversary which is called Earth for all (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). It introduces a regional resolution and a measure of social inequality and tension. There is also a greater focus on the causes and effects of the #ClimateCrisis. In #Earth4all, the authors no longer focus on scenarios with sharp declines in the main variables. Instead, the scenario Too little too late describes that the effects of the climate crisis will continue to increase and social tensions will rise, causing the well-being index to decline over time. In another scenario, #GiantLeap, it is shown that these negative developments could also be stopped. The authors then propose various policy changes to achieve this (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). "
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jiec.13442
#Capitalism #CorporateColonialism
#Warning #Extinction #ClimateCrisis #EnvironmentalCollapse
#Resources #Ecocide #Technology #SocietalChange #Collapse #SolarPunk #SocietalChange #Degrowth #MindsetChange
[P] If there weren't so many damn lemmings, there wouldn't be so much late-stage crapitalism either. We wouldn't be seeing corporations dumping tonnes upon tonnes of boiling freshwater in the ocean (wasting it) to sate the AI appetite of too many lemmings. The lemmings will kill us all—and they'll do it by keeping crapitalism healthy at the expense of our irreplaceable world.
#psychology #actuallyautistic #neurotypicals #overpopulation #overshoot #childfree
[P] I'm just going to put this here, too.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation
I love that the criticism focuses on the economy, poverty, purely human issues, and the difficulty (oh no!) of population control. Simpletons! If we hit a point of critical mass and no-return vis-a-vis global boiling, water loss, and biodiversity loss? Your economy will be meaningless.
#psychology #actuallyautistic #neurotypicals #overpopulation #overshoot #childfree
[P] i mean, sure lemmings, "DA SMOL BOWTS" amd "DA ASS-EYE-LUMM SEEKAS" are sooo much more important than running out of water thanks to simple-minded homunculi that loves to "fit in" with evil who can't stop overbreeding. Definitely. Yeah, no, I don't agree. I'd ask you to stop being racist and stop overbreeding, but... I mean, all that can be said has been said. Neuro-lemmings will kill us all.
#psychology #actuallyautistic #neurotypicals #overpopulation #overshoot #childfree
[P] See, witless tribal lemmings could cut back their "UNGA BUNGA!" and give the world a breal from their feral, caveman-like inclinations, but nah. I see being childfree and caring about this as nwurodivergent traits—whereas lemmings clearly couldn't give a shit. Too busy making babies and being raciat to see the real threat.
https://www.ecoticias.com/en/world-war-iii-not-be-over-territory/18476/
#psychology #actuallyautistic #neurotypicals #overpopulation #overshoot #childfree
[P] The next global war will be all about water thanks to lemmings with no self-awareness who just can't stop humping like feral imbeciles. And now we're censoring porn, which is going to result in population bursts and even higher levels of rape. Seriously, the censorship of porn will see rape skyrocket too—because lemmings are feral idiots who need their opiates to reduce their destructive tendencies.
#psychology #actuallyautistic #neurotypicals #overpopulation #overshoot #childfree
[P] This is another case of existential terror.
https://www.sciencealert.com/earths-continents-are-drying-out-at-an-unprecedented-rate-study-warns
And it's impossible to get the neurotypicals to care because they're too busy being racist. The next "wonder" the lemmings will grant us is The Water Wars—which will be the extinction of most life on earth. Lemmings could reduce population, but nahhh... I mean, earth's so far beyond its carrying capacity, but nahhh...
#psychology #actuallyautistic #neurotypicals #overpopulation #overshoot #overpopulationonearth #childfree
Video title: Norway has Discovered a Resource that Could Surpass Oil
Sorry to say this, but videos like should not be received with hope and cheering. It's just another excuse to keep on going with "Business-As-Usual". That means another excuse to *NOT* tackle the real problems, like overshoot and over-population. Yet another way to keep capitalism and industrial extractivism firmly in the saddle.
Norway, long known for its vast oil wealth, may be on the brink of a new economic transformation. This video explores how a recent discovery of massive phosphate reserves in southwestern Norway could rival the country’s oil boom of the 20th century. Valued at an estimated $24 trillion, these phosphates are critical not only for global agriculture but also for the green energy transition—powering electric vehicles, solar panels, and advanced electronics.
As the world faces mounting fertilizer shortages and supply chain risks, Norway’s newly uncovered resources could make it one of the most strategically important players in the global economy. The video also examines how this discovery could disrupt the dominance of current phosphate suppliers like Morocco and China, and what it means for Europe’s growing dependence on critical raw materials.
But with opportunity comes challenge. Mining phosphates at scale raises serious environmental and geopolitical concerns, from radioactive waste to carbon emissions. Norway’s response to these issues will shape its global standing for decades to come.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ktIzM4BGgg
#CrashCourse #Mining #Extractivism #Collapse #capitalism #Overshoot #Overpopulation
(Wie) können wir den Erdüberlastungstag umkehren?