I don't know if anybody else in the universe would benefit from a visualisation of the #probability of different #dice results when playing #ForgedInTheDark based #rpgs (e.g. #BladesInTheDark). Maybe it's just me. But here's an illustration I made anyway.
#Probability
@HernanLG
More sort of 'is' than 'practically is'.
:-)
#maths #probability
if the set of numbers is infinite, does that mean that the probability of sampling any specific number from the set of all numbers is practically 0?
`Aitchison's Compositional Data Analysis 40 Years On: A Reappraisal`
Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
https://lotteryeverysecond.lffl.me/
#ycombinator #lottery #powerball #eurojackpot #odds #probability #statistics #live_lottery
I added some tasty bits to my Notes on Probability article, about probability theory not contaminated by topology.
• Convolution and Characteristic Functions
• Probability Metric Spaces
• Directly Fitting Data to Probability Measures
The number of real people who looked at this article before are a set of measure zero, and I expect that to remain true going forward.
🙋 Is the 'hot hand' real? 'Jeopardy!' offers clues
https://phys.org/news/2025-11-hot-real-jeopardy-clues.html
#psychology #behavior #socialscience #hothand #probability #jeopardy #games #statistics #tv #television #culture #decisions
#probability : appearance of reality or truth
- French: Probabilité
- German: die Wahrscheinlichkeit
- Italian: probabilità
- Portuguese: probabilidade
- Spanish: probabilidad
------------
Thank you so much for being a member of our community!
COINCIDENCE - Dreaming of Voids
... or something else?
Do dreams affect reality? (or vice versa?)
#news #psychology #science #errtlings #bookcafe #art_of_review #paranormal_things #superstition #probability
lite.cnn.com/2025/12/22/u...
a blue toy car is in the middl...
@hmallett
When this was on the radio just now I misheard it and thought they said that they'd won 24T Quid.
:-)
#lottery #statistics #probability
#statstab #452 Plotting Distributions in R
Thoughts: A small shiny app for plotting Distributions. Useful.
#rstats #shiny #dataviz #probability #distributions #r #normal #quantiles
I wrote up some notes on probability theory, mainly for my own amusement.
Covers:
Introduction
Metaphysics
Measure Spaces
Probability Spaces
Random Variables
Product Measures
Integration
Change of Variable
Probability Density Functions
Probability Metrics
> My goal is to get a great foundation in ML theory
That's a great goal! If you really want a great foundation in Machine Learning, then learn Probability Theory & Statistics. Machine Learning is essentially an application, often approximate, of the basic rules of Probability Theory.
Learning these grounds has another great advantage: it gives you rock-solid knowledge that you'll be able to use, unchanged, throughout your career, no matter which machine-learning algorithms go into or out of fashion. You'll be able to understand how new ones work and how they can be improved even more.
A problem with many courses and material in Probability & Statistics is that unfortunately they don't make the connection with Machine Learning. Murphy's book is a exception, but it can be technically heavy.
There's a free course that leads you, step by step, from the basics of probability to building a machine-learning algorithm and even a "small language model", so that you can see the connection throughout. It's in R, but it should be easy to port it to Python. Feel free to take a look: <https://pglpm.github.io/ADA511/>
about to turn my mind into pudding / 420mg Δ9 / better living though chemistry
#absurdism #existentialism #causality #emergence #complexsystems #consciousness #philosophyoflife #stochastic #cosmiccoincidence #chaosandorder #mindbending #latecapitalism #betterlivingthroughchemistry #stonerphilosophy #thoughtspiral #probability #meaningmaking
New blog post: My favourite Python library for calculating dice probabilities
Dice Stats is my go-to library for calculating dice probabilities, and I this is how I've used it in a real example.
https://sergiswriting.com/best-python-library-for-dice-probabilities/
A mind-opening read for anyone interested in how betting really works.
This article breaks down concepts most bettors never consider — and it might change the way you think about “safe” bets.
Highly recommended 👇
🔗 https://medium.com/@adrien.ditta/why-safe-bets-can-make-you-poor-cd21f89d84b4
Feel free to follow for more.
The independent quant engine v2.1 is now live on PlayAiOdds.com, offering a clearer, math-first interpretation of football probabilities.
#SportsBetting #Analytics #ValueBetting #Probability #DataScience #FootballAnalytics #EV
🏆 Congratulations to the 2026 AMS–EMS Mikhail Gordin Prize laureates Simion Filip (University of Chicago) and Vadim Gorin (University of California, Berkeley)!
Science for Everyone – Physics and Geometry of Disorder – Percolation Theory
We now come to another gem in the Science For Everyone series, Physics and Geometry of Disorder – Percolation Theory by A. L. Efros.
This book is about percolation theory and its various applications, which occur mostly in physics and chemistry. The book is self-sufficient in that it contains chapters on elementary probability theory and Monte Carlo simulation. Most attention is paid to the relationship between the geometrical and physical properties of systems in the vicinity of their percolation thresholds. The theory is applied to examples of impurity semiconductors and doped ferromagnetics, which demonstrate its universality. Although written for students at high schools, the book is very good reading for college students and will satisfy the curiosity of a physicist for whom this will be a first encounter with percolation theory.
The book was translated from the Russian by V. I. Kisin and was first published by Mir in 1986.
The Internet Archive Link and here
Follow us on The Internet Archive: https://archive.org/details/@mirtitles
Write to us: mirtitles@gmail.com
Updated: 15 January 2019
Contents
Part I. Site Percolation Problem 14
Chapter 1. Percolation Threshold 14
Two Pundits Shred a Wire Mesh (14).
What Is a Random Variable? (17).
Mean Value and Variance (18).
Why a Large Wire Mesh? (23).
Exercises (27).
Chapter 2. Basic Rules for Calculating Probabilities Continuous Random Variables 28
Events and Their probabilities (28).
Addition of Probabilities (30).
Multiplication of Probabilities (33).
Exercises (37).
Percolation Threshold in a 2 x 2 Network (37).
Exercise (40).
Continuous Random Variables (40).
Exercises (44).
Percolation Threshold as a Continuous Random Variable (44).
Exercise (48).
Chapter 3. Infinite Cluster 48
Permanent Magnet (48).
Doped Ferromagnetics (53).
Formation of an Infinite Cluster (56).
Exercise (59).
Site Percolation Problem Revisited (59).
Clusters at a Low Concentration of Magnetic Atoms(63).
Exercises (67).
Chapter 4 Solution of the Site Percolation Problem by Monte Carlo Computer Techniques 68
Why Monte Carlo? (68).
What Is the Monte Carlo Method? (70).
How to Think Up a Random Number (74).
The Mid—Square Method (76).
Exercises (78).
Linear Congruent Method (78).
Exercises (79).
Determination of Percolation Threshold. by Monte Carlo Simulation on a Computer. Distribution of Blocked and Non-blocked Sites (81).
Exercise (84).
Search for Percolation Path (85).
Determination of the Threshold (86).
Exercise (89).
Part II. Various Problems of Percolation Theory and Their Applications
Chapter 5. Problems on Two-Dimensional Lattices 90
We Are Planting an Orchard (the Bond Problem) (90).
Exercise (95).
Inequality relating x_b to x_s (95).
Exercise (98).
Covering and Containing; Lattices (98).
“White” Percolation and “Black” Percolation (105).
Dual Lattices (110).
Exercise (115).
Results for Plane Lattices (116).
Exercise (117).
Directed Percolation (117).
Chapter 6. Three—Dimensional Lattices and Approximate Evaluation of Percolation Thresholds 120
Three-Dimensional Lattices (121).
Percolation Thresholds for 3D Lattices (126).
Factors Determining Percolation Threshold in the Bond Problem (127).
How to Evaluate Percolation Threshold in the Site Problem (129).
Exercise (134).
Chapter 7. Ferromagnetics with Long-Range Interaction. The Sphere Problem 135
Ferromagnetics with Long-Range Interaction (136).
Exercise (140).
The Sphere (Circle) Problem (140).
The Circle (Sphere) Problem Is the Limiting Case Of the Site Problem (144).
Chapter 8. Electric Conduction of Impurity Semiconductors. The Sphere Problem 147
Intrinsic Semiconductors (147).
Impurity Semiconductors (150).
Transition to Metallic Electric Conduction at Increased Impurity Concentrations (158).
The Mott Transition and Sphere Problem (161).
Exercise (166).
Chapter 9. Various Generalizations of the Sphere Problem 166
Inclusive Figures of Arbitrary Shape (166).
The Ellipsoid Problem (169).
Other Surfaces (173).
Another Experiment at the House Kitchen. The Hard-Sphere Problem (174).
Chapter 10. Percolation Level 179
“The Flood” (179).
How to Construct a Random Function (182).
Analogy to the Site Problem (185).
Percolation Levels in Plane and Three Dimensional Problems (186).
Impurity Compensation in Semiconductors (189).
Motion of a Particle with Nonzero Potential Energy (190).
Motion of an Electron in the Field of Impurities (192).
Part III. Critical Behavior of Various Quantities Near Percolation Threshold. Infinite Cluster Geometry 195
Chapter 11 The Bethe Lattice
Rumors (196).
Solution of the Site Problem on the Bethe Lattice (200).
Discussion (204).
Exercise (206).
Chapter 12. Structure of Infinite Clusters 206
The Shklovskii—de Gennes Model (206).
Role of the System’s Size (210).
Electric Conduction Near Percolation Threshold (215).
Exercise. (219).
Function P (X) Near Percolation Threshold. Role Played by Dead—Ends (219).
Universality of Critical Exponents (222).
Chapter 13. Hopping Electric Conduction 226
Mechanism of Hopping Conduction (227).
Resistor Network (229).
Properties of Resistor NetworK (231).
The Sphere` Problem Revisited (232).
Calculation of Resistivity (233). Discussion of the Result (235).
Chapter 14. Final Remarks 237
Some Applications (237).
What Is Percolation Theory, After All? (240)
Answers and Solutions 242
Chapter 1 (242). Chapter 2 (244). Chapter 3 (246).
Chapter 4 (249). Chapter 5 (250). Chapter 6 (256).
Chapter 7 (257). Chapter 8 (257). Chapter 11 (257).
Chapter 12 (258).
#chemistry #disorder #efros #mathematics #mirPublishers #monteCarloMethod #percolationTheory #physics #popularScience #probability #scienceForEveryone
Long multi-slips aren’t “safe” — they’re donations.
A 10-match ticket with odds like 1.50–2.00 has only 1.61% real probability.
That means ~62 attempts to hit a payout of 62×.
If you want the full math, formulas, and explanation, read the full article:
👉 https://medium.com/@adrien.ditta/the-betting-agency-is-not-a-church-for-you-to-make-donations-7817b3ec8b6a
Don’t donate. Calculate.
#SportsBetting #Probability #DataDriven #Analytics #Football #BettingEducation #PlayAiOdds #BetResponsibly
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