2 Apollo Global Management chief economist #TorstenSlok: Looking at #foreign participation in #30-year #Treasury #auctions shows a downward trend in recent months.

1 Apollo Global Management chief economist #TorstenSlok: Indirect bidding in #Treasury #auctions refers to bids submitted on behalf of #ForeignInstitutions. These bidders don’t participate directly, but instead have their bids placed by intermediaries—hence “indirect." #USTreasuries #bonds 🧵

#TorstenSlok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management: After #LiberationDay, the #dollar has disconnected from #interestrate differentials. #USD #forex #tariffs #currencies #markets

3 #TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: “The bottom line is that #inflation will increase significantly for the #product categories where #China is the main producer of that good, likely including #fireworks”

2 #TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: Similarly, there are many different categories of #products that are #imported into the #US where #demand is #inelastic, and #China is the only provider of that product. 🧵 #tariffs #tradewar #trade

1 #TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management: “Will There Be #Fireworks on the #4thofJuly? Estimates show that more than 90% of fireworks used in the #UnitedStates are imported, and 95% of fireworks imported into the #US come from #China 🧵 #tariffs #tradewar #trade

Data from the #Fed shows that a record-high share of #households are only making the minimum payment on their #creditcards - #TorstenSlok, chief economist, Apollo GlobalManagement.

Chart from #TorstenSlok, chief #economist at Apollo Global Management showing a sharp in #US #corporate #capex #spending plans.

4 “ … growing #supplychain challenges with potential #shortages in #US #stores within a few weeks, higher US #inflation & lower #tourism to the US. We reiterate our view that if current policies do not change, then the probability of a US #recession in 2025 is 90%” - #TorstenSlok, chief economist …🧵