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My Predictions and Picks for GPHG 2025

The Grand Prix d’Horlogerie de Genève (GPHG) winners will be announced tomorrow, so I thought I would get a jump on things by picking the winners today. Now I don’t want to guess I’ll be 100% correct in my predictions, but it’s always fun to try. And I’ll re-visit this post after the ceremony to show where I was right and where I missed the mark!

Ladies’ and Jewellery Watches

I don’t know nearly as much about ladies and jewellery watches as some, but I’ve been watching the GPHG for a number of years and have spotted a few trends in the vote: The jury tends to pick watches that catch the eye with innovative designs and spectacular finishing, while also focusing on a few popular brands. With that in mind, here are my predictions for the winners in these categories.

Ladies’ Watch

The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Mini Frosted Gold Quartz will win. Yeah it’s got a quartz movement, but my wife at least prefers that. The Royal Oak is a 7-times winner at the GPHG but incredibly no smaller models have taken the prize. AP’s frosted gold is just luscious, making this tiny Royal Oak one of my favorites from the brand.

If I was on the jury I would choose the Tiffany & Co. Bird on a Rock Legacy Tanzanite for its incredible combination of craftsmanship and style. But Tiffany has never won an award at the GPHG, and it’s always hard to beat AP!

Ladies’ Complication Watch

I’m betting that the Franck Muller Round Triple Mystery takes the award. It has a lot going for it, with the skeletonized discs of diamonds and emeralds, but Franck Muller hasn’t won a GPHG award in two decades.

My vote would go to the Audemars Piguet Code 11.59 Selfwinding Flying Tourbillon, but despite two recent wins I don’t think the market has warmed to the Code 11.59 design like I have.

Jewellery Watch

I can’t see anything other than the Bulgari Serpenti Aeterna taking this prize. The Serpenti has incredible buzz, and this watch is gorgeous. It would get my vote, too, even though my wife prefers the Chopard and I’m thrilled to see a sautoir in the running.

Artistic Crafts Watch

I’m really torn between the Piaget Altiplano Skeleton, Tiffany & Co. Bird on a Flying Tourbillon, and Voutilainen 28GML SOUYOU, but I’m going to give the nod to the Piaget. They’re one of the winningest brands in the history of the GPHG and this particular example is just lovely: A perfect balance of art and craft and a really compelling watch!

Time, Men’s, Iconic, and Sports

I know a lot more about men’s watches, and the next four categories are a lot tougher. There are many incredible entries, and I’m not entirely sure which one will win out! But I’ll take a stab at it, again focusing on what I think the jury and the market will prefer.

Time Only Watch

Ming won the Sports prize last year, and they’re back with the incredible Project 21. This would be my pick of this crop too, thanks in large part to the famous Frédéric Piguet Cal. FP21 beating inside. This movement was the thinnest ever made when it was introduced in 1925 and held that record for 21 years. It was used by Blancpain and Patek Philippe, and now Ming has adopted it!

Men’s Watch

This is a very tough category, but I think it comes down to the Grand Seiko Spring Drive U.F.A. and Zenith G.F.J. Calibre 135. Ultimately I think the Zenith will get the nod, thanks to its more-distinctive looks and legendary movement, now in serial production.

Grand Seiko has been more successful lately. My vote would be with the Grand Seiko Spring Drive U.F.A.!

Iconic Watch

This is my category, since I focus on watchmaking history. The Breguet Classique Souscription 2025 is really excellent and hyped, but I think the award will ultimately go to the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar. The incredible new Cal. 7138, with all adjustments through the crown, deserves a win on its own, and it comes in a flawless package! But this might end up taking the top prize, leaving Breguet to swipe a win.

My vote would definitely go to the excellent and important Andersen Genève Communication 45, but the jury has not been kind to this brand: They have never won, despite 10 nominations!

Sports Watch

Audemars Piguet entered an Offshore in this category, so I think Grand Seiko will sneak in a win here with the Tokyo Lion Tentagraph. It’s weird and ugly to my eyes, but the movement is so good. And Grand Seiko has so much buzz from collectors for this watch.

My vote would go to the Ressence GMT Sport-Chic Watch Type 7, but I really don’t think it stands a chance in this category. Although they’re cool, Ressence has very little hype and has suffered reputational damage from leaking oil-filled cases and electro-mechanical ideas that never took off.

Complicated Watches

Now we get to some more elite categories. Prices for the complicated watches are stratospheric, and most categories are packed with worthy entrants. But the jury has to pick one, and so do I!

Chronograph

I was lucky enough to see an H. Moser & Cie Streamliner Alpine Drivers Edition in the flesh, and it’s every bit as good as I thought it would be. Although the other contenders in the Chronograph category are worth a look, only the Louis Moinet revival stands a chance. I would have voted for the Moser too, and would buy one if I had the spare cash!

Men’s Complication Watch

Chalk up another win for Audemars Piguet! I will be shocked if the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar “150th Anniversary” Openworked doesn’t take the award. It marks the swan song of the old Cal. 5135 and offers so much to love (apart from the nearly-$200k price tag).

My vote would go to the Chopard L.U.C Lunar One, which finally gives the excellent L.U.C Calibre 96.13-L a proper home. And it’s a bargain at half the price!

Tourbillon

I see the Bulgari Octo Finissimo Ultra Tourbillon running away with a win. This line has won 5 GPHG awards, including a 2017 win in this same category (then called the Tourbillon and Escapement Watch Prize) for the direct ancestor of this watch. But this one is even better. I want Urban Jürgensen to win something, but I just can’t see their UJ-1 beating the Bulgari.

Mechanical Exception

How do you beat a $3 million watch? Louis Vuitton is about to find out, as the modestly-priced (in comparison) $500k Greubel Forsey Nano Foudroyante takes this prize. Now a real watch rather than an experiment, the nanomechanical marvel is a jaw-dropping tour-de-force (if you’ll forgive the pun) with a foudroyante hand to show just how slick it is.

I would have voted for the $95k Armin Strom Dual Time GMT Resonance Manufacture Edition. It’s lovely, mechanically exceptional, and a great value, but it honestly has no chance of winning in this crowd.

Price-Based Categories

The next two categories are based on price bands. I love that there’s space for lower-priced entries to win, and that these categories attract so many interesting newcomers and alternative brands. But this makes it even harder to break through – it takes a very special watch to win the “Petite Aiguille”, let alone the Challenge prize!

Challenge Watch

The “Challenge Watch Prize” goes to a watch that retails under 3,000 Swiss Francs, the most-affordable price brand. This limits the “Swiss” content, not to mention the finishing and movement selections, so it’s always a pleasure to see some interesting entrants.

Christopher Ward has been doing some phenomenal work lately, and their collaboration with Mr. Jones ought to take the prize. The C1 Celestial Moonphase x Mr Jones uses a Sellita SW220-1 with additional components to create a whimsical animated dial showing the phase of the moon, with the time marked by two birds. Yet somehow the result is charming rather than gimicky.

China is deeply involved in watchmaking, but the contributions of the factories there are rarely celebrated. It’s time to set that right. The Atelier Wen Millésime 2024 睦 (MÙ) is a remarkable watch with real craftsmanship, including a hand-turned guilloche dial, lovely design, and a thin automatic Liaoning Peacock movement. I would have wanted to examine it in person, but suspect it would have earned my vote.

“Petite Aiguille” Watch

The “Petite Aiguille” prize goes to a watch in the middle price band, between 3,000 and 10,000 francs. This ought to be the richest territory for watches with mass appeal, but the entrants this year are uniformly odd.

In 2022, M.A.D. Editions won the Challenge prize for their highly sought-after M.A.D.1, and they are the clear favorites to win the next prize with the M.A.D.2 Green. It’s priced just over the limit at 3,135 francs, but is frankly a much more appealing design. The turntable-inspired aesthetic might be lost on you, but the overall look is remarkably balanced and interesting.

I love the Christopher Ward C12, but I’m a Moser guy so my vote would have gone to the H. Moser & Cie Streamliner Alpine Mechanics Edition. But I do wonder if it should even be listed here, since it’s not generally available for purchase, and smartwatches are supposed to be limited to the Challenge category. Still, I would drop 4,500 francs on this beauty tomorrow if only the Meylan family would cash my check!

The Big Prize (and the Others)

The winner of the Aiguille d’Or Grand Prix is drawn from the entrants in the other categories, are the discretionary prizes. This makes it much harder to predict which watch will win, and confounds the above predictions since my pick could be bumped for a bigger prize. Still, let’s take a look and consider who might win.

Aiguille d’Or Grand Prix

It is incredibly difficult to pick the best watch among the 90 nominated entries, but we can limit things a bit. It is unlikely that a clock, Challenge, or “Petite Aiguille” would win, so we can reduce the field to 75. And the overall winner is usually a complicated model for men rather than a ladies’ or jewellery watch. The Aiguille d’Or Grand Prix usually goes to a model that is important, complicated, and pioneering, as it should.

My prediction, and my choice, is simple: No watch on this list is more important, in-demand, and iconic than the new Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar. If it takes the top prize, I suspect that Breguet will take home the Iconic Watch prize with their Breguet Classique Souscription 2025.

What else could win? Theoretically any of my winners could take the prize, but the most likely is the Bulgari Octo Finissimo Ultra Tourbillon. Its cousin, the Octo Finissimo Perpetual Calendar, took home the top award in 2021, and this offering is even better. But I’m not sure who wins the Tourbillon award in that case: Czapek or Urban Jürgensen, I suppose.

Discretionary Prizes

Although they don’t have to give any award in the discretionary categories (thus the name), the jury only skipped one prize in the last few years. So it is likely that these will also shake up the ceremony!

Audacity Prize

The Audacity Prize recognizes “a non-conformist, offbeat approach to watchmaking.” Last year it was won by the Berneron Mirage, which ought to have taken the Horological Revelation prize if I had been on the jury.

A look at past winners shows that the jury truly values unusual design, and we have that in spades this year. While I’d love to see the prize go to Behrens, Otsuka Lotec, or Amida, these lower-priced oddballs are unlikely to be rewarded. The same is true of the offbeat Artistic Crafts entries from Louis Vuitton and Hermès. Instead, my pick for Audacity is the Bvlgari x MB&F Serpenti: No other watch combines haute horology, iconic design, and sheer funkiness like this wild little arm-biter. Audacity barely does it justice!

Horological Revelation Prize

Is there a young brand (less than 10 years old) that deserves recognition among this crowded roster? This prize was skipped last year, and is the most-skipped discretionary award of all. It previously went to Simon Brette, Sylvain Pinaud, Furlan Mari, Petermann Bédat, Ming, Laurent Ferrier, and Ressence.

This list might include Raúl Pagès, Otsuka Lotec, Fam Al Hut, Tasaki, Garrick, Hazemann & Monnin, and Luca Soprana. Of these, only Pagès has yet contributed enough to be considered. Companies like Amida and Czapek position themselves as re-launches of historic brands, which is too bad since Czapek fits the bill perfectly on their 10th anniversary. Ultimately, I think this award will again be skipped for 2025.

Eco-Innovation Prize

The Innovation Prize became the Eco-Innovation Prize last year, recognizing “significant developments linked to sustainability: traceability, ethics, materials, etc.” Chopard took home the first trophy for their L.U.C Qualité Fleurier, but I’m not sure who might get it this time around: None of the entries seem particularly eco-friendly. Perhaps the jury skips this one in just its second year!

Chronometry Prize

The Chronometry Prize recognizes a watch that is officially certified and stands out for its remarkable precision timekeeping. Grand Seiko won it in 2022 for their constant-force tourbillon, then Ferdinand Berthoud in 2023, followed by the perfectly-fit Bernhard Lederer 3 Times Certified Observatory Chronometer.

Eligible models include the Chopard L.U.C Quattro Mark IV and the Armin Strom Dual Time GMT Resonance. Sadly, it appears that the Urban Jürgensen watches are not chronometer certified, exempting them from eligibility. And it’s tragic that Seiko’s Spring Drive Caliber 9RB2 (with a rate of 20 seconds per year) isn’t certified either. If I was on the jury I would give the award to the audacious Armin Strom, but I wonder if they will pick Chopard (one of their historic favorites) over that never-awarded brand.

The Grail Watch Perspective

By the time you read this, it is likely that the 2025 Grand Prix d’Horlogerie de Genève will be finished and all of my picks and predictions will be wasted. But this won’t be the last time I write about the GPHG this year: I’ll publish a response to the awards soon, and I have more in the works: A deeper look at the history of the awards and an analysis of the most-frequent winners and losers.

#arminStrom #atelierWen #audemarsPiguet #bulgari #chopard #christopherWard #franckMuller #gphg #grandPrixDhorlogerieDeGeneve #grandSeiko #greubelForsey #hMoserCie #ming #piaget

#arminStrom

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