P.S. Important and much appreciated input from Ed Wiebe M.Sc. at UVic Earth & Ocean Science

https://mstdn.ca/@edwiebe/115265785432541292

#PortAlberni #BCWx #Weather #BCStorm #AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes #Flooding

8/end The question is.. what will those totals look like?

Could we see a 150mm-200mm in-a-day rainfall event? 1000mm over a few days? More?

Or perhaps even if it happened just right in January or February, could we see a massive snowfall event reminiscent of last century?

We won't know until it happens, but we can see the signs that our time is coming.

#PortAlberni #BCWx #Weather #BCStorm #AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes #Flooding

7/n We have seen a number of times in the past 10 years, most dramatically in 2021, where small and large Atmospheric River events have seemed to "go around" Port Alberni... often impacting the Lake Cowichan area most.

Our strongest events have always been when winds lined up best with the opening of the Alberni Inlet, roughly South to Southeast. So we will have our moment.

#PortAlberni #BCWx #Weather #BCStorm #AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes #Flooding

6/n What I don't believe we have yet experienced in Port Alberni — as a matter of luck — is the full force of a extra-water-vapor-laden Atmospheric River event.

Whereas before #PortAlberni could rely on our geography to 'squeeze' moisture out of almost any frontal system as it rammed into the inland Vancouver Island mountain ridges, today with generally warmer/drier air, that's not enough.

#BCWx #Weather #BCStorm #AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes #Flooding

5/n We have also noticed far fewer foggy days in Port Alberni in Spring and Fall and this year there were almost none in Summer, when in previous decades we could expect to see fog on more than few days.

These are all indications (anecdotal) that would go along with the notion that as the temperature is rising, the air is drying, making precipitation in general much less frequent.

#BCWx #Weather #BCStorm #AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes #Flooding

4/n Thinking about it... Port Alberni in the summer is a very dry place. As the sun rises higher in the sky in Spring, there is more opportunity to dry out the air and land... combine that with rising average temperatures, especially on the low end (at night/early morning) and that means the air is drier making it less likely to rain when we would normally receive rain from even small frontal systems.

#BCWx #Weather #BCStorm #AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes #Flooding

3/n “Because onset of rainfall depends on relative humidity, rain events on land become less frequent. But when rain events are triggered by weather systems, they become larger, more intense and more likely to cause flooding, as is also observed to be happening”

We have most definitely seen this change in behaviour on Vancouver Island!

#BCWx #Weather #BCStorm #AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes #Flooding

2/n part1 "Because land temperatures are rising faster than ocean temperatures [figure attached] as air moves from the ocean to the land as part of the hydrological cycle (ocean evaporation, wind moisture transport to land, rain on land, runoff and flow of water in rivers back to the ocean), the relative humidity of air drops. This is now clearly observed on land even as the total moisture has increased.”

#BCWx #Weather #BCStorm #AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes #Flooding

1/n Really interesting Post on The Climate Brink from Dr. Kevin Trenberth.

TIL: "Weather systems reach out and gather in moisture typically from over a distance about four times (3 to 5) the diameter of the precipitating area.”

Handy guide!

But there is a paragraph in particular that intrigues me and I want to parse it out in the next couple replies/toots in this thread.

#BCWx #Weather #BCStorm #AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes #Flooding

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-undeniable-science-of-extreme?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1593097&post_id=174213380&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=3995q&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

Spanish schools to teach pupils how to cope with climate crisis disasters
"Spanish children will be taught how to respond to floods, wildfires, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in a drive to help prepare them for the growing impact of the climate emergency." >>
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/11/spanish-schools-to-give-lessons-in-coping-with-natural-disassters

Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors
Study "establish that the influence of climate change on heatwaves has increased, and that all carbon majors, even the smaller ones, contributed substantially to the occurrence of heatwaves. Our results contribute to filling the evidentiary gap to establish accountability of historical climate extremes."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09450-9
#FossilFuels #ClimateEmergency #climate #AttributionSci #accountability #heatwaves #floods #Bushfires #ClimateExtremes #disasters #IntergenerationalJustice #children

As 2025 sets global heat records, Indigenous wisdom remains sidelined. New scholarship shows that Sámi and Aboriginal knowledge, rooted in generations of lived experience, still struggles to shape climate policy and land use decisions worldwide.

https://wildhunt.org/2025/09/listening-to-the-land-indigenous-wisdom-still-struggles-for-recognition.html

#climateextremes #climatechange #indigenouswisdom #climatecrisis #environmentalandresourcegovernance #research #science #pagan

💡 New paper!
Climate extremes are impacting carbon dynamics in forests across Europe. Drought–heat compound events can diminish resilience and prolong recovery times, with temperate and boreal forests lacking heat or drought adaptations leading to physiological damage that heightens sensitivity to future weather fluctuations.

👉 Find out more: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ade8ff/meta#Acknowledgments

#ClimateChange #ClimateExtremes

As US climate data-gathering is gutted, Australian forecasting in the dark

"This year, Australia has experienced record-breaking floods, tropical cyclones, heatwaves on land and in the ocean, drought, coral bleaching, coastal erosion and devastating algal blooms. Over the past five years, insured losses from extreme events have risen to A$4.5 billion annually – more than double the 30-year average."

"America’s sweeping cuts to science will have large ripple effects. Losing these capabilities and expertise will be a significant setback for researchers in the US, Australia and worldwide. The cuts come at a time when extreme weather and damage from climate change is intensifying. Early warnings save lives."
>>
https://theconversation.com/as-us-climate-data-gathering-is-gutted-australian-forecasting-is-now-at-real-risk-261747

"ESA's Climate Change Initiative is a major research and development effort that generates global, decades-long satellite data records to track and understand key aspects of the Earth climate system, and known as Essential Climate Variables."
>>
https://climate.esa.int/en/about-us-new/climate-change-initiative/
#NOAA #climate #disasters #ESA #Australia #ClimateExtremes #data #dependency

🌍 Call for Abstracts – Deadline Extended to 31 July 2025!
📢 The workshop on Climate Predictability & Integrated Attribution — co-organized by #MPIM_scientists Lara Wallberg & Wolfgang Müller — invites your contributions!

🔍 Topics: climate variability, predictability, #extremes, #AI/#ML methods & more.
💡 Organized by ASPECT, EXPECT, I4C & WCRP.

📄 Submit now: https://www.upcliv-workshop.eu
#ClimateScience #ClimatePrediction #ClimateExtremes #ScienceCollaboration

Paris braces for 50-degree summers with urban cooling plan.

"The city of Paris is preparing for heatwaves with temperatures of up to 50 degrees Celsius in the coming years and plans to redesign buildings and public spaces to better protect the population."
>>
https://www.yahoo.com/news/paris-braces-50-degree-summers-165931782.html

Image:
Space-hungry cars in Bellingen yearning for more parking. Before this space became entombed in asphalt it had many mature trees on it.

#Fossilfuels #impacts #ClimateExtremes #ExtremeHeat #heatwaves #climate #ExitFossil #energy #PublicInfrastructure #asphalt #roads #PublicHealth #cars #Bellingen

Climate Extremes as the Norm

"In the absence of effective global climate mitigation actions, we may thus witness a qualitative regime shift from a world dominated by individual climate-related hazards and impacts to one where compound occurrences become the norm."
>>
Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., & Thiery, W. (2025). Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change. Earth's Future, 13, e2025EF006325. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006325
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EF006325
#Fossilfuels #impacts #CompoundHazards #ClimateExtremes #RegimeShift #bushfires #ExtremeHeat #floods #droughts #CropFailures #climate #hypernormalisation

Last week, MW3 project participants met at LCRS in Marburg. They visited the new #sapflow #sensorboxes in the Marburg Open Forest & discussed first results of the monitoring system analyzing #treegrowth responses to #climateextremes. More info: https://mw3-project.com/ #MOF

#FYI #ScienceShorts

"The water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% per °C of warming"

https://youtube.com/shorts/6oEbGv3G034

#WaterVapor #ClimateHeating #ClimateExtremes #climate #ClimateScience #ClimateEmergency #ClimateCrisis #ClimateBreakdown #climatecatastrophe #ExtremeWeather #fossilfuels #Co2 #Co2Emissions #methane #GreenhouseGases #KeepinInTheGround

This is an interesting paper on #ClimateExtremes

"emergence of hotspots where the hottest temperatures are warming significantly faster than more moderate temperatures. In these regions, trends are largely underestimated in climate model simulations. Globally aggregated, we find that models struggle with both ends of the trend distribution, with positive trends being underestimated most, while moderate trends are well reproduced."

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2411258121

@Sine @PIK_climate @rahmstorf Ich wollte eine Frage zur Gestaltung des Film stellen: Es ging mir darum, dass dem Zuschauer von #ClimateExtremes in den ersten Minuten nicht richtig klar wird, was ihn noch erwartet. Deswegen steigen vielen dann aus.
Wie ging es Ihnen beim Zuschauen?