Lmst

How to cheat at settlers by loading the dice (2017)

https://izbicki.me/blog/how-to-cheat-at-settlers-of-catan-by-loading-the-dice-and-prove-it-with-p-values.html

#HackerNews #cheat #settlers #settlersofcatan #loadingdice #gamingstrategy #pvalues

@lakens Your discussion of #pvalues is really a bit odd. "Just calculate a number that has no real interpretation, and then interpret it cautiously."* That's bogus.

Importantly, you missed the opportunity to making the point that, relatively, your p-values do have an interpretation: If you order your effects by p-value from low to high, the top of this list contains better candidates for a future study than the bottom.

*these are my words paraphrasing/interpreting Daniel Lakens

#statstab #337 Confidence intervals and tests are two sides of the same research question

Thoughts: Comment describing the connection between NHST p-values/test and Confidence Intervals (CI).

#NHST #ConfidenceIntervals #pvalues #frequentist #estimation

https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00034

#statstab #309 The statistical significance filter leads to overoptimistic expectations of replicability

Thoughts: Not sure how many researchers interpret p-values are indexes of replicability, but they shouldn't.

#replication #pvalues #TypeMerror #meta

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jml.2018.07.004

#statstab #300 (!!!) 🥳🎉
Beyond the forest plot: The drapery plot

Thoughts: I can't believe they didn't call these 'tepee plots'.
I think they are cluttered, but can be useful.

#metaanalysis #pvalues #consonancecurve #pvaluefunction #dataviz #prediction #plots #figures #R

https://doi.org/10.1002/jrsm.1410

#statstab #298 Replication: Do not trust your p-value, be it small or large

Thoughts: Even under exact replications, a p-values is not very good at predicting the p-value in a future study. p=.05 ~ 50% rep.

#pvalues #replication #estimation #metascience

https://physoc.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1113/JP281614

#statstab #295 The Fallacy of the Null-Hypothesis Significance Test

Thoughts: "the [..] aim of a scientific experiment is not to precipitate decisions, but to make an appropriate adjustment in the degree to which one accepts, or believes, the hypothesis"

#NHST #Bayes #ConfidenceIntervals #pvalues #significance #testing #hypotheses #likelihood #critique #fallacy

http://stats.org.uk/statistical-inference/Rozeboom1960.pdf

#statstab #289 The meaning of significance in data testing

Thoughts: Fisherian significance testing =/= Neyman-Pearson statistical hypothesis testing. Many debates on p-values and frequentist stats are due to this confusion.

#pvalues #NHST #frequentist

https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01293

#statstab #287 Dance of the p Values

Thoughts: One of my go-to demonstrations for the variability of p-values, and why they say so little about a study.

#pvalues #NHST #education #estimation #frequentist #replication #error #visualization #teaching

https://youtu.be/5OL1RqHrZQ8

#statstab #272 Different meanings of p-values

Thoughts: A riveting (& confusing) discussion on the definitions & properties of p-values. W/ guest appearance from some big names in stats, from all camps.

#NHST #pvalues #divergence #bayes #compatibility

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/04/14/4-different-meanings-of-p-value-and-how-my-thinking-has-changed/

#statstab #255 The p-value and model specification in statistics

Thoughts: Little thought is given to the appropriateness of the test and its assumptions.

#pvalues #nhst #nullhypothesis #testing #ttest #fisher

https://gpsych.bmj.com/content/32/3/e100081

"In real life, we weigh the anticipated consequences of the decisions that we are about to make. That approach is much more rational than limiting the percentage of making the error of one kind in an artificial (null hypothesis) setting or using a measure of evidence for each model as the weight."
Longford (2005) http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/stuff_for_blog/longford.pdf

#modeling #nullHypothesis #probability #probabilities #pValues #statistics #stats #statisticalLiteracy #bias #inference #modelling #regression #linearRegression

#statstab #234 Not all alphas can be justified

Thoughts: When using discrete distributions, with few outcomes, your alpha cannot always take the values you want. Same with the distribution of p-values under the null.

#pvalues #nhst #errorcontrol #alpha

https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/erwvk

Surveys, coincidences, statistical significance 🧵

"What Educated Citizens Should Know About Statistics and Probability"
By Jessica Utts, in 2003: https://ics.uci.edu/~jutts/AmerStat2003.pdf via @hrefna

@edutooters

#nullHypothesis #probability #probabilities #pValues #statistics #stats #education #higherEd #statisticalLiteracy #bias #media #causalInference

#statstab #217 The distribution of p-values obtained in replications depends only on the original p-value. How can it be true?

Thoughts: A great discussion where the author @thenewstats chimes in to explain the issue.

#replication #pvalues #confidenceinvervals #bayes

Jacob Cohen: we, as teachers, consultants, authors, and otherwise perpetrators of quantitative methods, are responsible for the ritualization of null hypothesis significance testing,,, to the point of meaninglessness and beyond.

Wendy's teenager: Um, sir...

#whycharactergotsirthisiswendys
#hashtaggames

#psychology #statistics #pvalues #rants