"Modeling Reemergence of Vaccine-Eliminated Infectious Diseases Under Declining Vaccination in the US"
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2833361
"At current state-level vaccination rates, measles may become endemic again; increasing vaccine coverage would prevent this. Under a 50% decline in childhood vaccination in the US, the simulation model predicted 51.2 million #measles cases over a 25-year period, 9.9 million #rubella cases, 4.3 million #poliomyelitis cases, 197 #diphtheria cases, 10.3 million hospitalizations, and 159,200 deaths."
Note that the graphic is labeled "25% decline in childhood vaccination" not 50%. I think this is because the authors wanted an "average" of their models for the graphic. Bottom line: It's bad at 25% and can only get worse! Also note that the #measles numbers are much larger because it is so much more contagious!
People... this would be an *appalling* outcome of the current anti-vax, anti-science, anti-child confusion and policies of the current #Trump administration!