@drmakimber @bsky.brid.gy Thank you Martin I appreciate the tips.

I’ll be honest though, this exemplifies Mastodon for me. Loads of great ideas but you either need to work in IT or have a friendly helpful IT expert to hand.

@drmakimber There or here? Is it really as simple as that?

Find me on Bluesky.

Guest Substack post debunking the latest poor academic paper that is fueling anti-vax conspiracy theories by actuary Stuart McDonald

https://open.substack.com/pub/christinapagel/p/guest-post-a-terrible-academic-paper?r=8zv6v&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Excellent summary of THAT paper from @ActuaryByDay and @chrischirp why paper is misleading nonsense & should be retracted from BMJ. The newspapers who published misleading stories should publish a retraction statement. Misinformation causes great harm https://open.substack.com/pub/christinapagel/p/guest-post-a-terrible-academic-paper?r=11blfp&utm_medium=ios

Excess deaths arise directly and indirectly from the Covid pandemic. This includes:
- increased pressure on NHS urgent care services, resulting in poorer patient outcomes
- direct effects of Covid-19 infection
- disruption to chronic disease prevention, detection and management.

“Direct effects” includes both acute Covid and elevated cardiovascular risk post infection.

For ages 50-64, deaths involving cardiovascular diseases such as heart disease and stroke were 33% higher than expected.

Other causes with significant excess deaths at ages 50-64 were acute respiratory infections (43% excess) and diabetes (35% excess).

Across all ages, deaths in a private home were 22% higher than expected compared with 10% in hospitals, no excess deaths in care homes, and 12% fewer deaths than expected in hospices.

Deaths from cardiovascular causes in private homes were 27% higher than expected.

Newly published data from OHID shows that, from June 2022 to June 2023, excess deaths were highest for ages 50-64, at 15% above normal.

In comparison, excess deaths were 11% higher than expected for under 25s and 25-49s, and were 9% higher for over 65s.

In previous analysis ONS and the CMI each found over 7% more deaths in 2022 compared to expectations, with the trend persisting into 2023.

We go further by providing a granular breakdown of cause, place and age group to inform prevention and disease management efforts.

The lead author is my LCP colleague Dr Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard. Our co-authors include Sarah Caul (ONS), John Newton (OHID) and Emily Whamond (DHSC).

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(23)00221-1/fulltext

Our new commentary published in @thelancet discusses the ongoing excess deaths in the UK, and for the first time provides granular analysis by age, place and cause.

Excess deaths now highest for middle-aged adults, driven by cardiovascular causes.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(23)00221-1/fulltext

CMI calculates 205,400 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 33,900 in 2023, with most of the excess deaths registered in the first 3 months.

Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 5.6% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. 2/2
https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2045%202023%20v01%202023-11-21.pdf

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 10 November.

Death rates this week were 3% higher than the equivalent week in 2019, based on death registrations data. 1/2

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2045%202023%20v01%202023-11-21.pdf

There were 311 deaths registered in England and Wales this week where COVID was mentioned on the death certificate. That’s lower than last week (332).

67% of deaths with COVID mentioned on the death certificate had it listed as underlying cause.

ONS deaths data has been released for week ending 10 Nov.

Death counts were 5% higher than the 5-year average this week with 534 more deaths registered compared to the average.

Year-to-date there have been 503,404 deaths registered, 6% more than the 5-year average.

Hospital admissions with COVID in England decreased by 8% in-week.

R-estimate has risen to 0.95.

Admissions slightly rose in the East (+4%) and the South East (+1%) , but fell elsewhere. Biggest decrease in the NE&Yorks (-22%).

Acute bed occupancy is down by 15%.

@TimWardCam that would certainly be true if we were talking about a one-off spike in deaths, eg the first wave only, or a fixed finite population (ie zero births). But the direct and indirect consequences of the pandemic are ongoing, causing death rates to remain elevated. With new excess deaths arising there is no reason to expect to revert to zero within 50 or even 100 years.

The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 3 November.

Death rates this week were 4% higher than the equivalent week in 2019, based on death registrations data. 1/2

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2044%202023%20v01%202023-11-14.pdf

CMI calculates 205,000 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 33,400 in 2023, with most of the excess deaths registered in the first 3 months.

Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 5.5% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. 2/2

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2044%202023%20v01%202023-11-14.pdf