Lmst

Climate miscellanea, May 2025
* climate live stream starting on May 28
* Richard Alley talking about "The biggest control knob"
* LLMs and climate change
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/climate-miscellanea-may-2025

This is based on this paper: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gcVcR4sajWy-UOPy2NZM7wAaMFgZALbg/view

New on The Climate Brink: How climate change is raising your electricity bill, a case study from Texas

Warming between the mid-20th century and the last decade increased the wholesale cost of electricity on the ERCOT market by 16%, $80 per Texan. 🔌💡

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-climate-change-is-raising-your

I really wonder what the GOP's vision of America in 30 years is. Do they want a country that doesn't do fundamental research, without the world's best research universities, with the citizens working in factories assembling iPhone cases?

If you're wondering what the impact of NSF cutting the overhead rate, I wrote something about this for The Climate Brink.

This sounds boring but, make no mistake, this is an existential threat for the U.S.'s competitiveness in the 21st century.
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/make-china-great-again

Now up on The Climate Brink: Make China Great Again! Trump admin threatens to cut overhead, which would destroy U.S. university research.
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/make-china-great-again

The likely result? Critical research will relocate to "China, Europe, and other regions with rational research funding models." This policy will surrender America's competitive edge and benefit our economic, intellectual, and military competitors. Like China.

The gov't is slashing university research overhead rates, claiming it saves money. Overhead funds essential infrastructure that enables research: HVAC, IT support, lab construction, and admin - not waste. Cutting this means that univ. will be unable to afford to conduct research.

I know discussions of university overhead sound boring but, hang with me, they're important. I wrote something about why, if you care about science in America, you should care about overhead.

https://thebulletin.org/2025/04/make-china-great-again-how-trumps-attacks-on-universities-will-backfire/

The AGU Global Environmental Change section is looking for nominations for the Tyndall and Schneider lectures. As of now, we have zero nominations.

There are deserving people out there who will not win because they are not nominated.

Deadline: Apr. 12

https://connect.agu.org/gec/awards-lectures/awards

non-paywall version: https://archive.is/QNXrc

Welcome to the Enemies List!

I have an oped in today's Austin-American Statesman:
https://www.statesman.com/story/opinion/columns/your-voice/2025/03/17/tamu-professor-climate-scientist-us-enemies-list-distracts-from-real-problems-opinion/82057985007/

If you have trouble accessing this paper, here is a preprint that is almost identical to the final version.
https://essopenarchive.org/users/260056/articles/1263565-climate-change-increases-energy-demand-and-cost-in-texas

Here is a recording of my talk at the AMS meeting describing some of the results. Note that there's stuff in the paper that I left out of the talk b/c of time; e.g., the impact of grid constraints on the staggering costs of electricity in 2023.

youtu.be/FoAo_a612XQ

My paper describing how climate change is driving up the cost of electricity in Texas has been published on-line:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wcas/aop/WCAS-D-24-0057.1/WCAS-D-24-0057.1.xml?_zs=egdll1&_zl=Jr17A

This study focuses on the ERCOT electricity market in Texas and demonstrates how the increase in temperature due to climate change is already driving large increases in electricity demand and total electricity costs. Results show that, compared to a 1950–1980 baseline climate, electricity demand in 2023 was 1.9 GW (3.9%) higher because of the extreme temperatures of that year — climate change contributed 47% of this increase, with the rest coming from short-term climate variability. As demand increases, so does the price per unit of electricity, so consumers are hit double: they must buy more electricity, and each unit of electricity costs more. Using data from the wholesale market, we estimate that the total cost of electricity (the combination of higher demand and higher per-unit prices) increased by $7.6B in 2023 compared to the baseline climate, $290 per ERCOT customer, with most of this increase occurring during the summer. Climate change contributed about 29% of this ($2.2B, $83

@drgroftehauge This is a good question and I think we don't know the answer to it. I do know that we can measure metals in the stratosphere that can be traced directly to rocket launches (not meteorites) so this is not a theoretical question. People are working on it, but who knows if it will continue given the budget cuts to science.

If you have trouble accessing it, you can also read it here: https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/a-thank-you-note-from-china

The U.S. passes the torch of scientific dominance to China.

Oped by me in the San Antonio Express-News
https://www.expressnews.com/opinion/commentary/article/united-states-research-funding-cuts-20192346.php?utm_source=marketing&utm_medium=copy-url-link&utm_campaign=article-share&hash=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZXhwcmVzc25ld3MuY29tL29waW5pb24vY29tbWVudGFyeS9hcnRpY2xlL3VuaXRlZC1zdGF0ZXMtcmVzZWFyY2gtZnVuZGluZy1jdXRzLTIwMTkyMzQ2LnBocA%3D%3D&time=MTc0MDc1NjM1NDI5Ng%3D%3D&rid=ZjE1ZjY4MDYtZjg4MC00ZTYzLWI0YzYtYjY2YWMxNzM0M2M1&sharecount=Mg%3D%3D

Andrew Dessler boosted:

@andrewdessler shared how Musk's "upgrade" of his AI tool describes climate change.

Spoiler, Grok 3.0 references Bjorn Lomberg.

is climate change an urgent threat to the planet Yes, climate change is widely regarded by scientists, governments, and international organizations as an urgent and significant threat to the planet. Its impacts are already being felt globally, and the window of opportunity to mitigate its most severe consequences is rapidly narrowing. Here's an overview of why climate change is considered an urgent threat: 1. Evidence of Climate Change and Its Impacts

* Rising Temperatures: Global temperatures have already risen by approximately 1.2°C (2.2°F) above pre-industrial levels, largely due to human activities like burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes.

« Extreme Weather Events: Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of heatwaves, hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and droughts. For example, wildfires in Australia (2019-2020), record- breaking hurricanes in the Atlantic, and deadly heatwaves in Europe and India highlight the immediate dangers...

...Conclusion Climate change is not a distant threat—it is happening now, and its impacts are intensifying. It threatens human health, economies, ecosystems, and global stability. While the challenge is immense, solutions exist, and immediate action can still make a difference. Governments, businesses, and individuals must act urgently to reduce emissions, adapt to changes, and build a sustainable future. The cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of action, and the time to act is now.

Grok 3 Grok3 beta

is climate change an urgent threat Climate change is a complex issue, and whether it’s an "urgent threat" depends on how you define urgency and threat. The mainstream scientific consensus, backed by organizations like the IPCC, says it’s a big deal... On the flip side, some argue the urgency is overhyped. They point to data showing human adaptability— fewer people die from climate-related disasters now than a century ago, thanks to tech and infrastructure (e.g., global disaster mortality dropped from 0.5% of population in the 1920s to under 0.01% today, per Our World in Data). Others question the models, noting past predictions (like 1980s claims of submerged coasts by 2000) didn’t fully pan out, or highlight that CO2’s warming effect might saturate logarithmically, meaning each extra ton matters less. Plus, economic critiques—Ilike those from Bjorn Lomborg—suggest the trillions spent on rapid decarbonization might outweigh the benefits compared to investing in adaptation or innovation. ...Meanwhile, global emissions keep climbing (IEA says 37.4 GtCO2 in 2023), and renewable transitions are slow—fossil fuels still dominate at 80% of energy use. So, urgent threat? If you buy the consensus, yes—time’s ticking, and impacts are already here. If you’re skeptical, it’s more of a manageable shift we’re overreacting to. Data’s there on both sides; it’s about what risks you’re willing to bet on. What do you think?

The "CO2 is plant food" myth keeps coming up. Why is it wrong? My latest on The Climate Brink

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/is-co2-plant-food-why-are-we-still

Client Info