This caught my eye on the latest @riskybusiness newsletter by @campuscodi
It quotes a PR piece by the Dutch Digital Trust Centre, and the newsletter says
The same study also found that in 95 out of 100 cases, companies were forced to pay the ransom or go bankrupt.
I have two questions about this. First and most importantly I'm trying to understand where they got that number from.
The study they refer to is a PhD by Tom Meurs which is available in English.
But having looked at that PhD I cannot find anything which would support those numbers. The only reference about companies paying to avoid bankruptcy is a reference to another study which found that 8 out of the 41 (20%) of organisations they interviewed said they to avoid bankruptcy.
I have not read that in detail but I would assume that in a interview, people would want to say they paid because they had to as paying is frowned upon.
The other question is for Catalin and Patrick. When I translate it, I get
Meurs' research shows that companies often have no choice but to pay a ransom: "In roughly 5 out of 100 cases where a ransom is paid, victims do have the option of recovering by other means than paying, but choose to pay anyway - for example, to recover faster or avoid reputation damage. In the remaining 95 cases, there is no other option to recover. In those cases, their entire IT infrastructure is broken and unrecoverable, making paying a ransom the only option to avoid bankruptcy."
Even if we trust the number, I think there is a key difference lost in the newsletter. It says among those who paid, 95% said it was because they had no option. Not that 95% had no option but to pay or risk bankruptcy.
But I just came up with another idea of where that number is from. 95 and 5 sound suspiciously like confidence and p values, which makes me suspect someone fed that PhD into a LLM and it hallucinated that number and summary.
Until someone points me at an actual source for that number I will treat it with a lot of skepticism.
[Edit: linked to and corrected the author source, while the author of the PhD works for the police, the article linked in the newsletter is published by the "Digital Trust Centre"]
[Edit 2: Small clarification]