@DenisCOVIDinfoguy @auscovid19 In the latest available genomic sequencing data for NZ, the new NB.1.8.1 variant was growing sharply, so is likely driving this new wave.
https://aus.social/@mike_honey_/114561208748421396
Mike Honey
Data Visualisation and Data Integration specialist - Melbourne, Australia
NSW is reporting the sharpest growth in their Aged Care metrics. The growth rate of this NB.1.8.1 wave looks significantly faster than the XEC wave in Dec/Jan.
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Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:
The risk estimate is steady at 0.4% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-257.
That implies an 11% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.
@fritzoids That seems possible - thanks for adding the local context.
@MatWright Thanks for the feedback Mat, and I'm glad it's useful.
@bhawthorne @graydon actually the US is still contributing the lions share of data recently. It might be slowing though.
https://aus.social/@mike_honey_/114561249262443826
For Europe (excluding the UK), the XFG.* variant shows a moderate growth advantage of 2% per day (14% per week) over LP.8.1.*. Any crossover looks distant.
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In France, XFJ.* grew to sharply from late-April to reach 19%. Earlier, it grew in Germany to 9%.
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Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to early May.
The LP.8.1.* variant continued to dominate, growing steadily to around 52% frequency.
The presumed next challengers are still at low frequencies but growing – XFG.* to around 10%, and XDV.* (led by NB.1.8.1) to around 6%, and also XFJ.* grew to 5%.
For the UK, the XFG.* variant shows a strong growth advantage of 4.6% per day (32% per week) over LP.8.1.*, which predicts a crossover in late May.
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Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to late April.
The LP.8.1.* variant has taken over dominance, growing steadily to around 57% frequency.
The XEC.* variant has fallen to around 25%.
Here's the latest variant picture for Canada to early May.
The LP.8.1.* variant remains dominant, growing strongly to 48%.
It’s a bit hard to pick what might come next in Canada, neither XFG.* or XDV.* have shown much success yet.
The late spike in DeFLuQE variants seems driven by MC.10.1.7.
Interactive genomic sequencing dataviz, code, acknowledgements and more info here:
https://github.com/Mike-Honey/covid-19-genomes#readme
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Swarm_Bees_outdoor_stereo by leonseptavaux -- https://freesound.org/s/573839/ -- License: Attribution 4.0
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This thread discusses the global variant picture, including analysis on the growth of the XDV.* clan (led by NB.1.8.1).
https://aus.social/@mike_honey_/114560357549161377
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Here's an animated map showing the spread of the NB.1.8.1 variant, and it’s child variants PQ.1 and PQ.2. The first sample was reported in England in January, but judging from it’s early spread, the origin was likely an undersampled region in Asia.
It was soon reported across Asia and Australia. Growth accelerated from late March and it is now showing up almost everywhere that is still sharing sequencing data.
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