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LWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 14, 9:44 AM EDT

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202603141344-KLWX-FXUS61-AFDLWX

SPC expects the system moving into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys to be a significant hazard to the region. The system will cross the mountains on Monday bring rain, thunderstorms, and isolated severe thunderstorms.

SPC expects sufficient shear for isolated tornadoes to form from isolated supercells or from the linear convective system along the advancing cold front.

Tidy up the yard this weekend. Include access to shelter in Monday’s plans.

#VAwx #NCwx

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Blacksburg, VA
400 AM EDT, Saturday, March 14, 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook covers north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, and west central Virginia.

Day One: Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

Days Two Through Seven: Sunday through Friday.

There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the primary threats, with a secondary hail threat.

Today, mostly sunny with a high near 64. Northwest wind around 9 mph.

Tonight, mostly clear with a low around 46. East wind around 7 mph.

Sunday, a slight chance of showers after 2 pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 66. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday night, showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 am, then showers likely between 2 am and 5 am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 am. Low around 58. South wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday, showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 74. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday night, rain showers before 5 am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 36. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

The bay winds will be typical spring 5-10 MPH but seas will be 3-4 feet up north and 2-3 feet in central and southern bay.

Water remains cold. Surfers and paddlers will be wearing wet suits.

Day 3 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK
0226 AM CDT, Sat Mar 14, 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

There’s an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over much of the Carolinas, Virginia, and extending northward into southern Pennsylvania.

Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are forecast for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Monday.

A large, deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward from the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with strong wind fields aloft. A surface low moves from Lower Michigan into southern Quebec, with a deep pre-frontal trough extending southward across eastern Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina by around 21Z. Southerly winds ahead of this trough/front will bring 60s F dewpoints as far north as southeast Pennsylvania.

Amenaza moderada de clima severo el lunes (principalmente por la tarde y temprano en la noche) desde las Carolinas hacia #Virginia y #Maryland. La cizalladura y la elevación del viento serán suficientes para granizo, vientos dañinos y tornados aislados. #VAwx #MDwx

Moderate threat for severe weather on Monday (mostly afternoon and early evening) from the Carolinas into #Virginia and #Maryland. Wind shear and lift will be sufficient for hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. #VAwx #MDwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
636 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence continues to increase for an impactful convective environment on Monday as a front passes through. Plummeting temperatures will follow in the wake of the front, with wintry weather and strong gusty winds possible on the backside of the frontal passage.

Temperatures look to plummet Tuesday through Thursday next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming temperatures through the weekend. Limited fire concerns today.

2) A strong cold front approaches Monday, with increasing chances for severe weather expected across the region.

3) Cold temperatures return Tuesday in the wake of a cold front, and the mountains may receive some upslope snow showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures through the weekend. Limited fire concerns today.

Tranquil weather expected today and Sunday with brief high pressure passing north of the area. Upper flow will begin to return from the southwest by tonight and especially on Sunday in advance of an amplifying trough ejecting east from the Rockies. As a result, should see temperatures slightly above normal both today and Sunday.

Daytime mixing today should allow dew points to fall into the teens and 20s and with temperatures warming into the 50s and lower 60s, min RH values fall into the lower 20 percent range. Fine fuels are now plenty dry given a full day of drying yesterday, but with lighter winds expected today, rapid fire spread potential should be on the lower side. Use caution if burning today as grass and leaf litter will be easy to ignite given the dry airmass in place.

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

From NWS Wakefield on FB: A strong cold front approaches the area Monday, with strong to severe storms looking increasingly likely from late morning through the evening. Impacts from this system could be significant. All severe hazards are possible with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the primary threats. Stay weather aware and continue to monitor forecasts over the weekend!

#VAWX

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