I've put together my predictions for 2026 and 2027 temperatures over at The Climate Brink. I expect 2026 will likely end up similar to 2023 and 2025 at ~1.4C, while 2027 will likely be considerably warmer (conditional on El Nino): https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/my-2026-and-2027-global-temperature
Peter du Toit
𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿: FutureClimate IQ | I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 30 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
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When an extreme event hits a place that has no built resilience, that place, is more often than not taken below a tipping point from which complete recovery is not possible.
This leads to permanent loss.
We see this playing out everywhere.
NEW IRI ENSO Forecast (Dec 19) here:
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_update
NEW from Hansen et al
"At least a moderate El Nino beginning in 2026 leads us to the projection in Fig. 5, with global temperature reaching a minimum at or above +1.4°C within several months and then rising to a record global temperature of about +1.7°C in 2027."
Source: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/GlobalTemperaturePrediction2025.12.18.pdf
Uber joining a whole slew of American companies bending their knee to Trump.
https://cleantechnica.com/2025/12/10/uber-abandons-evs-climate-after-cozying-up-with-trump/
When you bet on the past you lose.
China solidifying its position as the world’s first electrostate. I am sure they cannot believe their good fortune.
For every 1°C that we heat the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water.
Extreme precipitation willl become more frequent putting people living near seasonal rivers at great risk.
We need robust early warning systems for people living near rivers!
More from the coalition of planet destroyers:
“After the objections of the U.S. official, as well as some from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia and other oil and gas producing nations, the summary for policymakers language was dropped entirely rather than renegotiated.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/11/climate/unep-climate-report-trump-administration.html
The planet killers are relentless.
This from South Africa as we pass through ~1.5°C
https://topauto.co.za/news/138613/big-win-for-shell-in-south-africa/
NEW from the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre
"La Niña is favored to continue for the next month or two, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (68% chance)
Full details: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
NEW from the JMA:
"The [current] La Niña-like conditions will rapidly weaken until the end of winter. Therefore, it is more likely (80%) that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until the boreal spring."
Full outlook text: https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html
As I have said before don't look away from this! There is *every* indication that events such as this will become more frequent and severe as we continue to heat.
What we are witnessing here has taken place with background heating of ~1.5ºC
We are *firmly* on track - 75% certain - to crossing 2ºC
100% this:
“If we want an internet where publishers retain autonomy and readers retain agency, we need to treat RSS not as legacy plumbing but as strategic infrastructure.”
What a surprise!
Who would have guessed!
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/new-york-congestion-pricing-pollution
Peter du Toit boosted:
It appears that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has, within the past week, scrubbed a large amount of climate change content from its official website, as well as *removed human-caused warming* from the discussion on its "causes of climate change" page.
@disco3000 major news room disconnect is likely one explanation 🤷🏻
Background global heating 1.5ºC (current 12-month running mean (ERA5))
425.77 ppm global CO2 concentrations year-to-date
With current government emission reduction commitments there is 75% chance 2ºC will be breached (via UNEP)
We are on a highway to hell.
In our part of the world there is so much talk about the 2026 World Cup draw last night and its opening game.
As fate will have it, it will be a repeat of this opening game on June 11, 2010!
Mexico vs South Africa
Estadio Azteca, June 11, 2026
ICYMI: State of the Climate in the Arab Region 2024
“Intense heatwaves are pushing society to the limits. Human health, ecosystems and economies can’t cope with extended spells of more than 50°C – it is simply too hot to handle”
Global background heating ~1.5°C
https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/temperature-increase-accelerating-arab-region-escalating-impacts
I just analysed the latest Sentinel-2 satellite images for the storage dams feeding Knysna South Africa.
This is not looking good - at all. Is this the first South African town to hit Day Zero?
https://peterdutoit.com/tracking-knysnas-water-crisis-satellite-images-showthe-drama-unfolding/
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