#ChenowethStephanThreshold

2024-12-23

@markusreuter

Based on the 2022 population estimate of non-occupied Georgia of about 3.7 million [1], the #ChenowethStephan statistical threshold of 3.5% of the population of a country in sustained #CivilDisobedience / #NonViolentProtest as the threshold for success is about 130 thousand. 100k is clearly a round number estimate, but would still give 2.7%.

We'll soon know if this case is consistent with the #ChenowethStephanThreshold .

[1] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_

[2] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erica_Ch

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