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#CrisisPrediction

Jeff SchlentzJeff@mastodon.opencloud.lu
2024-11-28

JRC 26.11.2024
Publication

Mid-term Early Warning – anticipating crisis 6 months ahead
Overview of Existing Knowledge on Enhanced Situational Awareness for Crisis Management

site: publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
pdf: publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

#CrisisManagement #IPCR #SituationalAwareness #EarlyWarning #JRC #CrisisPrediction

Main findings The Joint Research Centre embarked on an exercise to evaluate its strengths and challenges of its midterm early warning capabilities. To achieve this, experts from various groups were tasked with completing "signal templates” on a quarterly basis throughout 2023. The collaborative effort has shown promise in detecting multi- hazard crises early, within a 4-6 month timeframe. One of the major challenges we encountered was the diverse range of tools and methodologies used across the JRC to monitor and forecast various risks. (...) However, we found it difficult to fully reconcile the differences among the various risks, including the monitoring methods used, lead times, update frequencies, and information sources. Some risks still rely on manual monitoring, making it challenging to set thresholds for signal detection. Nonetheless, our current process of compiling signal templates is heavily reliant on a combination of existing knowledge of multi-hazard risks, cascading risks, causal loops, scenarios, crisis drivers, early warnings, and anticipatory action. Consequently, we still have a way to go in generating timely and actionable evidence in a standardized format for all risk types that could be immediately up-taken by decision makers. An integrated multi-hazard mid-term early warning system is critically needed, emphasizing the importance of ongoing efforts in knowledge collection, validation, and expansion of forecast models. (...)
CRAZ.AIcraz_ai
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