WATERLOO REGION FOURTH MOST IMPACTED BY U.S. TARIFFS
On Mar. 4, 2025, the U.S. implemented their 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods and 10 per cent on energy and potash exports from Canada to the U.S.
Waterloo Region and Guelph’s automotive and agricultural sectors have been deeply affected by the tariffs. The region ranks fourth most affected in Canada, showing its economic vulnerability to cross-border trade policies.
The Waterloo Regional Council administration and finance committee presented a report at its Apr. 8 meeting outlining the impacts on the municipality’s budget. The report shows that $154 million or 9.7 per cent of the region’s operating budget could be impacted by the tariffs. It also shows that the cost of capital projects will increase by $16.5 million.
The council directed Waterloo Region staff members to review procurement processes for opportunities to support the “Buy Canadian” initiative. Regional staff will present that report later.
“This would have a larger impact on regions of the country that produce agricultural and manufactured goods for export to the U.S.,” Ken Jackson, an associate professor and undergraduate economics program director, said.
He said KW, Guelph, and Brantford all have higher employment rates in the manufacturing industry. The region’s proximity to U.S. markets has long made it a hub for export-focused industries.
“Those exports are now at risk of either falling in value or disappearing entirely,” Jackson said. “The high level of employment in manufacturing means that these regions are particularly at risk from disruption in Canadian exports to the United States.”
Similarly, agricultural production in Southwestern Ontario for the export market is at risk.
Guelph MPP and Green Party of Ontario Leader Mike Schreiner and Haldimand–Norfolk MPP Bobbi Ann Brady co-sponsored a private member’s bill at Queen’s Park on May 13. If passed, the bill would create a task force of farmers, agricultural experts and land-use planners to develop recommendations to create a food belt protection plan for the Ontario farmlands. This report will also address issues like improving soil health and protecting farmlands.
Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge (KWC), with a manufacturing base and population size four times that of Guelph or Brantford, faces proportionally greater economic exposure.
Short-term implications remain uncertain due to frequent shifts in U.S. trade policy. The long-term implications depend on whether the policies continue for the next four years or as permanent changes.
Meanwhile, Guelph, like other communities, has seen reduced investment activities, business acquisitions and construction projects. While the tariffs impact all businesses differently, from an employment standpoint, the largest impacted industry is automotive parts manufacturing.
“We reacted immediately with the launch of the Tariff and Trade Hub,” Christine Chapman, Economic Development Manager at The City of Guelph, said. “We are directly reaching out to businesses we suspect are directly impacted by export tariffs.”
Guelph also has a high concentration of employment, export/import activity and GDP in the automotive sector. These concentrations increase the city’s vulnerability to trade disruptions.
Canadian labour leaders reacted by saying the policies implemented threaten thousands of jobs in Ontario’s manufacturing industry.
Lana Payne, the national president of Unifor, representing more than 20,000 Canadian auto workers, said the tariff on imported vehicles is an effort to take jobs from Canada by forcing production to shift south of the border.
She warned that because the North American auto sector is highly integrated, with parts and vehicles moving across the Canada-U.S. border several times before completion, the tariffs could disrupt supply chains on both sides.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford also voiced support for strong countermeasures, saying that he backs “dollar for dollar” tariffs in retaliation and urging Prime Minister Mark Carney to consider targeting American-made vehicles in Canada.
If tariff uncertainty lingers, hiring freezes and hesitancy in business expansion are likely to persist.
#businessExpansion #buyCanadian #canadaUsBorder #christineChapman #DougFord #economicDevelopmentManager #financeCommittee #kenJackson #LanaPayne #premierDougFord #SangjunHan #tariffs #theCityOfGuelph #WaterlooRegionalCouncil
