Ceasefire Was the Mistake. Betrayal, the Reminder.
India paused at the edge of history, and Pakistan did what it always does.
The ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump between India and Pakistan lasted less than the flying time between Washington and Islamabad, just over four hours, to be precise, before being blatantly violated by Pakistani shelling across the Line of Control. The world must understand: peace with a proxy state is a strategic illusion.
No Indian was surprised. Pakistan’s duplicity is textbook. Trump’s naivety was not.
This ceasefire, hailed by some as a diplomatic breakthrough, now stands as a case study in strategic misjudgment. India agreed to pause at a moment when it had the momentum, the moral authority, and the military edge. The nation stood united. The enemy was exposed. And for the first time in decades, the world wasn’t asking India to stay silent; they were watching to see how far we’d go.
This was Modi’s golden hour. An opportunity to correct history, reclaim Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and finally hold a rogue state accountable, and redraw the regional narrative, once and for all. Prime Minister Narendra Modi stood at a moment that could have defined his legacy, not just as a leader, but as a statesman who reshaped South Asia.
Instead, he paused. He folded to a ceasefire pushed by Donald Trump, a man chasing relevance, not resolution. Predictably, that fragile truce shattered within four hours.
But perhaps this was not an ending, but a reset. By violating the ceasefire so quickly, Pakistan has done more than break a promise, it may have reopened a door. It has done a favor that every Indian today is grateful for.
It’s almost as if the cosmos, the very universe itself, has given Prime Minister Modi a second chance, to correct the hesitation, to finish what was started.
After all, even Mother Universe has her favourites.
But what if Pakistan had pretended to honour the ceasefire?
What if, instead of violating it within hours, it had played the long game, waited a few weeks or months, resumed back channel terror, and struck when global attention had waned?
India’s stance would have collapsed under its own weight, written off as all hue and no fizz.
We would have been remembered as the nation that roared when it was wronged and retreated when it had every military, diplomatic, moral, and strategic advantage.
That would have been more dangerous than a broken truce. It would have been a self-inflicted historical wound, one that generations down the line would read as yet another chapter in India’s long list of strategic hesitations.
Let it be clear: historical blunders don’t get second chances. But today, fate has offered one. And India must not waste it again.
10 reasons why the ceasefire was a strategic miscalculation
1. PoK is not optional: A ceasefire without a roadmap for reclaiming Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) is not strategy, it’s submission dressed as restraint. Accepting a ceasefire without even naming it in the resolution undermines our sovereignty and long-standing claim.
2. We’re repeating history, and expecting a different result: Historically, every ceasefire or dialogue attempt has followed this cycle: a terror attack, global outrage, Pakistani denial, and eventual Indian de-escalation. Nothing changes. The 2003 ceasefire was violated over 7,000 times by 2020, and each attempt at talks since has been followed by proxy violence. Ceasefire violations: 2,140 in 2018, 3,479 in 2019, 5,133 in 2020, the highest in two decades.
[Ministry of Defence, Government of India]
3. We had the upper hand, for once: For the first time since Kargil, India had tactical advantage, diplomatic support, and internal momentum. Why surrender it halfway? Calling a ceasefire when momentum was peaking defied strategic logic.
4. Pakistan buys time, not peace: Every ceasefire becomes Pakistan’s breathing room, to rebuild camps, shift terror assets, and receive international funds. Within 48 hours of this ceasefire, Pakistan began lobbying OIC nations and the IMF for further assistance. Pakistan secured a $1.1B IMF tranche on May 9, 2025, the same day the ceasefire was announced.
[IMF Board Statement, 2025]. You think this is a coincidence?
5. Global institutions continue to fund terror: Despite being on the FATF grey list (2018–2022), Pakistan received over $15 billion in IMF, World Bank, and ADB funding from 2019 to 2024, and in April 2025, the IMF approved a $1.1 billion bailout tranche just days before the ceasefire announcement. This ceasefire helps Pakistan paint itself as stable again, without dismantling its jihadist infrastructure. Pakistan spent $10B on defence in FY2024, despite economic collapse and IMF conditions. [SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, 2025] How? No prizes for guessing.
6. The internal fractures in Pakistan were exposed: The timing was historic, Balochistan saw protests in 23 districts, the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) openly defied the military, and Sindhi nationalist groups had revived calls for autonomy. A sustained Indian campaign could have amplified these voices and pressured Pakistan from within. Instead, the ceasefire granted Islamabad space to suppress dissent again. UN Special Rapporteurs flagged 1,200+ enforced disappearances in Balochistan as of 2024. [OHCHR, April 2024]. And we agreed to look away? Really?
7. China is the silent winner: By halting military pressure, India inadvertently relieved stress on China’s strategic assets, especially, The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through PoK and Balochistan, and secures its military posts in Gilgit-Baltistan. The ceasefire stabilizes these routes and protects China’s $65B investment in CPEC, that passes directly through disputed Indian territory in Gilgit-Baltistan.
8. We’ve left unfinished business, yet again: From Kargil (1999) to Uri (2016), from Pulwama (2019) to Rajouri (2025), Indian soldiers have paid the price of restraint. Accepting a ceasefire without achieving strategic depth or territorial recovery renders their sacrifices incomplete. India lost 40 CRPF personnel in Pulwama and over 2,000 soldiers in Kargil, none of these outcomes led to permanent deterrence. The blood of our soldiers deserves more than diplomacy.
9. It sends the wrong message to allies and enemies alike: For strategic allies like the U.S., France, Japan, and the UAE, this ceasefire signals hesitancy and inconsistency.
For enemies, Pakistan, and watching actors like China, Iran, and Turkey, it confirms that India can be forced to retreat through diplomacy.
“Strong democracies finish what they start.” — Adm. John Aquilino, Indo-Pacific Command (2024)
10. It ignores the people of PoK, again: By not even naming PoK in the ceasefire framework, India abandoned the 3 million+ citizens living under Pakistani military and ISI rule, without rights, identity, or representation. PoK continues to suffer Islamization, demographic manipulation, and economic neglect. PoK’s per capita income is one-third of J&K’s, and unemployment stands at 36%. [Institute for Conflict Management Report, 2024]
Ceasefire or strategic miscalculation? India must not blink again
This ceasefire, brokered hastily, celebrated prematurely, and broken predictably by Pakistan, was not diplomacy. It was a failure of diplomacy. Let’s get this straight, without coverups.
India had the upper hand: militarily, morally, and globally. Yet it chose a brokered pause over pursuit. Pakistan, true to form, used the moment to regroup, deceive, and strike again. The IMF resumed funding. China regained space.
Worse, the world watched as India blinked at the brink of rewriting history.
Let’s be clear: Pakistan did not want peace, it wanted time. And India gave it away.
But history is not always cruel. Sometimes, it circles back with a second chance. Pakistan’s blatant violation of the ceasefire is just that, a cosmic reset, an opportunity to correct a critical miscalculation.
And let’s not forget: this is also a war of narratives and perceptions.
While soldiers hold forward posts, India is under equal pressure to hold the narrative line, on global forums, in media briefings, and through digital diplomacy. If we lose the story, we risk losing the support that matters.
There will be no third chance. The time to finish what started is now.
And this time, we don’t pause. We prevail, and we shape the story while doing it.
Sources and References
- Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India
1994 Parliamentary Resolution on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK)
https://mea.gov.in - Ministry of Defence, Government of India
Annual Reports on Ceasefire Violations (2018–2021)
https://mod.gov.in - CVOTER Survey (January 2024)
Public Sentiment on Military Action Post-Rajouri Attacks
Coverage: Hindustan Times, Times Now - International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Pakistan Loan Approvals and Disbursement Records
https://www.imf.org - Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Military Expenditure Database: Pakistan, 2024–25
https://sipri.org - Financial Action Task Force (FATF)
Pakistan Grey List Timeline and Compliance Reports (2018–2022)
https://fatf-gafi.org - United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)
Statements on Enforced Disappearances in Balochistan (2024)
https://www.ohchr.org - Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
CPEC and China’s Strategic Investments in Gilgit-Baltistan
https://gjia.georgetown.edu - Institute for Conflict Management (New Delhi)
PoK Socioeconomic and Governance Analysis (2024 Report)
https://www.satp.org - Reuters, Al Jazeera, and The Hindu
Coverage on Ceasefire Announcement and Violation (May 2025)
https://reuters.com | https://aljazeera.com | https://thehindu.com
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