Lmst

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at Mar 14, 17:30z for portions of MHX

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day2otlk_20260314_1730.html

MHX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 14, 1:27 PM EDT

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202603141727-KMHX-FXUS62-AFDMHX

SPC expects the system moving into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys to be a significant hazard to the region. The system will cross the mountains on Monday bring rain, thunderstorms, and isolated severe thunderstorms.

SPC expects sufficient shear for isolated tornadoes to form from isolated supercells or from the linear convective system along the advancing cold front.

Tidy up the yard this weekend. Include access to shelter in Monday’s plans.

#VAwx #NCwx

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Blacksburg, VA
400 AM EDT, Saturday, March 14, 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook covers north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, and west central Virginia.

Day One: Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

Days Two Through Seven: Sunday through Friday.

There is an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the primary threats, with a secondary hail threat.

Today, mostly sunny with a high near 64. Northwest wind around 9 mph.

Tonight, mostly clear with a low around 46. East wind around 7 mph.

Sunday, a slight chance of showers after 2 pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 66. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday night, showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 am, then showers likely between 2 am and 5 am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 am. Low around 58. South wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday, showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 74. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday night, rain showers before 5 am, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 36. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

The bay winds will be typical spring 5-10 MPH but seas will be 3-4 feet up north and 2-3 feet in central and southern bay.

Water remains cold. Surfers and paddlers will be wearing wet suits.

Day 3 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK
0226 AM CDT, Sat Mar 14, 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

There’s an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over much of the Carolinas, Virginia, and extending northward into southern Pennsylvania.

Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are forecast for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Monday.

A large, deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward from the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with strong wind fields aloft. A surface low moves from Lower Michigan into southern Quebec, with a deep pre-frontal trough extending southward across eastern Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina by around 21Z. Southerly winds ahead of this trough/front will bring 60s F dewpoints as far north as southeast Pennsylvania.

MHX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 14, 7:43 AM EDT

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202603141143-KMHX-FXUS62-AFDMHX

#ncwx #wx

#NCwx #NWSMoreheadCity

National Weather Service
7:00 AM March 14, 2026
Newport/Morehead City, NC National Weather Service For Eastern North Carolina Monitoring Monday for Severe Weather OVERVIEW
A strong cold front will track across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas bringing an
increasing threat for strong to severe thunderstorms to ENC. Timing ▪Monday afternoon and evening
Hazards
and
Impacts ▪Potential hazards, some signiﬁcant,
include damaging winds, large hail,
and tornadoes
▪Exact storm mode and how
widespread storms yet to be
determined
▪This could be especially impactful for
areas dealing with cleanup from the
March 12th severe weather event NEXT
BRIEFING ▪As conditions warrant.
Follow weather.gov/mhx for updates.

#NCwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 317 AM Saturday...

* Marginal risk for a few isolated stronger wind gusts in the southern Piedmont Sunday afternoon.

* Enhanced Risk for severe storms Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 317 AM Saturday...

1) A few organized storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening, with isolated damaging winds possible across the southern Piedmont/Sandhills.

2) Anomalously potent system will spread convection across central NC Monday with increased chances for severe storms Monday afternoon and evening.

3) Cooler than normal temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday across central NC, with highs running 1520 degrees below normal.

DISCUSSION

As of 317 AM Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A few organized storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening, with isolated damaging winds possible across the southern Piedmont/Sandhills.

Strengthening swly flow along the western ridge of an offshore mid- level anti-cyclone will promote increasing moisture advection into the southeast on Sunday. At the sfc, esely flow will persist across central NC for much of the day as a sfc wave/low ride along the Carolina Coast. Forcing from this feature will likely spread showers and storms inland Sunday afternoon and evening.

Forecast soundings in the Southern Piedmont/Sandhills region indicate some support for potential mini supercells Sunday afternoon and evening. The 00Z RREFS contained a clustering of mid-level helicity swaths in this general vicinity. SBCAPE should be limited, and as such think stretching rotation to the sfc would be difficult. Additionally, CAPE profiles would not largely support hail. However, if a stronger storm or two develops, would not be surprised if a stronger gust mixes down from the stronger flow just above the sfc. As such, can`t rule out an isolated damaging wind gust in the southern Piedmont/Sandhills region Sunday afternoon.

#VAwx #NCwx

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
636 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence continues to increase for an impactful convective environment on Monday as a front passes through. Plummeting temperatures will follow in the wake of the front, with wintry weather and strong gusty winds possible on the backside of the frontal passage.

Temperatures look to plummet Tuesday through Thursday next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming temperatures through the weekend. Limited fire concerns today.

2) A strong cold front approaches Monday, with increasing chances for severe weather expected across the region.

3) Cold temperatures return Tuesday in the wake of a cold front, and the mountains may receive some upslope snow showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures through the weekend. Limited fire concerns today.

Tranquil weather expected today and Sunday with brief high pressure passing north of the area. Upper flow will begin to return from the southwest by tonight and especially on Sunday in advance of an amplifying trough ejecting east from the Rockies. As a result, should see temperatures slightly above normal both today and Sunday.

Daytime mixing today should allow dew points to fall into the teens and 20s and with temperatures warming into the 50s and lower 60s, min RH values fall into the lower 20 percent range. Fine fuels are now plenty dry given a full day of drying yesterday, but with lighter winds expected today, rapid fire spread potential should be on the lower side. Use caution if burning today as grass and leaf litter will be easy to ignite given the dry airmass in place.

#VAwx #NCwx #MDwx

From NWS Wakefield on FB: A strong cold front approaches the area Monday, with strong to severe storms looking increasingly likely from late morning through the evening. Impacts from this system could be significant. All severe hazards are possible with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the primary threats. Stay weather aware and continue to monitor forecasts over the weekend!

NWS graphic indicating severe storm Potential Monday

MHX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 14, 5:43 AM EDT

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202603140943-KMHX-FXUS62-AFDMHX

#ncwx #wx

MHX issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Mar 14, 5:08 AM EDT

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202603140908-KMHX-FLUS42-HWOMHX

#ncwx #wx

#NCwx #NWSRaleigh

National Weather Service
Raleigh, NC National Weather Service Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms
Level 3 Risk
Timing
Additional Info
Very
Low
Low
Med
High
None Severe Weather
Tornado, Wind ,
and/or Hail ●A line of strong to severe storms is expected Monday.
●Two main threats are possible:
○Strong to damaging winds.
○A few isolated tornadoes.
●Have multiple ways to receive watches/warnings. Monday, March 16, 2026
Central North Carolina
Threat Use these colors for the timing
matrix = Signiﬁcant threat possible Combined
TOR/WIND/HAIL 5% V ery Low 15% Low 15% +Sig Low 30% Med 30% +Sig Med 45% Med 45% +Sig High = Signiﬁcant threat possible Created: March 14, 2026
4:15 AM
●Late morning–early afternoon : A few storms may
develop, including supercells. An isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out.
●Afternoon–Evening: Highest chance for hazardous
weather. Strong storms expected as a cold front moves
through the area. A few tornadoes possible.

MHX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 14, 4:30 AM EDT

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202603140830-KMHX-FXUS62-AFDMHX

#ncwx #wx

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 3 Enhanced Convective Risk at Mar 14, 7:26z for portions of MHX

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day3otlk_20260314_0730.html

#ncwx #wx

The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Convective Risk at Mar 14, 5:58z for portions of MHX

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day2otlk_20260314_0600.html

#ncwx #wx

NEW BERN NC Mar 13 Climate Report: High: 61 Low: 31 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202603140547-KMHX-CDUS42-CLIEWN

#ncwx #wx

#NCwx #NWSMoreheadCity

National Weather Service
2:56 PM March 13, 2026
Newport/Morehead City, NC National Weather Service For Eastern North Carolina Monitoring Monday for Severe Weather OVERVIEW
A strong cold front will track across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas bringing an
increasing threat for strong to severe thunderstorms to ENC. Timing ▪Monday afternoon and evening
Hazards
and
Impacts ▪Potential hazards, some signiﬁcant,
include damaging winds, large hail,
and tornadoes
▪Exact storm mode and how
widespread storms yet to be
determined
▪This could be especially impactful for
areas dealing with cleanup from the
March 12th severe weather event NEXT
BRIEFING ▪As conditions warrant.
Follow weather.gov/mhx for updates.

MHX issues Summary Local Storm Report, 41 out of 41 reports were previously sent and not repeated here.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/?by=wfo&wfo=MHX&sts=202603121730&ets=202603121949

#ncwx #wx

[Delayed Report] 2 W Maysville [Onslow Co, NC] NWS Storm Survey reports Tornado at 12 Mar, 2:26 PM EDT -- Tornado survey found evidence of an EF 1 tornado in Onslow County near Maysville, with estimated peak winds of 90 mph.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/?by=wfo&wfo=MHX&sts=202603121826&ets=202603121826

#ncwx #wx

MHX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 13, 7:51 PM EDT

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202603132351-KMHX-FXUS62-AFDMHX

#ncwx #wx

NEW BERN NC Mar 13 Climate Report: High: 61 Low: 31 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202603132315-KMHX-CDUS42-CLIEWN

#ncwx #wx

#NCWX

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