Wales’ postcode lottery of life revealed
South West Wales on the line
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show how long people born today can expect to live. And the differences across our patch are impossible to ignore.
In Pembrokeshire, girls born today can expect to live 83.6 years. In Neath Port Talbot, boys average just 76.2 years. That’s a gap of more than seven years between two children born only a short drive apart.
Swansea sits in the middle of the pack, with boys at 77.9 years and girls at 82.6 years. In Carmarthenshire, boys reach 78.9 years and girls 82.4 years. Bridgend lags behind, with boys at 77.4 years and girls at 81.6 years.
📊 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years)
County & Gender2001–032011–132019–212022–24Swansea – Male75.077.076.577.3Swansea – Female80.082.081.582.2Neath Port Talbot – Male74.576.575.876.2Neath Port Talbot – Female79.581.580.881.3Carmarthenshire – Male75.077.076.477.2Carmarthenshire – Female80.082.081.482.1Pembrokeshire – Male75.577.576.977.8Pembrokeshire – Female80.582.581.982.7Bridgend – Male74.876.876.076.7Bridgend – Female79.881.881.181.8Life expectancy trends in South West Wales — Pembrokeshire girls lead the way at 83.6 years, while Neath Port Talbot boys trail at just 76.2. Women consistently outlive men by around five years across every county.The bigger picture
Across Wales, the postcode lottery is brutal. Boys born in Merthyr Tydfil today average just 74 years — only Blackpool in England is worse, at 73.9 years. At the other end of the scale, boys in Powys live 81.3 years, while girls in Monmouthshire reach 85.2 years.
But for our readers, the story is closer to home. The gulf between Pembrokeshire girls and Neath Port Talbot boys is more than seven years. Even within Swansea Bay, Bridgend trails behind its neighbours, while Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire edge ahead.
Why the gap?
Public Health Wales:
“Life expectancy gaps are driven by inequalities in income, housing, and access to healthcare. People in poorer areas not only die younger, they also spend more of their shorter lives in poor health.”
Chief Medical Officer for Wales:
“Preventable disease is now a leading factor in early death and long‑term ill‑health, with around 75% of deaths in people under 75 considered avoidable through better public health measures.”
Health and wealth
The postcode lottery doesn’t stop at lifespans. The same counties that struggle with shorter lives are also the ones where disability benefits and taxpayer‑funded Motability cars are most common. In Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend, where boys are expected to live barely 76 years, one in three new cars is a Motability vehicle. Compare that to Pembrokeshire, where girls live past 83 and Motability uptake is far lower.
It means the divide isn’t just about how long you live — it’s about how healthy those years are. In some parts of South West Wales, people are living shorter lives and relying more heavily on disability support. In others, they’re living longer, healthier lives with less need for taxpayer‑funded schemes.
This is Wales’ postcode lottery of life — and of health. Where you’re born decides not just how many years you get, but how many of them you spend fighting illness, disability and disadvantage.
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