@McFadden @mike_honey_ which link the one to app.powerbi.com or the one to gilchrist.ca? If it is gilchrist.ca, that is hosted on a free web hosting platform so there may other bad websites hosted on the same platform and so it gets a warning with them?

To learn how to create a Sankey diagram of variants circulating in your area, please read this guide ( https://mstdn.science/@jeffgilchrist/111737354908492086 ).

To learn how to see what variants are circulating in your area, please read this guide ( https://mstdn.science/@jeffgilchrist/110203494274348811 ). 8/

You can find weekly Ontario stats including variants at ( https://covid.gilchrist.ca/Ontario.html ).

The visualization tool for variants was created by @mike_honey_ and the source of this data can be found at ( https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzE5YzczODItMDQzMS00M2EzLWFjNWYtMjg3OTY3NTNhZDM3IiwidCI6ImRjMWYwNGY1LWMxZTUtNDQyOS1hODEyLTU3OTNiZTQ1YmY5ZCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3D%3D ). 7/

@mike_honey_ is now automatically generating new variant reports when he updates his data for various locations so it is easy to just click on a link and get the latest PDF version of the report instead of having to navigate through his tool.

You can get the latest Ontario variant report here ( https://mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genomes/output/Coronavirus%20-%20Genomic%20Sequencing%20-%20report%20Canada%20Ontario.pdf ).

You can get the latest Canada variant report here ( https://mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-genomes/output/Coronavirus%20-%20Genomic%20Sequencing%20-%20report%20Canada.pdf ). 6/

You can learn more about variant naming and mutations from this document ( https://docs.google.com/document/d/1q0g-fm2_2bt3Yduk59XNUwl8MQtHffn9nNB4CGJRk5M/edit?usp=sharing ).

It will be very interesting to see how Novavax LP.8.1 compares to Novavax JN.1 against the current XFG Stratus family considering LP.8.1.2 recombined with LF.7 to form XFG. 5/

The # of mutations alone can't tell you how different a variant will behave, sometimes just 1 key mutation can make the difference getting past current immune protections in a person who was vaccinated or infected with previous variants.

The X in XFG immediately signifies that it is a recombinant variant which means parts of two different variants combined with each other, in this case LF.7 and LP.8.1.2 which is why it has some mutations in common with the LP.8.1 variant. 4/

How different is LP.8.1 compared to the current XFG.5 variant circulating in Ontario?

You can see from the Venn diagram that LP.8.1 has 4 different amino acid mutations that aren't in the XFG.5 or JN.1 spike protein, and XFG.5 has 6 amino acid mutations not present in the other two ( https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/AllTimes/variants?nextcladePangoLineage=JN.1&nextcladePangoLineage1=LP.8.1&nextcladePangoLineage2=XFG.5&analysisMode=CompareEquals& ). LP.8.1 and XFG.5 have 5 amino acid mutations that are common between them in the spike protein so would be present in the fall 2025 LP.8.1 mRNA & Novavax Japan vaccine formulas. 3/

LP.8.1 is what this fall's Japan Novavax vaccine and the mRNA vaccines are designed for which is now almost gone and typical of how these things work with vaccine manufacturing timing while Novavax is providing the previous year's JN.1 vaccine formula for the USA again.

LP.8.1 is a descendant of JN.1 from several years ago which became KP.1 before it became LP.8 as seen in the Sankey diagram. Last year's mRNA vaccines were based on KP.2 which was a different branch of variants. 2/

*** Ontario Variant Update (to: Aug. 16, 2025) ***

Ontario COVID sequence updates have been more frequent over the past month with the XFG.* "Stratus" family of variants now at 74% of sequences, NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" at 22% and LP.8.1.* down to 3%.

Looking at specific variants as of mid August, XFG.5.1 is most prevalent at 13%, NB.1.8.1 in second at 10%, XFG.2 in third at 8.6% and XFG.3 in fourth at 7.4%. 🧵 1/

#Variants #COVID #XFG #Stratus

To learn more about the Importance of Indoor Air Quality: Wildfire Smoke & Cooking please read ( https://mstdn.science/@jeffgilchrist/112475293271117216 ). 28/

You can use HEPA filters indoors to improve air quality or build your own DIY filters using furnace filters with some tutorials in multiple languages from Shiven Taneja available here ( https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/1MohBj1ctcNBrXQCWBByRgojXyb3bh7mi ). 27/

Studies have even shown long-term impacts to exposure from wildfire smoke, where months after smoke events happen, there are more severe influenza infections the following flu season ( https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412019326935 ). 24/

Guidance for Cleaner Air Spaces during Wildfire Smoke Events ( https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/publications/healthy-living/guidance-cleaner-air-spaces-during-wildfire-smoke-events.html ). 26/

They hypothesize this is because people's immune systems still haven't fully recovered from the damage caused by the smoke.

This isn't limited to just the flu, if your immune system in the lungs is damaged or supressed from wildfire smoke, then even months later you could be more likely to get infections and they could be more severe. 25/

"PM2.5 can pass through the lung–gas–blood barrier and the “gut–microbial–brain” axis to cause systemic oxidative stress and inflammation, or directly enter brain tissue via the olfactory nerve, eventually damaging the cerebral blood vessels and brain nerves."

Even smaller particles also exist in wildfire smoke that could enter the brain within the nerve fibers to the olfactory bulb which connects your nose to your brain for smelling ( https://environmentalhealth.ucdavis.edu/air-pollution/brain-health ). 21/

Any exposure to particulate matter pollution will cause inflammation in the lungs and has a cumulative effect that may compromise immune surveillance of the lung from impaired immune cell function and lymphoid architecture making people more susceptible to infectious disease and cancers of the lung ( https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02073-x ). 23/

More recent studies have shown that PM2.5 is also strongly associated with brain damage such as cerebrovascular damage (stroke) and neurological damage to the brain which can impact cognitive function, dementia, and psychiatric disorders ( https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/molecular-neuroscience/articles/10.3389/fnmol.2022.967174/full ). 20/

Children exposed to 5 days of wildfire smoke have a 2x increased rate of asthma and people over 65 face a 40% increase in rate of strokes and an increased rate of heart attacks.

Anyone who is pregnant is also at higher risk of premature birth and decreased birth weight after wildfire smoke exposure. 22/

Exposure to wildfire smoke can cause damage to the lungs, blood, and heart ( https://woods.stanford.edu/news/health-impacts-wildfire-smoke ).

PM2.5 means particulate matter that is 2.5 microns in size or less and they are small enough to work their way deep into the lungs and bloodstream where they can trigger heart attack, stroke, lung cancer, and asthma. 19/

While there is no safe level of PM2.5, the WHO recommends limiting levels to below 15 ug/m^3 in a 24 hour period to reduce the burden of disease from stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, and both chronic and acute respiratory diseases, including asthma ( https://who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ambient-(outdoor)-air-quality-and-health ). The WHO wants cities to target less than 5 ug/m^3 pollution. 18/