Most recent #CDC dataset, updated yesterday, shows five XFG lineages, reflecting variants broken out by CDC in recent months, together squeezing out patriarch and remaining siblings, cousins & niblings.
Meanwhile, Nimbus 1.8.1 / PQ family, previously shown as in decline relative to XFG dynasty, is now shown as rapidly gaining share.
Note that, in absence of robust data from states, CDC has given up modeling historical estimates, instead giving only shares of reported sequences.
Raj's dashboard, updated two week ago, showed Stratus dynasty diversifying, with Stratus-Eleventy XFG.1.1 as first child, RP, approached sixth share of sequences, while XFG.14 line holds below a tenth.
That said, GISAID data for the two weeks and change at the end of the most recent reporting period was dominated by paltry submissions from Nebraska (146 sequences), Wisconsin (140), Minnesota (128), Colorado (122), New York (91) and Illinois (78).
❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #variants #CovidIsNotOver #dataviz #datavis
![Chart: Estimated and Reported U.S. Covid Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, WHN, D. Focosi, M. Honey, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through Jan 18–Feb 14. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Over two thirds Pirola BA.2.86 dynasty. Stratus XFG family accounts for near two thirds share; XDE for over a quarter.
For 12/21–1/17, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification (per GISAID) not apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
Stratus [purples]:
16% - XFG.2.5.1
9% - XFG.1.1.1 / RP† & other Stratus-Eleventy XFG.1.1
7% - XFG.14.1
4% - XFG.6
29% - other Stratus XFG
Nimbus [reds]:
6% - PQ.17 & XFY
21% - other Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ
Pirola BA.2.86 [green]:
5% - XFZ, KP.3.1.1 / MC, LF.7.9, XFC & LF.7
Stratus-3 [browns]:
2% - XFV
0% - XFG.3.4.1 / QF†
FDA-Vaccine-Target [blues]:
⅒% - NW.1
0% - other FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
Other [grey]:
1% - Other (not specified)
_____
Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ is a scion of left-field Razor-Blade-Throat XDV.
XFZ is a child of left-field WHO-Vaccine-Target scion PG.3.2 and Octoberish recombinant kid XFC.3.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://files.mastodon.social/cache/media_attachments/files/116/069/220/967/645/114/small/3736d99b0c3dab47.jpg)
![Chart: Est. & Reported U.S. Covid Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through 12/21–1/17. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all Omicron B.1.1.529 / BA dynasty. Stratus XFG family accounts for over four fifths share.
For 12/21–1/17, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, reflecting GISAID detail not shown by CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
Stratus [reds]:
53% - XFG.2.5.1† & other Stratus XFG
16% - XFG.14.1
8% - XFG.1.1.1 / RP† & other Stratus-Eleventy XFG.1.1
8% - XFG.6
0% - XFG.5.4.1 / QW
Omicron [green]:
10% - Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ, PQ.17, XFZ, XFY, LF.7, LF.7.9, XFC, XEC & other Omicron B.1.1.529 / BA
Stratus-3 [browns]:
3% - XFV
0% - XFG.3.4.1 / QF†
0% - XFG.3.1.2 / QK
0% - XFG.3.4.6 / RN
LP.8.1.2 / NW [purple]:
0% - NW.1
FDA-Vaccine-Target [blue]:
0% - other FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
Other [grey]:
2% - Other (not specified)
_____
Stratus XFG is a child of April's FLiRT cluster LF.7 and Juneish FDA-Vaccine-Target kid LP.8.1.2 / NW.
XFV is a child of April's FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1 and left-field Stratus-3 grandkid XFG.3.3.1.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://files.mastodon.social/cache/media_attachments/files/116/004/573/430/740/402/small/03fcf889d91dc267.jpg)
![Chart: Estimated and Reported U.S. Covid Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through Dec 21–Jan 17. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Essentially all Omicron B.1.1.529 / BA dynasty. Stratus XFG family accounts for over four fifths share.
For 11/23–12/20, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification (per GISAID) not apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
Stratus [reds]:
53% - XFG.2†, XFG.9† & other Stratus XFG
16% - XFG.14.1
8% - Stratus-Eleventy XFG.1.1
8% - XFG.6
0% - XFG.1
Omicron [green]:
10% - Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ, PQ.17, XFZ, XFY, LF.7, LF.7.9, XFC, XEC & other Omicron B.1.1.529 / BA
Stratus-3 [browns]:
3% - XFV
0% - XFG.3.4.1 / QF†
0% - XFG.3.1.2 / QK
LP.8.1.2 / NW [purple]:
0% - NW.1
FDA-Vaccine-Target [blue]:
0% - other FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
Other [grey]:
2% - Other (not specified)
_____
Stratus XFG is a child of April's FLiRT cluster LF.7 and Juneish FDA-Vaccine-Target kid LP.8.1.2 / NW.
XFV is a child of April's FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1 and left-field Stratus-3 grandkid XFG.3.3.1.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://files.mastodon.social/cache/media_attachments/files/115/948/368/384/933/276/small/cffbc6e9dc20a9d2.jpg)
![Chart: Est. & Reported U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through 12/21–1/17. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Stratus XFG family accounts for over four fifths share.
For 11/23–12/20, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, reflecting GISAID detail not shown by CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
Stratus [reds]:
56% - XFV, XFG.2†, XFG.3.4.1 / QF†, XFG.3†, XFG.9† & other Stratus XFG
16% - XFG.14.1
8% - XFG.6
Stratus-Eleventy [brown]:
8% - Stratus-Eleventy XFG.1.1
Omicron [green]:
8% - Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ, PQ.17, XFY & other Omicron B.1.1.529 / BA
WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 [blues]:
2% - XFZ
⅓% - LF.7.9 & XFC
0% - XEC
⅕% - other LF.7
FDA-Vaccine-Target [purples]:
0% - NW.1
0% - other FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
Other [grey]:
2% - Other (not specified)
_____
Stratus XFG is a child of April's FLiRT cluster LF.7 and Juneish FDA-Vaccine-Target kid LP.8.1.2 / NW.
XFV is a child of April's FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1 and left-field Stratus scion XFG.3.3.1.
† Variants, not broken out by CDC, that represent significant share of recent GISAID sequences.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://files.mastodon.social/cache/media_attachments/files/115/913/906/659/614/776/small/ca07717ee0e09e90.jpg)
![Chart: Est. & Reported U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through 11/23–12/20. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Stratus XFG family accounts for over four fifths share.
For 11/23–12/20, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, reflecting GISAID detail not shown by CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [red]:
61% - XFG.2†, XFG.3.4.1 / QF†, XFG.3†, XFG.9† & other Stratus XFG
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [brown]:
24% - XFG.14.1, XFG.1, XFG.6 & XFG.1.1†
WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 [greens]:
7% - XFZ, XFV & NW.1
0% - FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
JN.1 + FLiRT-LF-7 [blues]:
⅒% - LF.7.9
⅜% - other LF.7
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [purple]:
¼% - XFC
Other [greys]:
5% - XFY & other Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ
¾% - other Omicron B.1.1.529 / BA
1% - Other (not specified)
_____
XFV is a child of April's FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1 and left-field recombinant scion XFG.3.3.1.
XFY is a child of June's Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ and left-field recombinant grandkid XFG.5.1.
XFZ is a child of left-field WHO-Vaccine-Target scion PG.3.2 and Septemberish recombinant kid XFC.3.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://files.mastodon.social/cache/media_attachments/files/115/810/824/710/345/662/small/e18dd31f288ec262.jpg)

![Chart: Est. & Reported U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through 11/23–12/20. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Over nine tenths WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 dynasty. Stratus XFG family accounts for over four fifths share.
For 10/26–11/22, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, reflecting GISAID detail not shown by CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [red]:
61% - XFG.2†, XFG.3†, XFG.3.4.1 / QF†, XFG.4.1† & other Stratus XFG
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [brown]:
24% - XFG.14.1, XFG.1, XFG.6 & XFG.1.1†
WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 [greens]:
7% - XFZ, XFV & NW.1
0% - FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
JN.1 + FLiRT-LF-7 [blues]:
⅒% - LF.7.9
⅜% - other LF.7
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [purples]:
¼% - XFC
0% - other LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD
Other [greys]:
5% - XFY & other Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ
¾% - other Omicron B.1.1.529 / BA
1% - Other (not specified)
_____
XFY is a child of June's Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ and left-field recombinant grandkid XFG.5.1.
XFZ is a child of left-field WHO-Vaccine-Target scion PG.3.2 and Septemberish recombinant kid XFC.3.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://files.mastodon.social/cache/media_attachments/files/115/748/426/422/935/944/small/e59909b4a02ecfd1.jpg)





![Chart: Estimated and Reported U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through Oct 26–Nov 22. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Nearly all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 dynasty. Stratus XFG family accounts for over four fifths share.
For 10/26–11/22, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification (per GISAID) not apparent from CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
XFG [reds]:
69% - XFG.2†, XFG.3†, XFG.3.4.1 / QF†, XFG.4.1† & other Stratus XFG
10% - XFG.14.1
8% - XFG.6, XFG.1.1† & other XFG.1
JN.1.11 [browns]:
9% - XFZ, XFV, NW.1 & FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
0% - other JN.1.11
JN.1 + FLiRT-LF-7 [blues]:
⅛% - LF.7.9
¼% - other LF.7
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [purples]:
⅕% - XFC
0% - other LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD
WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 [green]:
0% - XEC
Other [greys]:
4% - Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ, XFY & XDV.1
⅓% - Other (not specified)
_____
XFC is a child of April's WHO-Vaccine-Target scion LF.7 and Mayish JN.1.11 scion LP.8.1.1 / NY.
XFZ is a child of left-field WHO-Vaccine-Target scion PG.3.2 and Augustish recombinant kid XFC.3.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://files.mastodon.social/cache/media_attachments/files/115/605/018/146/501/021/small/0fd9eb687def5fa0.jpg)

![Chart: Est. & Reported U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others
[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]
Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.
Four bar-style tree-charts, for four-week periods through Oct 26–Nov 22. Legend of last four-week period, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.
Nearly all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 dynasty. Stratus XFG family accounts for over four fifths share.
For 9/28–10/25, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, reflecting GISAID detail not shown by CDC's Nowcast.
Legend:
XFG [reds]:
69% - XFG.2†, XFG.3†, XFG.3.4.1 / QF†, XFG.5.1†, XFG.4.1†, XFG.5.2†, XFG.3.4.3 / QS† & other Stratus XFG
10% - XFG.14.1
8% - XFG.1 & XFG.6
JN.1.11 [browns]:
9% - XFZ, XFV, NW.1 & FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1
0% - other JN.1.11
JN.1 + FLiRT-LF-7 [blues]:
⅛% - LF.7.9
¼% - other LF.7
LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD [purples]:
⅕% - XFC
0% - other LF.7 + NTD-meets-RBD
WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 [green]:
0% - XEC
Other [greys]:
4% - Nimbus NB.1.8.1 / PQ, XFY & XDV.1
⅓% - Other (not specified)
_____
XFC is a child of April's WHO-Vaccine-Target scion LF.7 and Mayish JN.1.11 scion LP.8.1.1 / NY.
XFZ is a child of left-field WHO-Vaccine-Target scion PG.3.2 and Augustish recombinant kid XFC.3.
[Some footnotes omitted, due to too many recombinants.]](https://files.mastodon.social/cache/media_attachments/files/115/593/606/530/127/283/small/2d2928fcb1c3ff88.jpg)