#Variants

sport of sacred spherical cowsbeadsland@hcommons.social
2025-05-27

Since March, LP.8.1 has been dominant. FDA designates same as vaccine target, on very week its share has plateaued.

Data collection continues to be low priority nationally—as exactly zero regions have enough data for CDC to plot.

No new variants broken out by #CDC, although the "razor blade throat" variant, NB.1.8.1, remains significant in GISAID.

Raj's dashboard was last updated yesterday.

#ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

Chart: Est. U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, others

[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]

Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.

Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through 5/11–5/24. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.

For 4/27–5/10, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, reflecting GISAID detail not shown by CDC's Nowcast.

Legend:

JN.1.11 + FLiRT31 [purple]:
73% - LP.8.1.1 / NY† & other FDA-Vaccine-Target LP.8.1

JN.1 + FLiRT-LF [browns]:
10% - XFC
3% - LF.7.7.2
2% - XFG.2†, XFG†, LF.7.9† & other LF.7
1% - LF.7.7.1 & LF.7.2.1 / PC

WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1 [red]:
6% - XEC, LB.1.3.1 / NL, XEC.4, XEC.4.1† & XFJ†

JN.1.11 [greens]:
3% - MC.10.1 & PA.1
¾% - KP.3 & XEQ
⅞% - MC.1, MC.19 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC

JN.1.11 + FLiRT31 [blue]:
¼% - XEK

Other [greys]:
0% - Razor-Blade-Throat NB.1.8.1 / PQ† & other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
0% - Other (not specified)

_____


XEC is a child of FLiRT cluster KS.1.1 and FLuQE cluster KP.3.3.

XEK is a child of FLiRT31 cluster KP.2.3 and recombinant XEC.

XEQ is a child of FLiRT cluster KS.1.1.2 and FLuQE cluster KP.3.

XFC is a child of FLiRT31 cluster LP.8.1.1 and JN.1.16.1 scion LF.7.

XFG is a child of FLiRT31 cluster LP.8.1.2 and JN.1.16.1 scion LF.7.

[Add'l footnotes omitted.]
12sknnews12sknnews
2025-05-26

Two New COVID Variants Detected in India: What You Need to Know

Two New COVID Variants Detected in India: What You Need to Know

12sknnews.com/two-new-covid-va

JNSLCTJNSLCT
2025-05-26

Prof.

Latest Covid variants and outlook for UK summer
There probably will be a Covid summer wave.

christinapagel.substack.com/p/

sport of sacred spherical cowsbeadsland@hcommons.social
2025-05-11

Updated #CDC estimates show we'd pretty much been in a JN.1.11 soup since Dec, until late March, when LP.8.1 took majority.

Data collection continues to be low priority nationally—as exactly zero regions have enough data for CDC to plot.

CDC breaks out recombinant XFC from FLiRT parent LF.7 . (Our dataviz now identifies parentage for each recombinant.) Raj's dashboard was last updated today.

#ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: CDC, Cov-Lineages, NYITCOM, D. Focosi, WHN, others

[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]

Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.

Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through 4/27–5/10. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.

LP.8.1 accounts for over two thirds.

For 4/13–4/26, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, reflecting GISAID detail not shown by CDC's Nowcast.

Legend:

JN.1.11 + FLiRT31 [purple]:
70% - LP.8.1.1 / NY†, LP.8.1.8† & other LP.8.1

JN.1 + FLiRT-LF [browns]:
9% - XFC
3% - LF.7.7.2
2% - XFG† & other LF.7
2% - LF.7.7.1 & LF.7.2.1 / PC

JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
1% - XEC.4
½% - XEQ
6% - other XEC

JN.1.11 [greens]:
3% - MC.10.1 & PA.1
⅓% - KP.3
2% - MC.1, MC.19 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC

JN.1.11 + FLiRT31 [blue]:
⅓% - XEK

Other [greys]:
⅐% - NB.1.8.1†, JN.1.16 & other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
⅒% - Other (not specified)

_____


XEC is a child of FLiRT cluster KS.1.1 and FLuQE cluster KP.3.3.

XEK is a child of FLiRT31 cluster KP.2.3 and recombinant XEC.

XEQ is a child of FLiRT cluster KS.1.1.2 and FLuQE cluster KP.3.

XFC is a child of FLiRT31 cluster LP.8.1.1 and FLiRT cluster LF.7.

XFG is a child of FLiRT31 cluster LP.8.1.2 and FLiRT cluster LF.7.

[Add'l footnotes omitted.]
sport of sacred spherical cowsbeadsland@hcommons.social
2025-04-27

Updated #CDC estimates show we'd pretty much been in a JN.1.11 soup since Dec, until late March, when LP.8.1 took majority.

Data collection continues to be a low priority nationally, as exactly zero regions have enough data for CDC to plot.

Two children of LF.7.7, dot1 and dot2, broken out by CDC, together with PA.1, a grandchild of MC.10.

Raj's dashboard was last updated a week ago today.

#ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others

[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]

Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.

Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through April 13–26. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.

Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. LP.8.1 accounts for over two thirds; JN.1 + FLiRT for near a quarter.

For fortnight of 3/30–4/12, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.

Legend:

LP.8.1 [purple]:
69% - LP.8.1.1 / NY† & other LP.8.1

JN.1 + FLiRT-KS [browns]:
1% - XEC.4
¾% - XEQ
10% - other XEC

JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
6% - LF.7.7.2
4% - LF.7.7.1, LF.7 & LF.7.2.1 / PC
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL

JN.1.11 [greens]:
3% - MC.10.1, MC.28.1 & MC.19
2% - PA.1
½% - KP.3
2% - MC.1 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC

XEK [blue]:
⅜% - XEK

Other [greys]:
⅙% - JN.1.16
⅒% - NB.1† & other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
¼% - Other (not specified)

† Dagger variants are not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.
Jen, Aspiring YoteJenetrix@tech.lgbt
2025-04-18
sport of sacred spherical cowsbeadsland@hcommons.social
2025-04-14

Updated #CDC estimates show we've pretty much been in a JN.1.11 soup since Dec, until late March, when LP.8.1 took majority.

Data collection continues to be a low priority nationally, as exactly zero regions have enough data for CDC to plot.

No new variants broken out, yet CDC seems to have resources to tailor their color key: hcommons.social/@beadsland/114

Raj's dashboard was updated on today.

#ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others

[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]

Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.

Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through Mar 30–Apr 12. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.

Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. LP.8.1 accounts for over three fifths; JN.1 + FLiRT for near a quarter.

For fortnight of 3/16–3/29, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.

Legend:

LP.8.1 [purple]:
64% - LP.8.1.1 / NY† & other LP.8.1

XEC [browns]:
2% - XEC.4
15% - other XEC

JN.1.11 + FLuQE [greens]:
5% - MC.10.1 & MC.19
1% - MC.28.1
2% - XEQ & other KP.3
3% - MC.1 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC

JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
4% - LF.7
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
¾% - LF.7.2.1 / PC

JN.1.11 + FLiRT [blues]:
½% - XEK
0% - KP.2.3

Other [greys]:
⅓% - JN.1.16
⅒% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
0% - Other (not specified)

† Dagger variant is not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.
sport of sacred spherical cowsbeadsland@hcommons.social
2025-04-01

Updated #CDC estimates show we've pretty much been in a JN.1.11 soup since Dec, until late March, when LP.8.1 took majority.

Data collection continues to be a low priority nationally, as only one region (NY/NJ) has enough data for CDC to plot.

No new variants broken out, yet CDC seems to have resources to tailor their color key: hcommons.social/@beadsland/114

Raj's dashboard was updated on Sunday.

#ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others

[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]

Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.

Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through March 16–29. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.

Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. LP.8.1 accounts for well over half; JN.1 + FLiRT for over a quarter.

For fortnight of 3/2–3/15, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.

Legend:

LP.8.1 [purple]:
55% - LP.8.1.1 / NY† & other LP.8.1

XEC [browns]:
21% - XEC.2† & other XEC
2% - XEC.4

JN.1.11 + FLuQE [greens]:
6% - MC.10.1 & MC.19
3% - MC.28.1
2% - XEQ
4% - MC.1 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC
⅘% - other KP.3

JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
4% - LF.7
2% - LB.1.3.1 / NL

JN.1.11 + FLiRT [blues]:
½% - XEK
0% - KP.2.3 & KP.1.1.3 / LP

Other [greys]:
⅖% - JN.1.16
⅙% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
0% - Other (not specified)

† Dagger variants are not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.
sport of sacred spherical cowsbeadsland@hcommons.social
2025-03-14

Second time #CDC has reported estimates for more than two regions at a time since October.

To be clear, national data used for chart above are modeled on regional data collection.

LP.8.1 now estimated at majority in Great Lakes, nearing majority in NY/NJ and Mid-Atlantic.

XEC (incl. XEC.4) still around a quarter share in all three regions.

[For color key, see: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-track]

#ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #WearAMask #BetterMasks

Map: Nowcast Estimates for 3/2/2025 - 3/15/2025 by HHS Region
Source: Centers for Disease Control

Map shows pie charts for three of ten regions, reflecting regional estimated proportions for specimens collected for the most recent biweekly reporting period.

Bold text over Canada portion of map reads: "Nowcast estimates are only available for HHS regions having at least 300 sequences in the two weeks ending 02/15/2025".

Dominant strains by tracked region:

NY/NJ: LP.8.1 (orange) 47%, XEC (clover) 22%, LF.7 (dirty blue) 5%, LB.1.3.1 (fountain blue) 5%.

Mid-Atlantic: LP.8.1 (orange) 42%, XEC (clover) 25%, MC.28.1 (flat blue) 8%, KP.3.1.1 (sea bluish cyan) 5%.

Great Lakes: LP.8.1 (orange) 60%, XEC (clover) 24%, KP.3.1.1 (sea bluish cyan) 4%.

Of ten regions, seven regions are blank.

ALT-text by beadsland at ko-fi.
sport of sacred spherical cowsbeadsland@hcommons.social
2025-03-14

A FLuQE wavelet opened September, cresting as KP.3.1.1 / MC wave into November. FDA's second-guess vaccine target, KP.2, dropped out in December. Updated #CDC estimates indicate we've been in a JN.1.11 soup pretty much since then.

No new variants broken out by CDC, as KP.1.1.3 / LP descendant LP.8.1 approaches majority.

No recent GISAID data—as Raj's dashboard hasn't updated in near a month.

#ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #dataviz #datavis

Chart: Estimated U.S. Variant Proportions by Common Name
Sources: Centers for Disease Control, CoV-Lineages, NYITCOM Research, Daniele Focosi, World Health Network, others

[ beadsland on Ko-fi ]

Reskin of CDC's Variants Nowcast, and any significant variants in GISAID not broken out by CDC.

Five bar-style tree-charts, for fortnights through March 2–15. Legend of last fortnight, organized by subheadings of color-grouped families and convergent clusters. Percentages overlay each color key, reflecting share as of most recent tree-chart.

Essentially all WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1. JN.1.11 accounts for over three fifths; JN.1.11 + FLiRT for near half.

For fortnight of 1/19–2/1, packed bubble charts fill single-variant tiles, indicating diversification of those variants (per GISAID) that wouldn't otherwise be apparent from CDC's Nowcast.

Legend:

LP.8.1 [purple]:
47% - LP.8.1.1 / NY† & other LP.8.1

JN.1 + FLiRT-KS [browns]:
26% - XEC.2†, XEC.8† & other XEC
2% - XEC.4
2% - XEQ
⅒% - other KS.1

JN.1.11 [greens]:
¾% - KP.3
15% - MC.10.1, MC.28.1, MC.19, MC.1 & other KP.3.1.1 / MC

JN.1 + FLiRT [reds]:
4% - LF.7
3% - LB.1.3.1 / NL
0% - LB.1

JN.1.11 + FLiRT [blues]:
½% - XEK
0% - KP.2.3 & KP.1.1.3 / LP

Other [greys]:
½% - JN.1.16
⅐% - other WHO-Vaccine-Target JN.1
⅒% - Other (not specified)

† Dagger variants are not broken out by CDC, yet represent a significant share of recent GISAID sequences.

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