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#ATMIS
Nevertheless, it might have a first result by the integration of Ethiopian troops within the #AU peace mission, formerly #AMISOM, then #ATMIS, now known as #AUSSOM since 1 Jan 2025. A key aspect of the new mission shall be Egyptian oversight however, an uneasy situation for all involved.
As the crisis developed, #Egypt and #Eritrea, major Somali allies since 2022, have doubled down on their support to the country in her spat against a common enemy.
UN approves new #AU force to take on al-Shabab in #Somalia
UN approves new #AU force to take on al-Shabab in #Somalia UN approves new #AU force to take on al-Shabab in #Somalia The United Nations Security Council has approved the establishment of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (#AUSSOM), which will replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (#ATMIS) when its mandate expires on December 31. The new force aims to combat…
https://ethiopianstoday.com/2024/12/28/un-approves-new-au-force-to-take-on-al-shabab-in-somalia/
African countries have overwhelmingly mentioned the #Gaza war, usually out of anticolonial solidarity with #Palestine, or the #Ukraine war, as an example of a renewed cold war and a nuisance for the continent. On the margins, peace in the #DRC and #Sudan have been wished for.
But no single African country has mentioned the conflicts in/between #Ethiopia and #Somalia so far — except for #Kenya, which only boasted its participation in #ATMIS.
#UNGA 79th session, General Debate
#Kenya's president William Ruto has regretted that "the world's most powerful states" are increasingly choosing "unilateralism and militarization", an obvious sting against #Russia.
He underlined his own country's initiatives, ranging from Kenya's participation in #ATMIS (#Somalia) and MSSM #Haiti to the Tumaini initiative meant to bring peace to #SouthSudan.
#Ethiopia and #Somalia edge closer to war
After reports of troops movements near the Somali border, Ethiopian troops have taken control of all airports in Gedo — a region of #Jubaland at the Ethiopian and Kenyan border. The move is intended to prevent Egypt from deploying troops in the region. This comes a day after the Somali representative warned #ATMIS troops against any infringement of his country’s sovereignty, which would be considered “an act of aggression”.
https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/ethiopian-troops-take-control-of-airports-in-somalia
The sharpest focus remains on whether Ethiopian troops will remain on Somali soil beyond the end of #ATMIS in December 2024. A new mission, #AUSSOM , is to replace it and be led by #Egypt, #Ethiopia’s Nilotic rival.
https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/somalia-and-egypt-are-set-to-become-close-allies-44acc820d03a
#Djibouti has already committed forces to the new mission, with #Burundi, #Kenya and #Uganda expected to follow suit. The question is raised whether Ethiopian troops within and out of #ATMIS will remain on Somali soil under these new conditions. Much will depend on #Turkey’s current attempt at mediation in the MoU crisis.
The only upside of this looming conflict is the reinforcement of Djiboutian-Somali solidarity in the face of #Ethiopia, #Somaliland and Al #Shabaab. #Djibouti will be a key player of #Somalia’s post-#ATMIS future, despite its limited size. Elders of the #Gadabuursi clan had first seeked support in Mogadiscio before turning to their immediate neighbour.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (#ATMIS) has handed over the Abdalla Birolle Forward Operating Base (FOB) to the Somali National Armed Forces (SNAF). The military base, previously under the responsibility of ATMIS Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), is the fourth to be transferred as part of the Phase Three drawdown. It is our assessment that as soon as ATMIS fully withdraws, the same things will happen here as in Afghanistan and al-Shabaab will overrun the country.
In the context of the still unresolved conflict with #Ethiopia, neighbours #Djibouti and #Kenya, both contributors to #ATMIS, become key players in #Somalia’s post-ATMIS future. Bilateral agreements are being negotiated with them and several other African states so that their troops remain deployed on Somali soil beyond the end of the #AU mission.
Clan infighting in Central #Somalia has recently resulted in more than 50 dead and 60 wounded. Those same clans now turning on each other had been the main Somali asset in the war against AS in the region.
It also follows a Somali request to slow down a planned #ATMIS withdrawal — that had been requested by Somalia in the first place — and contested reports by VoA of major AS gains in Central Somalia more or less resulting in a return to the statu quo ante of 2022.
The move comes weeks after #Somalia has demanded that Ethiopian troops should leave Somali soil once #ATMIS entirely withdraws. Anxious reactions by the Southwest and #Jubaland have motivated the unilateral retraction of this failed ultimatum.
The increasingly haphazard Somali strategy in facing the threat constituted by the MoU for the past 3 months has not been the only factor emboldening #Ethiopia to proceed with her maneuvers.
Until 1 January and the #Ethiopia-#Somaliland MoU, that country was considered the main ally in the fight against Al #Shabaab (AS). An Ethiopian pledge to contribute more troops was pivotal to #Somalia’s security after #ATMIS was to end in December 2024.
In the current circumstances however, this is merely a show of force.
#Somalia then surprised observers by announcing a rather mild decision in an inflammatory manner, which led many to describe it as yet another “ultimatum”. It had been in fact only the logical consequence of the end of #ATMIS’ mandate and of the obvious lack of a bilateral agreement on #Ethiopia’s continued military intervention from 2025 onward, that Ethiopian troops should leave by December 2024.
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