How Adaptable Are American Workers to AI-Induced Job Displacement?
Sam J. Manning & Tomás Aguirre
(National Bureau of Economic Research)
"We construct an occupation-level adaptive capacity index that measures a set of worker characteristics relevant for navigating job transitions if displaced, covering 356 occupations that represent 95.9% of the U.S. workforce. We find that AI exposure and adaptive capacity are positively correlated: many occupations highly exposed to AI contain workers with relatively strong means to manage a job transition. Of the 37.1 million workers in the top quartile of AI exposure, 26.5 million are in occupations that also have above-median adaptive capacity, leaving them comparatively well-equipped to handle job transitions if displacement occurs. At the same time, 6.1 million workers (4.2% of the workforce in our sample) work in occupations that are both highly exposed and where workers have low expected adaptive capacity. These workers are concentrated in clerical and administrative roles. Importantly, AI exposure reflects potential changes to work tasks, not inevitable displacement; only some of the changes brought on by AI will result in job loss. By distinguishing between highly exposed workers with relatively strong means to adjust and those with limited adaptive capacity, our analysis shows that exposure measures alone can obscure both areas of resilience to technological change and concentrated pockets of elevated vulnerability if displacement were to occur."
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34705
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