Autumn Budget 2025: What more than 100 possible tax changes could mean for South West Wales
The Chancellor’s Autumn Budget, set for Wednesday 26 November 2025, is being described as one of the most uncertain in years. Treasury insiders say more than 100 possible tax changes are under consideration as Rachel Reeves looks to plug a £30–40bn fiscal hole.
For households and businesses in South West Wales, already facing the highest unemployment rate in a decade, the stakes could not be higher.
Swansea MP at the heart of Budget planning
One of the key figures shaping the Budget is Torsten Bell, the newly elected Labour MP for Swansea West. Bell, a former chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank, has been given additional responsibility for economic policy by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
Described as one of Labour’s “sharpest minds” on economic policy, Bell is advising on and preparing the Autumn Budget. His background in economic analysis means Swansea now has a direct link to the decisions being made in Whitehall.
The Resolution Foundation has previously suggested cutting National Insurance by 2p and raising income tax by the same amount – a move that would broaden the tax base to include pensioners, landlords and the self‑employed. If adopted, this would have a significant impact in South West Wales, where self‑employment rates are high and many older residents already pay income tax.
Income tax and National Insurance
Tax experts at EY (Ernst & Young) say the Chancellor is likely to look at the “big three” taxes – income tax, National Insurance and VAT – because together they make up two‑thirds of the UK’s tax take. Even a modest rise could raise billions.
One option being discussed is a 2p rise in the basic rate of income tax, which EY estimate could raise nearly £14bn nationally. For households in Swansea Bay already facing rising costs, this would mean less disposable income at a time when unemployment is climbing.
Energy bills and fuel duty
Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts MP, speaking after a meeting with Welsh Secretary Jo Stevens on 11 November, argued that the Budget should focus on tackling the cost of living. She pointed to fuel poverty affecting a quarter of Welsh households, and called for £4bn in HS2 funding for Wales as well as action on standing charges, which are among the highest in the UK.
Fuel duty is another area of speculation. The AA’s president Edmund King has warned that electric vehicle drivers could face a new “pay‑per‑mile” tax from 2028, with Treasury estimates suggesting it could cost the average EV driver £250 a year. For commuters travelling between Swansea, Llanelli and Neath, this could mean higher transport costs.
Small businesses and rural communities
Changes to Business Property Relief (BPR) and Agricultural Property Relief (APR) are expected as part of inheritance tax reforms. These reliefs currently reduce the tax burden when passing on family businesses or farms. If they are cut, family‑run firms and farms in Carmarthenshire and Neath Port Talbot could face higher inheritance tax bills, making it harder to keep businesses in local hands. Plaid Cymru has warned this could put nearly 10,000 Welsh jobs at risk.
Lowering the VAT registration threshold is also being discussed. RSM, another leading tax advisory firm, say this could bring more small businesses into the VAT system sooner. For micro‑businesses in hospitality, retail and services – sectors that dominate South West Wales – this could mean more paperwork and higher costs.
Savings and pensions
The Financial Times has reported that the Treasury is considering cutting the cash ISA allowance from £20,000 to around £12,000. The move is designed to push savers towards stocks and shares ISAs, but for cautious savers in South West Wales who rely on cash ISAs to shelter savings from tax, this would reduce options and potentially make mortgages more expensive, as building societies rely on ISA deposits for lending.
Inheritance tax allowances have already been frozen until 2030. Experts at Saltus and BDO warn that further changes – such as reducing taper relief on gifts – could affect families passing on homes or farms, a common issue in rural Wales.
What happens next
The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will deliver her Budget on 26 November at around 12.30pm, immediately after Prime Minister’s Questions. The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its forecasts alongside the speech.
For households and businesses in South West Wales, the key questions are simple:
- Will income tax rise, and if so, by how much?
- Will energy bills and fuel duty be addressed?
- Will small businesses face new costs from VAT or property relief changes?
- Will pensions and inheritance rules change in ways that affect families locally?
With unemployment already climbing, the stakes are high. And with Swansea West MP Torsten Bell now at the heart of Budget planning, South West Wales has a direct voice in shaping the decisions that could define its economic future.
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