Dayton finished their season on Saturday with a loss to Arizona in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. For the standards of the Dayton basketball program, making the round of 32 was an accomplishment and brought back the momentum that was lost from the 2020 season incompletion and missing the NCAA tournament from 2021-2023.
While the program now has made its way back into the national spotlight during the 2024 season, Dayton has some questions as it heads into the offseason.
Let’s take a look:
1. What is the future of DaRon Holmes II?
There’s no doubt that DaRon Holmes II was one of the best players in the country this season. He made a name for himself throughout the season and again in the NCAA Tournament, scoring 18 points and 9 rebounds in the win over Nevada, and following it up with an impressive 23 points and 11 rebounds in the loss to Arizona.
Holmes still has one year left of eligibility, but anyone who follows college basketball closely knows that players like Holmes usually will go to the NBA Draft as soon as possible. However, Holmes could have declared for the draft after the 2023 season, but he chose to come back to college and improve his game and his draft stock. He could have transferred to a bigger program and taken a giant pay increase from a big school NIL collective (rumors of Duke throwing him a giant deal to come play for the Blue Devils surfaced), but Holmes chose to stay at Dayton.
What we do know is that while Holmes can live his dream as being drafted to a team in the NBA, we have no idea where that draft pick would be. Is he a top 15 pick or a late first rounder? Is he an early second rounder? Or does he follow former teammate Toumani Camara and be taken late in the second round, betting on himself to make an NBA roster anyway. Camara is already a starter for the Portland Trail Blazers, even as a second round pick last summer. Betting on yourself is not a bad plan either.
Now, what are the reasons for DaRon to stay at Dayton? Well, if he feels that where he is drafted does not matter and the compensation from endorsements and the Dayton NIL collective is good enough, the same, or better than the rookie compensation where he would be possibly drafted, then he could elect to stay for his final year at Dayton. Another reason he could stay is that he and his family’s relationship with Anthony Grant is very strong by all accounts. His family has stated that loyalty is very important to them, and the relationship between Holmes and Grant could be something that trumps any NBA compensation or NBA dreams at the moment. Holmes could really value finishing his college degree from Dayton and living out his final year as a Flyer. Every player is different, and you just don’t know what is going on with that certain player. Most believe that he will declare for the NBA draft, but you just never know.
We should know in the coming days what Holmes’ final decision will be.
2. What about the futures of anyone else?
Koby Brea made a huge name for himself along with DaRon Holmes. Brea was the top three-point shooter in the country this season, shooting 100-201 from three on the season. That is wildly impressive from the junior. He was also the ultimate team player, being that good and also accepting his role as the 6th man on this team. Dayton doesn’t get as far as it does without Brea’s role and efforts this season.
What happens with him? Well, he has already stated in an interview that there is a “high possibility” that he returns for his senior season. Good news for Flyer fans. The bad news is that his skill set as a sniper three point shooter in the age of analytics is one of the top skills that teams and scouts look for. There have already been rumblings of teams wanting to throw a big NIL deal to him to come play for them. That could very well happen, but a few things fans need to keep in mind: (1) Brea has to be in the transfer portal before teams can make offers, (2) Dayton can offer big money from their NIL and endorsements from businesses in the area as well (more on that in a moment), and (3) He has a role on this team and a great relationship with Anthony Grant, who recruited him out of high school. People often downplay the importance of coach/player relationships, which is important to some players and what makes Anthony Grant a good coach. We should see soon what Brea elects to do.
As for other players, we already know that Kobe Elvis elected to go through with senior night, but he still has a year of eligibility left. Does he elect to turn pro and go overseas, enter the transfer portal, or come back for one more season?
We know that one player has already entered the transfer portal, and that is Zimi Nwokeji. According to Anthony Grant, Zimi was suspended from team activities near the end of the season and later left the team to enter the transfer portal before the NCAA Tournament. This results in one scholarship being open right now.
What about the two redshirt freshmen? Jaiun Simon and Marvel Allen were highly touted freshman signings last offseason, but they both redshirted this season. We have seen Grant do this in the past, notably with Obi Toppin (look how that turned out), but that was before the NIL era and the boom of the transfer portal era. Many Flyer fans were confused and concerned that Simon and Allen would transfer due to being redshirted, but both are still with the team and stayed on the team throughout the entire season. It feels like if they did not buy into that plan, they would have left already, but they did not. Hopefully we can look forward to Simon and Allen playing in a Flyer uniform next season.
Finally, not mentioning any other player would not be accurate. Any one of these players this season could have plans to leave for a better opportunity, whether it be for more playing time, more NIL compensation, or just a change of scenery. Anything could happen and it should not be surprising to anyone if multiple players decide to leave. It is the age of the player’s preference, and fans should expect the unexpected.
3. What is the situation with the Dayton NIL collective?
It was reported this season that Dayton’s roster has a $1 million compensation total among the roster, with DaRon Holmes understandably getting the most at around $650,000, but that does leave other players with a good chunk of change as well. Being the only big name team in the city of Dayton has its dividends too, with many players getting advertisement and endorsement deals from car dealerships, restaurants, and other businesses. There is no real competition from the Dayton Dragons (the Cincinnati Reds single-A baseball team) or even from Wright State basketball. Dayton is the only hot ticket in town, and players have really taken advantage of gaining compensation from businesses in Dayton and the surrounding area.
While other programs can offer big money, Dayton can as well. Dayton operates as a bigger program than most outsiders would think, being a team in the Atlantic 10. The NIL collective is getting stronger, especially with the team being in the AP Top 25 for the majority of the season and earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, and even more-so now with the win in the first round over Nevada. When the team performs well, the wallets open up. Don’t be shocked if the Dayton collective can match an offer from some of these Power 6 schools.
With the landscape of NIL in college athletics changing all the time, the rules for how programs and collectives can operate together have changed. Programs can now talk directly with players on potential compensation amounts. This was not the case before. Players are starting to have “NIL agents” and are pinning programs against each other. This will be the first offseason where we will see the effects of this new rule. It will be interesting to see how Dayton is affected.
4. What does the non-conference schedule look like for next season?
A tough, quality non-conference schedule and winning enough quality games in said schedule is one of the biggest reasons Dayton got an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. However, Dayton will have many holes to fill this offseason in the schedule.
We already know that Dayton will be one of the eight teams in the Maui Invitational, which is the marquee event for in-season tournaments on ESPN. Dayton will get three really good opponents at that event. Maybe a free trip to Maui is enticing to keep Holmes for one final year? (joking).
The good non-conference games we know for certain is that Northwestern will be making a return trip to UD Arena next season, and hopefully the UNLV game that was canceled this season will most likely be made up next season at UD Arena.
The bad news is the SMU series ended with the game this year in Dallas and the neutral site game against Cincinnati was a one-time deal. There are no good true road games scheduled so far for next season.
Dayton is going to really have to dig deep to schedule some more quality non-conference opponents in order to get back to the tournament next season. The worry is that as a mid-major, Dayton will not get any quality teams to play outside of Maui due to Power 6 conferences not wanting to give Dayton an advantage over their conference’s teams in receiving an at-large bid to the dance. Hopefully that is not the case.
Here are some small questions to put in the back of your mind as well:
1. What about the future of Anthony Grant?
Last offseason, it was reported in circles that Anthony Grant was mulling retirement. Later on, those rumors were put to rest when it was reported that Grant wants to come back to Dayton to try and get his alma mater back to the NCAA Tournament. It was clearly the overall goal of the team this year to get to the NCAA Tournament and win. Mission accomplished. Now that has happened, does Grant ride off into the sunset?
My instinct is no, but with retirement rumors last offseason, you just never know, especially with how close to the chest Grant keeps his personal life. My thought is because of the season he just had and with the players he potentially has coming back to Dayton, he would want to come back too. He has a great job, he is safe, and he got many of the fans back on his side for the job he did this season.
2. What about conference realignment?
I mentioned earlier how Dayton operates like a bigger program than most outside fans would think, especially for being a school in the Atlantic 10. Dayton is longing for a spot in another conference, and their top choice is the Big East. Dayton has the profile of a Big East basketball program being a private, catholic, and basketball-centric school. Dayton also has the facilities and budget of a Big East program. Dayton has also shown success against Big East teams with a record of 3-1 against their teams since the new Big East began in 2014 with wins over Providence, Butler, and St. John’s, putting the hypothetical to rest that Dayton would not compete well in the Big East. Their success this season could also be enough good exposure to convince the Big East that Dayton would be a good addition.
However, Dayton’s location of not being in a major populated city as well as being close to the Xavier media market in Cincinnati is not an attractive proposition for the Big East. Along with that, this season and the 2020 season being the only recent successful seasons for Dayton makes them a questionable addition to the third best conference in the country. Finally, the Big East has stated that they like having 11 teams for their balanced, round robin schedule, and they feel that there are no other teams that they would want right now other than Gonzaga.
The reason I bring this up is because the Big East and FOX have been in negotiations for a new media deal since this past winter. The current media deal with FOX ends in 2025, which is why the two parties are having conversations one year out from the expiration date. The landscape of college athletics has drastically changed over the last 12 months. Mega conferences are forming in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12, guided by college football, but those conferences have dominated in terms of getting multiple teams into the NCAA Tournament. The Big East was notably left with a disappointing three teams in this year’s NCAA Tournament, although they were all top three seeds, including the number one overall seed in Connecticut. For a conference like the Big East, that is not good enough. Could the Big East see this as a clue to start adding more teams in order to get more bids, opening the door for a team like Dayton to enter the conference? Could FOX see how conferences like the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12 are adding teams and the Big East needs to follow suit? Media and exposure are the factors that matter the most, and these networks will do whatever it takes to maximize profits.
Things change quickly in college athletics. This summer could see a big shift yet again in conference realignment. Dayton is obviously looking to get out of the Atlantic 10 as soon as possible. Could the new media deal and the lack of bids for the Big East finally be Dayton’s ticket in?
This will be yet another interesting offseason for the Dayton Flyers. With college basketball drastically changing, fans should once again expect the unexpected. Anything could happen.
https://www.a10talk.com/2024/03/questions-for-dayton-in-the-offseason/
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