+39% in a week 📈 Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28338/ #prediction #Metaculus

If you like estimates of which #technology R&D approaches are likely to succeed, or interested in where #AI is headed, you might enjoy this Metaculus question. Open for comment now & prediction in 2 days. Resolves in Dec.

"Will conventional pre-#LLM #GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & #Reasoning Corpus (#ARC) competition?"

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28655/will-gofai-be-a-part-of-the-arc-prize-winner/#comment-194423

#Metaculus is a nonmonetary (#karma-based) #PredictionMarket.

-21% in a day 📉 Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26962/ #prediction #Metaculus

-22% in a week 📉 Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28002/ #prediction #Metaculus

-25% in a day 📉 Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26962/ #prediction #Metaculus

-30% in a week 📉 Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20775/ #prediction #Metaculus

-30% in a week 📉 Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21306/ #prediction #Metaculus

-39% in an hour 📉 Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27440/ #prediction #Metaculus

-30% in a week 📉 Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20775/ #prediction #Metaculus

-24% in an hour 📉 Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27898/ #prediction #Metaculus

-24% in a week 📉 Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20776/ #prediction #Metaculus

+28% in a week 📈 Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26962/ #prediction #Metaculus

-54% in a week 📉 Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25795/ #prediction #Metaculus

+69% in a day 📈 Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26524/ #prediction #Metaculus

+24% in a week 📈 Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25795/ #prediction #Metaculus

+26% in a week 📈 Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26415/ #prediction #Metaculus

-41% in a week 📉 Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/ #prediction #Metaculus

-92% in a week 📉 In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16787/ #prediction #Metaculus

+79% in a week 📈 Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11704/ #prediction #Metaculus

+74% in a week 📈 Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20419/ #prediction #Metaculus