#prediction

☮ ♥ ♬ 🧑‍💻peterrenshaw@ioc.exchange
2026-02-14

“Despite all the ambiguity, #PredictionMarkets’ biggest backers—Silicon Valley venture #capitalists—remain undeterred. It used to be that the medium was the message. In #SiliconValley, the line has been updated: “The #markets are the message,” says one venture communications executive.

That gospel has set off a frenzy. “Since the election, so many people have started building prediction markets,” says Arad, an #investor based in Portugal. Some of these people are founders whose “products didn’t catch on, and so they pivoted to #prediction. It’s like dozens and dozens and dozens. Like, really. A lot. And it’s still happening.” Arad, too, has caught the bug: Earlier this year he left his job as a #VentureCapitalist to start his own prediction market called Lightcone Labs.

According to #prototypes I’ve seen and conversations I’ve had with dozens of traders and #founders, the future of these #markets looks something like this: Every news story will come with a Trade button beside it.”

<vanityfair.com/news/story/pred> (paywall) / <archive.md/b5S1T>

CHELSEA MANtap dan DAbeStmandastodon@mstdn.social
2026-02-13

RE: mastodon.social/@racunbrigitta

Had I been the creative of that #80 show, I would have still given NZ the chance. And in the upcoming Spekta show, the theme is still 1000% Indonesian songs but make it random 😎. Perhaps last week was NZ's debut in which nobody knew she was there 🙃🫠

Using the same tactic from last week, in short. hopefully there will be a slight increase in its viewership 🤏 still out from the Top 50 though anyway #prediction ✨️

Nanti mingdepnya lagi gue berlakuin tuh tema2. Dangdut, edm, soundtrack dll dsb dst

2026-02-13

Oh, the real history of #prediction markets.

It’s pentagon. The institution that doesn’t pass audits for trillions, but hey, it’s normal.

instagram.com/reel/DUqX9wgFCRj

Dr Mircea Zloteanu ❄️☃️🎄mzloteanu
2026-02-12

#484 Prediction Interval for a New Response

Thoughts: I think often researchers want to report a PI instead of a CI, at least based on what they claim in the discussion.

online.stat.psu.edu/stat501/le

2026-02-12

> An uncomfortable fact about humans is that we have a tendency to blindly follow the structures set out for us. If Polymarket has a bet on whether a piece of misinformation will get more popular, and people are invested in that, more people have a reason to spread the misinformation. Then society will suffer.

inb4 political assassinations because the odds on some random election somewhere are just too good

etymology.substack.com/p/the-f

#PredictionMarkets #Prediction #Polymarket #Society

Jon McBrine | YA Sci-Fi Authorjon_mcbrine_author
2026-02-10

AISatoshi (@AiXsatoshi)

AI로 인해 대중을 덮던 무지의 베일과 할루시네이션(서사)이 사라지고, 모든 것이 예측 가능한 계산으로 대체된다는 전망을 제기합니다. 이 변화 속에서 정치의 역할이 어떻게 변할지에 대한 근본적 질문을 던지고 있습니다.

x.com/AiXsatoshi/status/202100

#ai #hallucination #prediction #politics

gokayburucgokayburuc
2026-02-09

AI predictions:

Social media will soon transform into a place where only artificial intelligence creates content and other artificial intelligences analyze that content.Nobody will watch the video.No one will bother to write.Nobody will bother to read.This will be the end of the internet age.

In a world where everything is artificial, those who remain organic will win.

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