Lmst

Are you seriously risk adverse on Crypto currencies? Prove it - Bet on it! :-)

WeBull launches prediction market for Bitcoin and Ethereum - aka users can bet on the anticipated moves of crypto prices in a over/under prediction style.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/webull-launches-kalshis-hourly-crypto-markets-on-investing-platform-302476775.html #Crypto #CryptoCurrency #BitCoin #Ethereum #Prediction #PredictionMarket #Webull

A startup boosted engagement & stability with a Probo clone, achieving:

✅ 10x user retention
✅ 99.9% uptime
✅ Revenue growth from subs, ads & in-app purchases

Upgrade with next-gen prediction tools!
👉 https://www.malgotechnologies.com/probo-clone-script

#ProboClone #Malgo #PredictionMarket #UserEngagement #TechInnovation #PlatformGrowth #RevenueBoost

This is a fun #predictionmarket 🤭 https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-the-nintendo-switch-2-cost-mor

i try to avoid giving oxygen to the crypto prediction markets like #Kalshi *but* i thought it was heartening that those markets currently put the odds of #ElonMusk losing the #Wisconsin judicial race he's pouring tens of millions of dollars into at 86%.

This is easily the most important election in the US for quite a long time to come and it looks like MAGA is going to go down in flames.
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwiscotus/wi-state-supreme-court

#SusanCrawford #BradSchimel #TeslaTakedown #Tesla #PredictionMarket #USpol #MAGA #Trump #election

chart showing susan crawford favored over brad schimel by 86/16

A #predictionMarket on chances of the well-known (currently) e2e messaging apps revealing a user message to the US government is trading at...

Signal 11%

Apple iMessage 34%

Meta WhatsApp 57%

https://manifold.markets/DonMarti7bd2/will-meta-provide-the-content-of-a

🔥 Polymarket betting market heats up after Trump's announcement on crypto strategic reserves.

- The probability of Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days rose from 10% to 20%, with $8M in bets, deadline April 29, 2025.

- Odds of the US setting up a national Bitcoin reserve by 2025 soared from 41% to 65%, with $1M in bets, deadline December 31, 2025.
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #Trump #Polymarket #PredictionMarket

New account, so new #introduction. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as
- a #SphinxDoc extension that embed #Fediverse comments on your page
- a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
- a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
- a #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
- bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive) See here for more on them!

I speak English fluently, Spanish haltingly, and am trying to learn Chinese

#queer #Chicago

Prediction market company Kalshi is adding Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor.

Kalshi became prominent before the 2024 election after a court victory over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) paved the way for legal election betting in the U.S.

#DonaldTrumpJr #DonJr #Kalashi #PredictionMarket

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/13/kalshi-names-donald-trump-jr-as-strategic-advisor-to-prediction-market-firm.html

Oh dang, my #introduction post is waaay out of date now. Let's do it again!

I have a #MastersDegree in #ComputerScience and #ComputerEngineering. I went to #NMU for undergrad and #MSU for my graduate degree. I currently work at #UChicago for the #TMWCenter, which focuses on helping young children acquire language (and therefore other learning skills) faster.

In my spare time, I develop #OpenSourceSoftware such as

a library to talk to #ManifoldMarkets from native #Python
a #PredictionMarket manager using the above
a #transpiler from a subset of Python to #OpenStreetMaps's #OverpassQL
bug fixes to many other projects, including #mypy, #base58, #attrs, #CPython, & more

I spend a fair bit of my time these days on #MathResearch, specifically into the #ThueMorse Sequence and its extensions.

I'm also a hobbyist editor on OpenStreetMap.

#Demisexual, #transfem, and happily engaged to my #enby sweetheart.

We have two cats: #OpheTheLoaf and #MayalaranTheCat (yes, from #StormlightArchive)

#queer #Chicago

Two cats are by a sliding glass window. The one towards the top of the frame (named Ophelia) is laying on a heat pad and staring at the second cat. The second cat (named Maya) is towards the bottom of the frame. She is sat on the entry rug with her body poked between the blinds on the window, so that she can look outside.

There are two cats in frame, near a very small cat tower. On top of the tower, Ophelia is laying down. Below, in a meercat-like pose, is Maya. She is trying to get a better view of the other cat. They didn't know each other very well at this time.

A gray cat, Maya, is laying on the couch. She is curled up such that her belly and paws are all exposed, though her tail is tucked near her feet. She looks peacefully asleep

A gray/gray-orange cat is laying on a white blanket. Her name is Ophelia, and she has one eye half open, which is a brilliant green-orange. She is very relaxed. You get the faint impression of a person's legs underneath the blanket

It is something, that you probably knew already. Or it will even make you angry. It is kind of bad subject, you may say. I may be mistaken, because i don't know much of US politics.I am Russian leftist. But when i see some parallels to Russia - I write it here. But nevertheless, I take this risk and write about it – because ignorance is one of the things that bring us all into today mess.
A little post about some cases of recent use of predictions market to influence politics.
It was quite a long time ago – around 2013 – when crypto-anarchists created first assassination-prediction market. The idea was simple – they put a several persons to hit with price on bitcoins on them, and anyone could guess a date, when a person will die. If you guess correctly – then you can claim a price. There were such targets as Obama and as you may guess no one successfully predicted anything, site was just closed and all money and bets stolen by its creators. It stayed online for several years and one may say that it was a complete failure, but in fact it proved a very important thing. Uncertainty and predictions is a good way to avoid legal issues. Our group also learnt that lesson, by the way - but anyway – let’s move to another important case.
In Russia 2018 there was president election. As you may know – Putin is always the winner, main intrigue is who dares to run against him. And Russian betting site 1xbet were making bets on whether there will be a woman among Putin’s opponents. There was a problem – one need to gather 100 000 signatures to become a candidate, it is not an easy task. At some point, coefficients were completely overrun for “yes” and one of Putin’s relatives Kseniya Sobchak becomes his fake opponent. Most important fact for us – is that a lot of the people who make these bets for “woman in Putin’s opponents” put their signature for Sobchak as a president candidate. It was a little part of her PR campaign so to say. There is no much uncertainty in Russian politics in terms of elections, as you know. But this case is a good opportunity to understand some behavior patterns, that can work in other countries.
This tiny fact holds an important lesson – for a middle apolitical person – making bet for some political event is a guarantee that he participate in this event and try to do everything to get money from his bet.
And now combine this two cases and we get Peter (monopoly is a great thing) Tiel Polymarket and his influence to 2024 US election. So, what has happened? – our billionaire right-wing “friend” Tiel, make his site to create bets on political events. Then create a big event – stakes on "who would win president election in 2024 USA?". Sounds legit, right? Then pump a couple 10 of millions into Trumps victory, overrunning coefficients dramatically and creating a trend towards Trump victory on his site. And then – a lot of people, who made bets for Harris and watched trends there start hedging their risks or withdrawing their bets for Harris and making bets on Trump because of this. And, as you may know from our previous case – if an apolitical “middle” person make a bet on some political event, where he can participate – it is a guarantee that he will participate and make everything to get the money. It is a dumb, rude bribe to all “middle” voters, that is just hidden a little bit with uncertainty of predictions.
The fact, that USA government and society just swallow this thing and no one even rise an alarm is really strange for me. Maybe i just don't understand something - if so i am sorry. But from my perspective - You have a working machine to bribe voters and no one is doing anything about it. It is not that smart or even difficult – it is on a plain sight. You should just understand, that people are greedy and in order to form a strong left-leaning believe one has to put a lot of effort into studying revolutionary theory. Most people won’t do that.
Markets are ruled by trends, and trends follow money. One who can just bought out all the assets can create a trend and a bubble from nothing. All other participants in the market will have to follow the trend if they want to win the money. As Tiel said it – make bets on your political believes… I will add an ending to his quote – “if only you have one, because otherwise you will follow the trend, that billionaires like Peter Tiel create, if you want your money. This money is a bait that you get now, but pay for with your freedom in the future.”
#leftism #anarchism #USA #elections #Trump #progressive #PeterTiel #polymarket #prediction #predictionmarket #politics #democracy #Harris #vote #voters

As the Terminally Ill Adults bill has passed first reading and will be debated later this month, I ask: "will it become law"?

Play-money predictions here: https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-the-terminally-ill-adults-end#N6yRpdOI0zds

#ukpolitics #predictionmarket #assisteddying

For now, we keep building:
- keeping our security up-to-date
- logging in with gmail, facebook, etc.
- market leaderboard
- improved personal profile and account portfolio
- searching questions
- tagging and filtering

#forecasting #foss #predictionmarket

Don't use #polymarket. This #prediction #market website begins to mine #cryptocurrencies in your browser when a window or tab with a polymarket address is not in use for a while.

They #steal your energy and computing resources.

#predictionmarket #gamble #gambling #money

With two weeks to go, my budget prediction market has attracted 50+ outcomes.

Things that seem likely: reform to non-dom status, CGT increase, income tax freeze and inheritance tax on exempt categories.

Things that seem unlikely: wealth tax, NI / PAYE increase, VAT increase.

Disagree? Bet now! It's only play money. https://manifold.markets/Noit/what-will-be-true-of-the-ukgov-octo

#budget #ukpolitics #ManifoldMarket #predictionmarket

If Polymarket forecasts are so accurate, why are only 12% of wallets profitable?

According to recent data, only 12.7% of wallets on Polymarket are in profit. That raises a question—how can a platform known for accurate predictions have so few winners?

Looking deeper into the numbers, just 2,138 users managed to earn more than $1,000, while the majority walked away with less than $100 in profits.
https://www.tumblr.com/vladimirokhotnikov/764023146068295680/if-polymarket-forecasts-are-so-accurate-why-are?source=share
#BettingStrategies #Polymarket #CryptoBets #PredictionMarket

If you like estimates of which #technology R&D approaches are likely to succeed, or interested in where #AI is headed, you might enjoy this Metaculus question. Open for comment now & prediction in 2 days. Resolves in Dec.

"Will conventional pre-#LLM #GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & #Reasoning Corpus (#ARC) competition?"

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28655/will-gofai-be-a-part-of-the-arc-prize-winner/#comment-194423

#Metaculus is a nonmonetary (#karma-based) #PredictionMarket.

The worst social network is currently ablaze with nonsense about Keir Starmer having a super-injunction preventing UK media from reporting on some unspecified bad behaviour. So I set up a prediction market to try and gauge whether I'm right and it's conspiracy nonsense, or if I'm just blinded by my bubble. Bet now!

https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-a-superinjunction-relating-to

#ukpolitics #predictionmarket #news #ManifoldMarket

Can you guess what will be in the next UK budget? I've started a play-money #predictionmarket if you want to guess along. https://manifold.markets/Noit/what-will-be-true-of-the-ukgov-octo?r=Tm9pdA

#ukpolitics #uk #economics #ManifoldMarket

I’ve set up a little play money betting on what #Pokémon will win Worlds VGC this weekend if you think you can guess.

https://manifold.markets/Noit/which-pokemon-will-win-worlds-vgc-m?r=Tm9pdA

#pokemon #vgc #predictions #predictionmarket #ManifoldMarket