My fellow Americans may not know that there have been racist riots in Northern Ireland the past few nights, only the military hasn't been deployed
Nor were they deployed during the racist riots in England last year
A cynical take would be anti-immigrant violence is fine, pro-immigrant violence is bad. But I think democracy vs fascism is a more apt frame
Don't let #MAGA gaslight you that this is a normal response to largely peaceful protests
“Mike Nesbitt is enforcing the highest level of performance accountability after a leaked review laid bare bullying accusations within the regional cardiac surgery unit.”
#NIPol
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx271dz48g1o
ESRI have published a report about demographic differences between the Republic of Ireland, and Northern Ireland.
They are clear that this is not a like-with-like comparison.
We are after all talking about a state in the EU, with it's own financial and business capital, being compared to a region which is run by the UK, but on the island of Ireland, and only in partial control of policy.
How much do you think Official Ireland media outlets have absorbed this point?
NI OPINION POLL
Headline Assembly voting intention. Poll by #LucidTalk:
Sinn Fein: 29% (-1)
Democratic Unionist Party: 19% (+1)
Alliance Party: 13% (-2)
Traditional Unionist Voice: 11% (+2)
SDLP: 10% (+2)
Ulster Unionist Party: 10% (-2)
Green Party: 2% (=)
PBP: 2% (+1)
Aontú: 1% (-1)
Sinn Fein lead of 10 points.
Conducted 1-4 November 2024. Changes with 16-19 August 2024
#ukpolitics #ukpol #nipol #NorthernIreland #polling #SinnFein #DUP #AllianceParty #UUP #SDLP #TUV #GreenParty #GE2024
NORTH ANTRIM CONSTITUENCY RESULT
TUV: 28.3% (new)
DUP: 27.2% (-23.6)
Sinn Fein: 18.7% (+7.4)
Alliance: 10.9% (-3.4)
UUP: 9.5% (-7.4)
SDLP: 4.0% (-1.9)
Aontú: 1.1% (new)
Turnout: 55% (-2.0)
TUV GAIN from DUP.
Changes with 2019 general election notionals.
This was Ian Paisley's seat.
NORTHERN IRELAND ELECTION RESULTS
With all seats declared (seats : voteshare):
🇮🇪 Sinn Fein: 7 (=) : 27.0% (+4.2)
🇬🇧 DUP: 5 (-3) : 22.1% (-8.5)
🟤 SDLP: 2 (=) : 11.1% (-3.8)
🤝 Alliance: 1 (=) : 15% (-1.8)
🟣 UUP: 1 (+1) : 12.2% (+0.5)
⭕ TUV: 1 (+1) : 6.2% (new)
⚫ Independents: 1 (+1) : 3.0% (+2.8)
Changes with 2019 general election result.
#ukpol #ukpolitics #ge2024 #electionresults #nipol #northernireland
SOUTH ANTRIM CONSTITUENCY RESULT
UUP: 38.0% (+8.9)
DUP: 20.5% (-15.7)
Sinn Fein: 18.7% (+7.3)
Alliance: 10.7% (-7.7)
TUV: 6.3% (new)
SDLP: 3.7% (-1.3)
Greens: 1.3% (new)
Turnout: 56% (-3.9)
UUP GAIN from DUP.
Changes with 2019 general election notionals.
NORTH DOWN CONSTITUENCY RESULT
Independent (Easton): 48.3% (new)
Alliance: 31.4% (-13.5)
UUP: 15.6% (+3.7)
Greens: 2.9% (new)
SDLP: 1.5% (new)
Turnout: 59% (-2.1)
Independent GAIN from Alliance.
Changes with 2019 general election notionals.
BELFAST EAST CONSTITUENCY RESULT
DUP: 46.6% (-1.8)
Alliance: 40.1% (-1.3)
TUV: 4.5% (new)
UUP: 4.3% (-1.4)
Greens: 2.5% (new)
SDLP: 1.4% (-2.9)
Turnout: 59% (-5.8)
DUP HOLD.
Changes with 2019 general election notionals.
LAGAN VALLEY CONSTITUENCY RESULT
Alliance: 37.9% (+10.8)
DUP: 31.9% (-11.5)
UUP: 22.7% (+4.2)
TUV: 4.5% (new)
SDLP: 2.1% (-2.0)
Turnout: 57% (-9.4)
Alliance GAIN from DUP.
Changes with 2019 general election notionals.
NORTHERN IRELAND GOSSIP
Alliance and DUP are apparently neck and neck in Belfast East, whereas Aliance are tipped to gain Lagan Valley from the DUP. The UUP are also expected to gain South Antrim from the DUP.
NORTHERN IRELAND SEATS TO WATCH
Key seats to watch in NI tomorrow night:
North Down - can Alliance hang on?
Belfast East - will Alliance unseat the DUP?
South Antrim - will the UUP unseat the DUP?
Fermangh & South Tyrone - UK's most marginal seat between Sinn Fein and the UUP.
#ukpolitics #ukpol #nipol #NorthernIreland #polling #DUP #SinnFein #AllianceParty #SDLP #UUP #TUV #GE2024
@SturmUndDranger if you'll look at the #nipol tag for my account, you'll see I've covered every NI poll this election, but unfortunately there's only one pollster who covers NI and they've only done 3 polls, and there are no MRP models available for NI because it is an incredibly difficult area to model and only has 18 seats.
You'll also note that the title of the post above is "GB MRP OPINION POLL", not "UK MRP OPINION POLL".
NORTHERN IRELAND OPINION POLL
Headline Westminster voting intention from final NI poll of the election by #LucidTalk:
Sinn Fein: 23% (-1 / =)
DUP: 21% (= / -10)
Alliance: 18% (+1 / +1)
SDLP: 14% (+1 / -1)
UUP: 13% (+1 / +1)
TUV: 4% (-1 / new)
Conducted 24-25 June 2024. Changes with 8-10 June 2024 / with 2019 general election.
#ukpolitics #ukpol #nipol #NorthernIreland #polling #DUP #SinnFein #AllianceParty #SDLP #UUP #TUV #GE2024
A seat projection by @electionmapsuk puts this as resulting in the following number of seats per party:
Sinn Fein: 8 (+1)
DUP: 5 (-3)
Alliance: 2 (+1)
SDLP: 2 (=)
UUP: 1 (+1)
Changes with 2019 general election.
#ukpolitics #nipol #NorthernIreland #polling #SinnFein #DUP #AllianceParty #UUP #SDLP #TUV #GreenParty #GE2024
