Reform projected to have most Senedd seats â but Plaid and Labour coalition most likely Government
A seat projection calculated by the public affairs company Cavendish Cymru has looked at the potential outcome of the new closed list proportional representation voting system.
The results show that Reform would have the largest number of seats, with 34.
Plaid Cymru would come second with 30 seats and Labour trailing in third with 21 seats.
The Conservatives are projected 8 seats, with the Liberal Democrats on 2 and the Greens picking up their first seat.
While Reform would be the largest party, they would not have enough seats to form a majority â even if they were to form a coalition with the Conservatives.
The most likely outcome would be a Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour coalition â either a formal agreement or a confidence-and-supply deal. This would be dependent on Labour supporting Plaidâs Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister, however.
The results would see First Minister Eluned Morgan lose her seat, while former Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price would return to the Senedd, despite placing third on Plaid Cymruâs Sir Gaerfyrddin list.
Seat projections for the Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd seat that covers Swansea East, Neath Port Talbot and South Powys show Reform picking up two seats, with Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Conservatives with one each.
In the GĹľyr Abertawe constituency covering Gower and Swansea West, Reform, Labour and Plaid Cymru would have two seats each.
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, which includes Bridgend, would see Reform and Labour each with two seats, with Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives taking one seat each.
Sir Gaerfyrddin covering Carmarthenshire would see Plaid Cymru and Reform take three seats each.
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