at times i think no matter how smart we are, no matter how much we do our theoretical homework or try to come up with a meaningful response to the everything-crisis - we are only just beginning to understand, but never fully will understand on an individual basis, the mess we have gotten ourselves into on so many levels. this stuff requires input from many, many more people (also for reasons grounded in #systemsdynamics).
#systemsdynamics
the #systemsdynamics say we are fucked.
but i am willing to discuss this with a #complexity scientist.
#climate folks really have to learn #systemsdynamics. if you want to counter to #doomers you have to because that is what they are arguing. and they make many mistakes in doing so. but on this one thing they are right for a change: it all comes back to #decoupling from #fossilfuel unless you want #degrowth.
please don't get me wrong. i am not denying the findings of #climatscience or the #limitstogrowth reports. yes, things look really dire. but the lack of true understanding of #systemsdynamics, which is not hard to obtain bc at the end of the day it is just basic observation of nature, will lead this whole #talkcollapse-thing to become a self fulfilling prophecy, bc you are closing your eyes to the options we STILL have by practicing this lack of understanding.
and yes, that should be good news.
so basically:
- #overshoot & #collapse as a #systemsdynamics concept are final & different from oscillation. it is not a thing you want to look forward to.
- although the #systemsdynamics are the same, collapse can happen slow and gradually. it depends on which variable you look at. when you say "collapse" also say 'collapse of what', exactly, bc otherwise it is just vibes-based BS. i am sorry.
but that is not always the case, although it is probably the concept most people have of #collapse. an abrupt and sudden breakdown of complexity.
it can also happen in a symmetric, gradual way, or even slower than the growth.
the underlying #systemsdynamics which cause the collapse are the same.
trying really hard not to be annoyed by social media all the time, but i have to get this very specific thing of my chest before my head explodes:
#AI #IT #TECH #FLOSS types who read an article on #complexity in AI once & now come spamming on my feed about #AI when i am very specifically talking about #systemsdynamics in #geopolitics or #SystemsEcology:
in case u still haven't gotten the memo: the world does not evolve around humans, not around human creations and for sure not around you guys.
didn't want to share ugo anymore because he became sort of an antivaxx hippie*, but he is the only one talking about his as far as i can see.
and interestingly, right now, it has absolutely nothing to do with #energy, which is a thing ugo should have mentioned.
the generation 2 collapseologists have a lot to correct themsleves on right now.
*just so you have been warned.
#complexity #collapse #talkcollapse #systemsdynamics #senecacliff
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-imp-with-a-chainsaw?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
there are like tons of more of these archetypes, i will add them over time. for now i hope people reading this get the idea.
#systemsdynamics looks for recurring patters of behavior over time. these patterns of behavior give insight into the systems structure from which it emerges. and knowing the structure we can reveal and pinpoint problems that might not directly meet the eye in the complexity we live in. systems dynamics is a way to think about #complexity.
K-selected species have slower reproduction & longer generation times, their responses to changes in population size are delayed, which creates lower-amplitude, slower oscillations in their populations.
they are selected for by evolution regarding resource use, hence K-selected.
humans like other big mammals once were a K-selected species, even when elon musk is flying around with his jet having 3 million kids - we still are.
#overshoot
#systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics
@systemsthinking
#systemsdynamics-wise there are 2 different types of species:
r-selected species like small mammals have rapid reproduction & short generation times, so they respond quickly to environmental changes. they produce many offspring, so they face overshooting K often, leading to high-amplitude, rapid oscillations in their population stocks, especially when delayed responses are present.
they are selected for by reproduction rates, hence r-selected.
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