Lmst

Marcus Herrmann boosted:

An awareness of the history of p-values might elp deflate their swollen stature and encourage more judicious use. We were surprised to learn, in the course of writing this article, that the p < 0.05 cutoff was established as a competitive response to a disagreement over book royalties between two foundational statisticians. In the early 1920s, Kendall Pearson, whose income depended on the sale of extensive statistical tables, was unwilling to allow Ronald A. Fisher to use them in his new book. To work around this barrier, Fisher created a method of inference based on only two values: p-values of 0.05 and 0.01 (Hurlbert and Lombardi,
2009). Fisher himself later admitted that Pearson's more continuous method of inference was better than his binary approach: "no scientific worker has a fixed level of significance at which from year to year, and in all circumstances, he rejects [null] hypotheses; he rather gives his mind to each particular case in the light of his evidence and ideas (Hurlbert and Lombardi, 2009: 316). A fair interpretation of this history is that we use p-values at east in part because a statistician from the 1920s was afraid that sharing his work would undermine his income

Actual paper (paywalled):
Goldfarb, B. and King, A.A. (2016), Scientific apophenia in strategic management research: Significance tests & mistaken inference. Strategic Management Journal, 37(1), 167-176. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2459

Same work published already earlier (free access):
Goldfarb, B.D. and King, A.A. (2014). Scientific Apophenia in Strategic Management Research. SSRN - Robert H. Smith School Research Paper. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2337682

@paninid

Marcus Herrmann boosted:

This is our fifth analysis demonstrating that earthquake precursor behavior proposed in the scientific literature does not exist. Our scientific paper analyses are free to read, forever. Comments can be left either on our post or on PubPeer.

If you think this kind of investigative scientific analysis is important, consider supporting our work by becoming a paid subscriber to our blog.

We are independent scientists (not paid employees) and rely on community support.

Marcus Herrmann boosted:

I guess the takeaway from the xz backdoor situation is:

If you’re an open-source project maintainer, and somebody starts getting on your case for not doing enough free work for them, you reply “big Jia Tan energy there” and then block them forever.

Marcus Herrmann boosted:

How can we foster the link between scientific knowledge and societal action?

In this opinion piece, Dallo et al. demonstrate how open, transdisciplinary, and ethical science is needed to facilitate it and increase our resilience to disasters.

#Seismology #EarthquakeScience #DiamondOpenAccess #Earthquake #OpenAccess #OpenScience #resilience #scienceandsociety

@Marcus

📢 Paper alert:
"Maximizing the forecasting skill of an ensemble model"
https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/234/1/73/6994524
#doi: 10.1093/gji/ggad020

An #ensemble model combines a set of (#probabilistic) #forecasts. To obtain model weights that maximize its skill, we use multivariate #LogisticRegression. This ensemble strategy is superior to weighting forecasts equally or according to their individual skill – as demonstrated for operational #earthquake #forecasting in Italy (15 years of data).

#seismology #NaturalHazard

To all Bachelor students in Geophysics/Geology/Geochemistry (and related fields) out there looking for a #Master course: The University of Naples 'Federico II' (Italy) and the INGV have launched one for #Volcanolgy 🌋🎓.

Read more about the why, what, and how:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d43978-023-00015-w

@geologiaymapas
Yes, but did you know that many of those are #conflict minerals?
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/headlines/world/20170314STO66681/conflict-minerals-the-bloody-truth-behind-your-smartphone

Keep this in mind next time you think you need a new #smartphone
https://mossy.earth/guides/lifestyle/sustainable-and-ethical-smartphones

#sustainable #ethical

@nishtha_srivastava
I have no experience with the #MagnitudeFrequencyDistribution of the #BodyWaveMagnitude. But if you want to get a #bvalue that is consistent with other studies and physically meaningful, then you should convert to #MomentMagnitude (Mw), yes.
See also:
https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200337, where we found inconsistencies among the different magnitude types in high-res catalogs. The simplest remedy is to estimate Mw for every #earthquake, as it scales consistently across all event sizes.

📢 Paper & Data alert:
"A comprehensive suite of #earthquake catalogues for the 2016–2017 Central #Italy seismic sequence"
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-022-01827-z

We provide and document a #dataset of six catalogs for this sequence, which were developed with a variety of methods ranging from real-time to advanced #MachineLearning procedures.

I'm proud to be co-author among so many #seismologist-s.

#ScientificData #SpringerNature
#Seismology #OpenAccess

@DrWendyRocks
The actual reason is captured by the #GutenbergRichter relation [ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gutenberg%E2%80%93Richter_law], that is, the occurrence frequency of small events is linked to the frequency of large(r) events.
Let me briefly explain: On average, for every unit increase in magnitude, this occurrence frequency decreases by a factor of ten (e.g., a M5 is 10x more common than a M6). But because the released energy scales by 10^1.5 with the magnitude, we get the scaling that Wendy mentioned (~32x).

Marcus Herrmann boosted:

hello there! I am Leila, I do #earthquake #statistics (mostly #seismicity #forecasting) at ETH in Zurich.

besides earthquakes, I am interested in #mathematics, #logic, #pythonprogramming, #EquityandEquality, #openscience, #climbing, being #outdoors and am always excited to learn something new! will use this account mostly to talk about work-related interests.

@oahelper
Thanks for your efforts! I really enjoy this extension. Integrating @opencitations was a clever idea. Looking forward to the #OpenAlex integration.

@lienrag Sure. What kind of wacky aspects do you have in mind? That an exoquake may split the planet in half?
Recalling analyses of #moonquakes:
https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/home/15mar_moonquakes.html
and #marsquakes:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsquake
they are exceptional by 1) typically shaking longer (more scattering) and 2) more often being meteoroid impacts (thinner atmosphere).

You may get more inspiration here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quake_(natural_phenomenon)
Quite impressive: a #sunquake can reach magnitudes >11—impossible on earth.

@Sargoth
Good point. Conciseness is king/queen. In this regard...

did you know
that the Methodology section should most likely not be called that way?
Methodology is the study of methods:
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/methodology#Usage_notes
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methodology#As_study_of_methods

-> better: 'Methods' - that's simpler, often more accurate and less pretentious.

@ckohtala I don't know about a good write-up/comparison, but here the tool that I'm using: Zim wiki (https://zim-wiki.org), which also plays well with SyncThing (only need to sync a folder with markdown-like text files, like Obsidian).

I guess the best comparison is to try out a few by yourself and stick with the preferred one. Here you can start exploring:
https://alternativeto.net/category/productivity/note-taking

I guess the biggest difference of the ones you mention is local vs. online-only storage...

#introduction
I'm a statistical seismologist in 🇪🇺 at #UniNa (#Naples, #Italy).

I analyze #earthquake #data with #statistics, #brain, and #colleagues in #international projects—to advance #earthquake #forecast-ing.

About me:
◦ PhD in #seismic #hazard/#risk & #induced #seismicity.
◦ Curious about all things related to #science/#research (from the human genome to climate change to distant neutron stars)
◦ Proponent of #OpenScience and #CitizenScience
◦ Contributing to various #BOINC projects

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