- Insurgencies in #Awdal and #SSCKhatumo are expected to find continued support in #Puntland, #Somalia and #Djibouti.
#Awdal
Meanwhile former #Somaliland ally #Djibouti is now embroiled in a proxy war with the same, through SSC, but also a new insurgency formed in #Awdal in opposition to a hypothetical Ethiopian military base. On the other hand, Somaliland is supporting Djiboutian rebels.
Somaliland has held elections on 13 Nov 2024, with the new administration announcing a review of the MoU with #Ethiopia.
The stakes were not only #Ethiopia 's recognition of # #Somaliland 's independence - which never occured - but Ethiopia's commercial access to the sea - which was otherwise secured - and the setting up of a military base in #Awdal, near #Djibouti 's border.
After Ethiopian open jingoism, Ethiopian and Somali threats of (proxy) war, Ethiopian shows of force, Somali empty ultimatums, the situation has temporarily cooled down thanks to #Turkey's mediation.
This has already led to the rekindling of the #SSCKhatumo conflict and the birth of an #Awdal insurgency in #Somaliland, a proxy war between Somaliland and #Djibouti, and the looming threat of an Ethiopian-Egyptian proxy war in #Somalia. Al #Shabaab (AS) has already largely benefitted from the spat and seems to have formed close ties with the #Houthis.
So far, it can be said to have failed on all accounts. #Ethiopia still exercizes caution as to military support and official recognition. A new secessionist movement appeared in the West, in relation with the project of an Ethiopian naval base. The MoU triggered a proxy war with former ally #Djibouti, which now supports both #SSCKhatumo and #Awdal secessionists. Khatumo forces recently launched a raid on Erigavo, in #Sanaag, contesting Somaliland’s continued control of its coastline.
The question that remains is whether #Ethiopia, which in 2023 had observed events in #Somaliland rather cooly, will be willing to continue to cooperate on a strategic level with Hargeisa after this fiasco. After losing #SSCKhatumo last year, this MoU has triggered a proxy war with #Djibouti over #Awdal.
An immediate consequence has been for former #Somaliland ally #Djibouti to support #Awdal’s #Gadabuursi clan against Hargeisa. The site of the Ethiopian naval base, on Gadabuursi territory, is located at barely 25 km from Djibouti’s border.
The setting up of an Ethiopian naval base in Zeila, #Awdal, has been the main focus of Somali outcry against #Ethiopia’s encroachment of her sovereignty. It has also brought into question whether #Turkey would be obliged to intervene against it, after the naval MoU signed with #Somalia over the training of a Somali maritime force, the protection and exploitation of the Somali EEZ.
The Somali response had initially been exceptionally firm and her position strong on all accounts. #Somaliland was uniquely weakened to begin with, including on account of #SSCKhatumo’s secession last August. The MoU also weakened #Awdal’s loyalty. All of #Somalia’s partners and major international organizations sided with Mogadiscio, including #Ethiopia’s all-weather partner #China. Ethiopia seemed to hesitate.
Recent reports that the #Ethiopia-#Somaliland agreement could be finalized shortly could also mean both countries become intended targets - especially so the future site of the Ethiopian naval base in #Awdal, near #Djibouti's border. Ethiopia had hinted her attempt at gaining sea access was also meant to contribute in the military effort against the #Houthis.
Meanwhile, the Ethiopian MoU has triggered the demission of the minister for Defence, the arrest of the minister for Agriculture as well as several journalists. It has also greatly strengthened resistance in #Awdal, with the #Gadabuursi lobbying Mogadiscio for support.
#Somaliland’s Coast Guard Corps has arrested 170+ Ethiopian human traffickers off the coast of #SSC-#Khatumo, reaffirming its sovereignty over the unionist region, highlighting the many trafficks with Yemen, and posing itself as a necessary actor in countering them.
#Ethiopia had been careful to frame her project of a naval base in #Awdal as a way to join the fight against the #Houthis, until now to no avail.
https://www.garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/ethiopian-nationals-arrested-in-somalia
Should Somali deterrence fail, support to insurgencies in #Awdal (#Somaliland) and in the Somali region of #Ethiopia are to be expected. Turkish — and even Egyptian — involvement, if not highly probable, remains possible after the recent signing of a bilateral security deal.
#Ethiopia has engaged since 1 January in an arm wrestling match with #Somalia over access to the port of Berbera and the setting up of a naval base in #Awdal (#Somaliland). She has promised to become the first UN member to recognise Somaliland’s independence in a controversial Memorandum of Agreement (MoU).
#Somalia signs deal with #Turkey over oil, natural gas
Once again, Somalia managed to turn crisis into opportunity. #Ethiopia has been forcefully seeking access to the #RedSea port of #Berbera and a naval base in #Awdal against recognition of #Somaliland, which is extremely unlikely to ever materialize. Meanwhile, Somalia has seized the opportunity to press her advantage against Somaliland and enlist Turkey's support to retake control of her #EEZ.
https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/turkey-to-help-somalia-retake-control-of-her-eez-db5c8676a4cb
While #Somaliland has been weakened by the secession of #SSCKhatumo, contestation from ministers as well as from #Issa and #Gadabuursi clans in #Awdal (where the Ethiopian naval base should be situated) and an electoral crisis, threats of insurgencies in Somaliland and the Somali region of #Ethiopia as well as a war between Ethiopia and #Somalia are looming.
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