#RadioVerda - La mito pri senfina kresko https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDIAQNL7UgI #Esperanto #economy #ekonomio #collapse #limitstogrowth
#LimitsToGrowth
The Quest for Prosperity | Tim Jackson’s Foreword for Richard McNeill Douglas’ new book The Meaning of Growth: Anti-Environmentalist Rhetoric and the Defence of Modernity. → https://cusp.ac.uk/themes/aetw/tj-quest-for-prosperity/
"What can prosperity possibly mean when you’re living on a lonely rock hurtling blindly through space at half a million miles an hour? Some questions are as old as the hills—and yet remain fresher than the darling buds of May."
I finished reading Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet by Thomas Murphy. It's powerful. He argues decisively that growth (including economic growth) will stop soon compared to the length of time since the beginning of agriculture. All it takes is one critical resource to limit growth. Even in the wildly optimistic scenarios where energy is limitless, eventually temperature from our own energy use will limit growth. Space exploration will only delay the end of growth, and will cause its own problems. I found the arguments to be convincing.
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9js5291m
#sustainability
#limitsToGrowth
#finitePlanet
1/N
Climate denial and the defence of modernity—What we are lacking is an inspiring vision of our lives, collective futures, and spiritual reality in a world in which we cannot keep growing forever. As much as we need policy wonks, scientists, and campaigners, CUSP researcher Dr Richard Douglas argues in this blog, now is the time for philosophers, religious thinkers and writers to apply themselves to social change.→ https://cusp.ac.uk/themes/m/blog-rd-growth-defence-of-modernity/
I have been on a kick reading/listening about how human civilization will stop growing. It is crazy the disconnect between these physical limits and "common sense". People talk about how in the long term stocks go up in value. So much of our society is predicated on perpetual growth. But nothing grows for ever even if it has grown for the past few centuries.
Tom Murphy has a very solid argument about how economics is tied to the physical world, and physical limits will lead to the economy to stop growing. I recently came across his Comment in the journal Nature Physics
https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu/papers/limits-econ-final.pdf
Diagramme actualisé du World3 - Club de Rome (2023)
https://www.informassue.tuxfamily.org/pages/sans_lendemain.php#diagramme
Un #diagramme récent, en 2023, a été réalisé par une équipe de scientifiques de Cologne (Allemagne).
#Recalibration23 #World3 #LtG #LimitsToGrowth #Population #Démographie #Meadows #MIT #ClubDeRome #BAU #BAU2 #Capitalisme #Croissance #Consommation #Surconsommation #Pollution #ToujoursPlus #Effondrement #Collapse #Science #Sciences
but that is basically all that is said about it in the actual #limitstogrowth report.
it is one of sort of the shortcomings of it, because wealth inequality was much less when it was done & so it did not account for it.
we are talking about having to live with a lot less, fast, soon. and we did so far not talk about wealth inequality. we can just say: global average income will decline.
i'll just leave that as food for thought about what the next step might be.
according to the report, the first peak that we will face, and it might actually happen pretty soon, is the peak in industrial output. a combination of resource depletion, environmental pollution & infrastructure depreciation resulting in diminishing returns and untimatly decline of investment in many aspects of human life. income, employment, goods & services will get less. this is a seneca-type of #collapse.
please don't get me wrong. i am not denying the findings of #climatscience or the #limitstogrowth reports. yes, things look really dire. but the lack of true understanding of #systemsdynamics, which is not hard to obtain bc at the end of the day it is just basic observation of nature, will lead this whole #talkcollapse-thing to become a self fulfilling prophecy, bc you are closing your eyes to the options we STILL have by practicing this lack of understanding.
and yes, that should be good news.
the next issue i have with all of this #collapse talk is that people cannot differentiate between running a SD model and crystal ball gazing the future. a SD model does not predict the future. it explores system behavior. the scientific question behind #limitstogrowth was not: "when will #collapse happen?". it was: "are there limits to growth of the economy?" and the answer was: "yes".
what humans make of it is not in the authors control.
so basically:
- #overshoot & #collapse as a #systemsdynamics concept are final & different from oscillation. it is not a thing you want to look forward to.
- although the #systemsdynamics are the same, collapse can happen slow and gradually. it depends on which variable you look at. when you say "collapse" also say 'collapse of what', exactly, bc otherwise it is just vibes-based BS. i am sorry.
when you look at the #limitstogrowth world3 model you can see the graphs tracking the stocks & flows taking different shapes. the time frame of decline is not always the same for all variables.
when the decline happens faster than the growth resulting in an asymmetric curve it is called "the seneca cliff". it’s the shape #collapse takes when decline is accelerated by self-reinforcing feedbacks & lost resilience, making decline faster than growth ever was.
#collapse is not a correction, it is not our chance to reboot civilization, it is a phase shift where our life support systems capacities & feedback structures are fundamentally altered. it is sustained, nonlinear decline to a MUCH LOWER, new equilibrium.
and i am very sorry, but i can't help the feeling that many who celebrate it have no clue what they are talking about.
so as the population grows, its consumption begins to exceed the regenerative capacity of its environment.
so now this is where collapse is different from temporary decline:
when the balancing feedbacks, which would naturally constrain the growth, and normally let the system fluctuate around its equilibrium, kick in too late - the population keeps growing despite its supporting ecosystem eroding. that is what is meant by the system overshooting.
in #systemdynamics, which is what we are talking about looking at #complex #systems like societies, #collapse typically describes a rapid, nonlinear, sustained decline in stocks & flows such as population & industrial output after a period of growth or plateauing, caused by a change in feedback dominance in the systems causal structure.
anyway people want to #talkcollapse, maybe it is time to do that (given #trump, mostly)?
the issue i have that most people who talk about it, really don't know what it means or can mean, nor have any agreed upon definition, apart from just vibes and vague feelings. and that in itself is a dangerous thing because they will take #hope away from people, merely based on #vibes.
they should do an update on this accounting for all the shit that happened since trump. i want to see what industrial output does.
this one predicted the peak in industrial output to be delayed, but then happening sharper. but this assumed like trump not confusing the world economy.
and whatever ideology we wrap it in: imperialism, colonialism, capitalism, neo-feudalism, there seems to me only one true purpose behind it, when you strip all the ideology and lame excuses away, which is that some white men somewhere get even more rich and powerful than they already have been.
and you sit there with a straight face & tell me that aCtUaLly it's the max power principle?
anyway by that i mean: yeah the end of slavery drove the mechanization of agriculture, machines which run on petroleum products.
the mindset that brought us colonialism & slavery did not go away with slavery itself. it just shifted to other resources to exploit. the underlying idea, that what we call "industry" and "civilization" is a blessing on the world brought by white westerners & has to be expanded at all costs NEVER WENT AWAY.
odum called for "revolutionary change" (his words not mine).
you guys call for being apolitical.
WTF happened to you?
#collapse #climatechange #limitstogrowth #evironmentalism #doomers
Client Info
Server: https://mastodon.social
Version: 2025.07
Repository: https://github.com/cyevgeniy/lmst