"The global race to develop advanced AI has entered a newphase marked by staggering investments, rapid technical breakthroughs, and intensifying geopolitical competition. The United States now controls approximately 75% of global AI compute capacity, China 15%, and the EU 5%. This concentration of compute, alongside concentrations of AI development talent, data, and AI model ownership suggests that mid-sized economies likely face insurmountable barriers to independent frontier AI development.
At the same time, economic, cultural, and security infrastructures are coming to rely ever more on frontier models. States that are unable to develop their own frontier models or access the computing hardware required to train them will have to choose between dependency and weakness:
- Dependency: if states adopt U.S. or Chinese AI systems, these frontier AI states can then exploit their privileged position in ways that harm dependent states, for example through data theft, service restrictions, selectively withholding frontier capabilities, embedding values in foundation models, and unfavorable terms of trade.
- Weakness: if, on the other hand, states limit their adoption of frontier systems to avoid dependency, frontier AI states may achieve breakthrough capabilities—in economic productivity, in scientific discovery, in military operations—that create widening gaps in economic and military capabilities.
Yet, mid-sized economies are also AI bridge powers, possessing substantial AI development capabilities and resources that, if combined, would allow them to challenge the status quo. By working together and strategically choosing their AI development approaches, AI bridge powers can develop competitive frontier models:
First, pooled computing infrastructure can support frontier-scale development..."
https://aigi.ox.ac.uk/publications/a-blueprint-for-multinational-advanced-ai-development/
#AI #EU #USA #China #AIDevelopment #PoliticalEconomy #Geopolitics