#ClimateLiability

Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability

Will it ever be possible to sue anyone for damaging the climate? Twenty years after this question was first posed, we argue that the scientific case for climate liability is closed.
Here we detail the scientific and legal implications of an ‘end-to-end’ attribution that links fossil fuel producers to specific damages from warming. Using scope 1 and 3 emissions data from major fossil fuel companies, peer-reviewed attribution methods and advances in empirical climate economics, we illustrate the trillions in economic losses attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from individual companies. Emissions linked to Chevron, the highest-emitting investor-owned company in our data, for example, very likely caused between US$791 billion and $3.6 trillion in heat-related losses over the period 1991–2020, disproportionately harming the tropical regions least culpable for warming. More broadly, we outline a transparent, reproducible and flexible framework that formalizes how end-to-end attribution could inform litigation by assessing whose emissions are responsible and for which harms. Drawing quantitative linkages between individual emitters and particularized harms is now feasible, making science no longer an obstacle to the justiciability of climate liability claims.

Paper (PDF):
nature.com/articles/s41586-025

#BP #Gazprom #SaudiAramco #ExxonMobile #Chevron

#ClimateScience
#CarbonMajor
#CO2
#GlobalWarming
#Economy
#ClimateCatastrophe
#ClimateResponsibility
#ClimateLiability
#FossilFuel
#Capitalism
#NeoCapitalism
#ClimateBreakdown
#ClimateComplaint

Fig. 1 | Estimated change in global mean temperature and local extreme heat by carbon majors. a, CO2 emissions in megatonnes of carbon (MtC)  per year from the top five emitting fossil fuel companies (‘carbon majors’).  

b, Changes in global mean temperature caused by the cumulative emissions  of each carbon major. Vertical axis denotes the magnitude of global warming resulting from each company in each year. Solid lines show the mean from 1,001 FaIR simulations, each run with a different calibrated parameter set; shading 
shows the 90% range across the FaIR ensemble. 

c, Changes in 1991–2020 global average subnational Tx5d (temperature of the five hottest days in each year) from each carbon major, estimated by combining the FaIR simulations with CMIP6-based pattern scaling. Solid line shows the mean and shading shows the IPCC uncertainty ranges arising from interacting FaIR and pattern-scaling uncertainties. 

d, Marginal economic effect of increases in Tx5d on economic growth in percentage points per degree Celsius (p.p. °C−1) across a range of regional annual mean temperature values. Solid line shows the mean estimate and shading shows the 90% confidence interval (CI) range, based on the observed relationship between Tx5d and economic growth. Positive values indicate that cool regions benefit from higher temperatures, whereas negative values indicate that warm regions suffer from higher temperatures.
CelloMom On CarsCelloMomOnCars
2023-05-22

over the 2010-2019 decade averaged $ 148 bn a year, which is roughly the same as the $ 209 bn a year quoted in this study:

"The world’s top#FossilFuel companies owe at least $209bn in annual to compensate communities most damaged by their polluting business and decades of lies."

This data is grist for the mill.

theguardian.com/environment/20

2023-05-12

⚖️ Recently, the U.S. #SupremeCourt declined to hear a petition on whether #climateliability cases should be heard in state or federal court. As a result, 11 cases will be remanded to state court to move towards motions to dismiss, discovery & trial. Our climate law fellow Korey Silverman-Roati delves into the factors that led to this decision: blogs.law.columbia.edu/climate

Patrick Thomas Sudlowpatricksudlow@social.weho.st
2019-10-10

#BigOil has knowingly fueled & denied the #climatecrisis for decades. Join me and sign your name to demand they are held accountable! #ClimateLiability #SmokeandFumes @ciel_tweets bit.ly/2Mo6Xcp

2018-03-22
RT @cragcrest: What went down at the #climateliability trial yesterday? @annabarryjester has this colorful report on the #climatetutorial J…

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