What is Past is Prologue:
#Paleoclimate constraints on #ECS Equilibrium #ClimateSensitivity #GreenhouseGas sensitivity of Earth's #Climate

First of 3 papers this summer.

My career trajectory has been building towards using past climate archives to narrow the possibilities of future climate. But it is HARD. And computationally expensive.

The next two papers of this project will rule out some high and low sensitivity simulations using Past Climate (Proxy) archives and Data Assimilation. Those should be out in preprint in the next couple of months.

We hope this project (first to constrain earth climate sensitivity using coupled atmosphere-ocean earth system models) will be streamlined in the future and applied widely.

https://essopenarchive.org/users/921675/articles/1297441-on-the-sensitivity-of-climate-sensitivity-in-a-coupled-climate-model

What is Past is Prologue: #Paleoclimate constraints on #ECS #ClimateSensitivity #GreenhouseGas sensitivity of Earth's #Climate First of 3 papers this summer. Next two will rule out some ECS using Data Assimilation of past climate archives essopenarchive.org/users/921675... @ccolose.bsky.social

On the Sensitivity of Climate ...

The third possible cause is cause for concern:

"If the cloud-related albedo decline was caused not solely by internal variability, the 2023 extra heat may be here to stay and Earth’s climate sensitivity may be closer to the upper range of current estimates."

#ClimateSensitivity
#EarthAlbedo

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/12/new-study-blames-recent-spike-in-global-warming-on-lack-of-low-clouds/

The climate of the world of #GameOfThrones
https://scholar.google.de/scholar?cluster=11346321411393038083&hl=en&as_sdt=0,5
by Samwell #Tarly 2017.
Already has 4 citations too. And openaccess!
Complete with many model output maps and acknowledgments: Gilly, who did all the lit search in the Citadel's library but wouldn't be co-author "in a jounal edited by kneelers". 😁
Screenshots show seasonal temperature, precip, hPa and wind,
and the other one is a modelled map with #climate sensitivity of 2.1C

Scholar-google knows of 2 PDF versions, one "is in some form of Elvish, I can't read".
#paleoclimate #climatesensitivity #GoT #SamwellTarly

#climate #climatesensitivity

CO₂ puts heavier stamp on temperature than previously thought, analysis suggests
https://phys.org/news/2024-06-heavier-temperature-previously-thought-analysis.html

"Climate sensitivity is a number that roughly speaking tells us how fast climate change will get worse. A few years ago, after various software improvements, a bunch of climate models began having a much higher climate sensitivity than previously. Climate scientists have come up with reasons for why to ignore this. I think it's a bad idea to ignore this."
-- Sabine Hossenfelder

#Climate #ClimateSensitivity #ClimateChange

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4

Sabine Hossenfelder: "I was not worried about climate change. Now I am." "I pray these numbers are wrong."

https://youtu.be/4S9sDyooxf4?si=G8LWvUFR-rZWVmP9

#science #models #forecasts #climate #climatesensitivity #clouds

"But it just blows my mind how mindfuckingly stupid it is that the lives of all people on this planet depend on an obscure discussion about the properties of supercooled water droplets in a type of cloud whose name I can't even remember."

#ClimateSensitivity is a number that roughly speaking tells us how fast #ClimateChange will get worse. A few years ago, after various software improvements, a bunch of climate models began having a much higher climate sensitivity than previously.

"...And, no. AI isn't going to solve the problem, because the problem isn't that we're missing a technological solution, the problem is that we can't agree to implement the solutions that we have."

@skdh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4

Zeke Hausfather's conclusion:

""Arguments over ECS are distractions. Whether it’s 3C or 5C is a bit like whether a firing squad has 6 rifleman or 10. It’s bad either way. Ongoing research will continue to sharpen our understanding of ECS, but it won't change the immediate task before us: the rapid decarbonization of our society. This remains our paramount challenge, regardless of the precise severity of the climate threat."

#ECS
#ClimateSensitivity
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/revisiting-the-hot-model-problem

Climate sensitivity is a number that roughly speaking tells us how fast climate change will get worse.

A few years ago, after various software improvements, a bunch of climate models began having a much higher climate sensitivity.

Climate scientists have come up with reasons for why to ignore this. They were probably wrong to do so 🤔

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4

If you are prone to depression when reading less than hopeful new information then you might want to skip this one.

#ClimateChrisis #ClimateSensitivity #GlobalWarming

#SabineHossenfelder on why #ClimateChange worries her, particularly with reference to '#ClimateSensitivity'

And I am with her on this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4

#Science #Meteorology #ClimateScience #GlobalWarming #Climate #ElNino #ElNina #ECS #CMIP #HotModel #HotModels

#MPI-Scientists in Paris 🇫🇷 at CFMIP-GASS:
A joint conference between Cloud Feedback Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) and Global Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) is taking place this week. Thankfully hosted by the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) at the Sorbonne University. The focus is on #Clouds, #Convection, #Circulation, and #ClimateSensitivity. Even though one week is much too short, the participants are motivated and very engaged in the talks, posters and breakout sessions.

@anlomedad you've asked a very simple question with a rather complicated answer!
I guess you're asking about transient as opposed to equilibrium #ClimateSensitivity (what we sometimes just call #TCS Vs #ECS)

This explainer from @carbonbrief's @hausfath is probably the easiest way to answer this question.
It's... complicated. And a lot of ink has been spilled trying to answer it.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity/

Good couple of #blogposts by @kenrice on a recent paper by #JamesHansen et al I'd missed about #ClimateSensitivity.
I tend to agree about the #IceSheet point, it's hard to extrapolate #ECS from #palaeoclimate on #milankovitch timescales because the whole world was *very* different place

https://fediscience.org/@kenrice/109672854728148311

Another #OpenAccess feature from this week's @SkepticalScience New Research sieve: a paper with a provocative finding about climate sensitivity.

Time-delayed exploding sensitivity, so to speak.

#ClimateSensitivity
#ClimateScience
#ClimateChange

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2022.0483

@morganastra

You should write a book on the solution and game plan, you might save the world. 🖖🏻

What 'we' can do, theoretically, with or without government involvement, and what we will do soon enough for it to matter one iota before latent carbon heating tips the scales (#ClimateSensitivity) are two different galaxies. One is an ideal that has barely formed, if at all. The other has long been happening and nearly crossed the threshold; it will in this century, if not already.

@jbond

5% is likely generous. When you factor in #ClimateSensitivity (the increasing release of CO2 from deep ocean water, polar ice, frozen tundra, etc due to latent climate heating) which can not be reeled back at this point, mean temp is already slated for more than 4°C.

Society as we know it is already screwed, though we'll be gone before it gets ugly. The nightmare will unfold as this century plays out.

#ClimateSensitivity is the most critical factor of #ClimateChange. It's a slow period of global temp increase due to build-up momentum of deep ocean warming. Temp then jumps quickly through compounding effects, e.g. lack of cloud cover, no ice reflection, etc.

New studies say we underestimated the danger. Life will fry by end of century if we don't make vast cuts in #CO2 in next 10 years. 😂

https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/05/hopes-of-mild-climate-change-dashed-by-new-research