A new study has come to my notice estimating the #co2footprint of #climate simulations within the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6*).
It is sobering to learn that the carbon footprint of the European consortium alone was that of around 200 Germans.
While preparing for CMIP7 we need to embrace the challenge of running only necessary simulations and being clever about data storage.
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/3081/2024/gmd-17-3081-2024.pdf
Climatematch Impact Scholars presented inspiring work in yesterday's seminars 🙌 Join us for the second day of the public seminars chaired by climate scientists from #CMIP and #LEAP 🎉
✨ Register here to receive the Zoom link: https://programs.climatematch.io/output-guidelines/seminar_presentations.html
#ClimateScience #climate #science #research #academia #climatematch #AcademicChatter
#SabineHossenfelder on why #ClimateChange worries her, particularly with reference to '#ClimateSensitivity'
And I am with her on this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4S9sDyooxf4
#Science #Meteorology #ClimateScience #GlobalWarming #Climate #ElNino #ElNina #ECS #CMIP #HotModel #HotModels
Have a look at the new World Meteorological Organization Bulletin "A Paradigm Shift in Climate Modelling for Climate Services".
We report on flagship activities of the World Climate Research Programme, scoping new directions in climate modelling, climate projections in next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, and more exciting topics.
https://library.wmo.int/viewer/68557/download?file=WMO-Bulletin-72-2_en.pdf&type=pdf&navigator=1
Today I'm at #ESA's #ESRIN site for the joint European Commission - ESA Earth System Science Initiative, representing @PolarRES + @OceanIceEU today and tomorrow in plenary talks.
The topic: how to better use Earth Observation data with #ClimateModels to understand the Earth System. It's a big topic but one I've been working on for some years.
First some input from #CMIP on the next intercomparison for the #IPCC - #CMIP7
Ah, okay. Nur, dass das nicht vergessen wird. Es sind die Gesellschaften, die mit den physikalischen Zahlen überleben müssen und die sind so schlecht vorbereitet und derartig unwillig, dass es eben gar keine gekippten Strömungen und Eisschilde braucht, um die Show zu beenden. RCP8.5 gibt es, wo die Show theoretisch immer weiter geht. Aber ein #RCPcollapse gibt es nicht, weil das Hirn sich das Ende nicht vorstellen kann und will.
Dabei gehts nach dem Ende ja auch weiter und es ist wichtig, Überlebende heute schon zu informieren, auf was sie sich dann klimaseitig in ihrer Region einstellen müssen.
Danach würde sich auch richten, welches Wissen sie bereit sind sich anzueignen, um in einer low-Tech Welt meaningful zu überleben und resilliente Communities im voraus zu bilden.
Zu Deiner Frage, was der höchste plausible physikalische Wert ist, der bis 2040 in °C erreicht werden kann, würd mich aber auch die Antwort interessieren.
Hm. In 2040 wirkt theoretisch das CO2, das bis 2030 emittiert worden war.
Allerdings haben wir ja nun eine Asymmetrie in NOx und SO2 versus Methan. (siehe Grafik, die schön veranschaulicht, wie zwischen 2010 und 2019 die beiden SO2 und NOx die Erhitzung durch Methan ausglichen). Und eine Methan Pledge (-30% bis 2030), an die sich niemand hält. So werden also tüchtig die "sauberen" Kohlekraftwerke hochgezogen, die bis 2030 schön viel CO2 aber weniger SO2 emittieren. E-Autos verursachen kein NOx mehr. Aber im Gegensatz dazu gibt es einen LNG-boom mit Methanschlupf, der sich gewaschen hat. (Ach ja, und Wiedervernässen von Mooren soll auch schnell schnell passieren... noch so ein #Geoengineering mit #Methan..)
Diese Asymmetrie ist glaubich nicht in #CMIP Projektion drin.
Kann mir auch nicht vorstellen, dass die "positiven" climate feedbacks durch SO2 und NOx, also zB mehr #Dürren, die zu mehr #CO2 aus trockenen Böden und brennenden Wäldern sowie auch veränderter Rossby-Waves (trockene Böden sind heißer = Rossby blocking) führen, sich wieder umkehren lassen, sobald vll dann ja doch mal die Methanemissionen verringert werden.
Der Erhitzungspfad wird durch die Asymmetrie mMn nachhaltig verändert.
@rahmstorf @TatianaIlyina @ccca @daniel_huppmann
From October 2023 until the culmination of CMIP7, I am honored to serve as a member of the Advisory Group for the ScenarioMIP Scientific Steering Committee. I hope to contribute to ScenarioMIP SSC and its Advisory Group by providing unique insights into East Asian contexts and the nuances of systems ecology.
Return of El Niño raises risk of hunger, drought and malaria, scientists warn.
There is a lot of discussion in scientific literature on how #climatechange affects El Niño. #CMIP model projections indicate its intensification with faster onset and slower decay in the 21st century.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29519-7
Thank you to all our collaborators listed below who have helped create content for Computational Tools for Climate Science!
It wouldn't have been possible without your incredible contributions 💯🎉
@ProjectPythia is an educational resource for the entire geoscience community, providing open-source, Python-centered learning materials. 🐍 #ProjectPythia
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The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a collaborative framework designed to improve our knowledge of climate change, facilitating multi-model comparisons and making data publicly available. 📊 #CMIP
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Fantastic news from the #WCRP (ht @TatianaIlyina ) . If you're an #ECR interested in #Climate simulations and setting the agenda for the next CMIP, sign up here :
#CMIP7 #CMIP #ClimateModelling
https://mas.to/@TatianaIlyina/110303768337311239
Hi everyone. New server. I'm Ben Sanderson - #climate scientist at #CICERO in Oslo, previously at #NCAR Some hashtags:
#CMIP
#scenario
#emulation
#uncertainty
#emissions
#carbon
#feedbacks
#policy
#ensembles
#SCM
Back to the #AMOC - my #DMI colleague Steffen Olsen who is *the* expert in #Denmark talking about what has actually been observed in the #NorthAtlantic - the #WarmingHole + #ColdBlob + how #CMIP models represent it...
High variability + little trend (so far).
