Had a wonderful time at the Taste of China Festival in Cary — celebrating culture, community, and some incredible food! It was great speaking with so many friends and neighbors. 📸 Grateful to everyone who stopped by to say hello for the last day of #EarlyVote 🗳️ 👉 Learn more: wileynickel.com
#EarlyVote
Out at early voting in Apex supporting our three great candidates for the Apex Town Council (EdGray, Sue Mu and Shane Reese). All three are endorsed by @wakedems.bsky.social. Local elections matter — make your voice heard and VOTE! 🗳️ #ncpol #EarlyVote
These voices represent trust, experience, and a shared vision for a stronger future. Their support means everything, and it reminds me why we’re doing this: for equity, for action, and for everyone who’s been left behind. #reelect #bonita #earlyvote #election #election2025
Advanced voting starts today! April 18-21 #NDP Port Moody - Coquitlam #election #election2025 #canpoli #cdnpoli #politics #earlyvote #advancevote #canada #elbowsup
ICYMI: Jon Ralston, based on the early vote, predicts #Harris will win #Nevada narrowly—will depend on late mail ballots in Clark County and for independents to lean Harris.
The race is extremely volatile though, so it would not be a shock if she did not win.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions
#uspol #politics #uspolitics #election #trump #nv #earlyvote
I've already submitted my #earlyvote and today I'm serviing #juryduty. Being a good citizen all around. (Just wish the person watching TV on their iPad would use headphones)
Group update: since breaking our 4,000 followers goal last #EarlyVote deadline, we have not been pushing new followers but people, we are in the end game of the end game now.
We just about 20ish followers away from 4,100 followers and we want to be at maximum social reach this group will ever be at for Election day.
Boost to help share to all your pro-Harris friends! On Tuesday, 3 days from now, we want to make the biggest spash for getting out the vote that the #Fediverse has ever seen. Our early vote day was stunning and this one we hope to make some fediverse history in scale.
The tag will be #FederateTheVote and we want every single #KamalaHarris supporter we can get to join in. cc: @GottaLaff
Our human nature makes us seek information when we’re faced with terrifying uncertainty, but there is nothing which can clear that up right now.
Our only indicators are ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
#uspol #politics #uspolitics #harris #election #vote #voting #earlyvote
There’s a lot of misinformed speculation being made off early voting.
Early voting can:
Cannibalize #Election Day vote, where it’s just people voting early, but not more people voting.
Change the Election Day vote, where people respond to the early voting news, affecting turnout.
There are too many variables, the margin of error ends up like 15% which makes it meaningless.
It can be right, but it’s not predictive.
#uspol #politics #uspolitics #earlyvote #voting #vote #harris #trump
Our record-breaking final #Georgia #EarlyVote turnout is 285,771 (so far), which is the bar chart on the very right of the chart in the attached image.
Core #Atlanta 🔵 metro counties over-performed and suburban/exurban underperformed, relative to previous days.
Total turnout is 3,995,938 / 55.2% turnout.
As of yesterday, the urban turnout (38.2%) has just about caught up with suburban (40.7%) and rural (41.7%) turnout, after some considerable deficits early in the early voting cycle.
And, the TargetSmart modeled party as of yesterday showed a delta between 🔵 Dems and 🔴 Republicans is down to 3.3 pct pt, LOWER than 2020's 5.5 pct pt difference.
I'd expect with today's EV turnout, those figures would continue to narrow to 🔵 's advantage.
There about 100k mail-in ballots left to return in GA, which will be rolling in from now until 11/5. Absentee voters can also vote in-person in lieu of returning their paper ballot.
A couple of less-reliable pollsters (image attached) also indicate that #Harris' momentum has shifted favorable in the past couple of days. Ultimately, A lot is counting on independent voters - whose preferences may determine the outcome of this race in Georgia.
Good afternoon, #Georgia 🍑 #EarlyVote followers!
Apologies for the delay. I do this work for my day/consulting job, and well, things are busy! 🚀
Let's get right to the takeaways 🔎 :
1️⃣ Today's the last day of in-person #EarlyVote in Georgia. Mail-in ballots can still be received up to 7pm on Election Day.
2️⃣ Urban "strong Dem 🔵 " counties now clearly show an overperforming trend for this week. If trends continue, this will be a big day for these counties for this last day of early vote.
4️⃣ IVWPBs* are now comprising more than 50% of the early vote electorate. The Rep 🔴 wave of voters we saw in the earlier record turnout has been abated (short of anything remarkable happening today). We do not yet have #TargetSmart data for partisan ballots pulled.
Analysis:
1️⃣ Polls are based on registered and likely voters, but we're at the point in the cycle where we find out if likely equals become actual voters (or not).
2️⃣ Dems and Reps will be now spending maximum resources identifying likely voters and will be contacting those voters by text, canvassing, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was direct social media outreach.
3️⃣ In terms of predicting outcomes, the only thing I can say with greater confidence is that this race is very much in play. Earlier, with the massive rural turnout, it was tough to see Dems recovering turnout-wise, but 🔵
GOTV efforts are clearly working.
*Independent voters without a partisan ballot pulled.
Another poll showing that we are successfully banking our #earlyvote:
"Those who say they have already cast ballots are included in each poll’s group of likely voters, and across all three states they break heavily in Harris’ favor (61% to 35% in Michigan, 60% to 38% in Wisconsin and 57% to 40% in Pennsylvania)."
If you have the opportunity to #earlyvote and haven't yet, please do! Save the democracy! #uselection
Afternoon #Georgia #EarlyVote update!
➡️ EV In-person voting was at 131k today, which if the reversion to the average continues, would result in turnout around 225k.
📊 A new poll (https://www.atlasintel.org/poll/usa-swing-states-2024-10-29) from AtlasIntel was released for the swing states (and #Georgia) that had #Trump at +3. The results of this poll would be quite a change in trajectory for #Harris' chances in Georgia.
I took a look at the crosstabs, however, and found some weirdness. Specifically, this poll split independents 49 Harris /46.9 Trump, while the earlier Marist poll had 55 Harris / 40 Trump....so, either 1️⃣ there has been a massive shift in independent voter sentiment over the course of a week, 2️⃣ or this poll is wrong, 3️⃣ or the Marist poll is wrong.
The actual breakout of independent support is a critical question and will likely decide the results of the election, short of a massive increase in 🔵 Dem turnout in Georgia.
We're probably going to see a couple more polls before EDay that should either corroborate or refute AtlasIntel's findings.
And while we are all busy with the #FederateTheVote day of action today!
You all rock at getting us past 3,940 followers! Help us cross our goal of 4,000 by end of today! Want to be at maximum reach to make #VoteEarlyDay have the biggest possible reach!
Boost and share this account posts and handle as you share the word about the #earlyvote!
Good morning, #Georgia! Here's your #EarlyVote progress takeaways:
1️⃣ 🔵 Democrats and IVWPBs* won the day for Sunday Early Vote, comprising more than 80% of turnout. Total turnout, however, was 36,845, as only some counties participate in Sunday early voting.
2️⃣ Looking at county-level turnout this morning as of 8:30am, there is much heavier turnout than usual from the core #Atlanta Metro counties: #Fulton, #Dekalb, #Cobb, and #Gwinnett. (Note: this is preliminary data and subject to changing later in the day!)
3️⃣ From the AJC (https://www.ajc.com/politics/politically-georgia/politically-georgia-reading-the-early-voting-tea-leaves/RFGNGJRXRFGJFFC4G6QMG2WZKE/): 🔵 "Harris number-crunchers see the 2022 midterm as the more relevant comparison and say they’re tracking above that turnout level. They expect this week to be the heaviest volume yet, particularly in metro Atlanta, and view their targets in reach."
...and: 🔴 "Brandon Phillips, a veteran Republican strategist who once led Trump’s Georgia operation, said GOP data modeling shows Trump with an edge of roughly 80,000 votes and that Democrats would be “fading by the day” if the pace continues."
4️⃣ Five full days (including today) of early vote remain in #Georgia. There is still time for 🔵 to make up ground lost during #EarlyVote, but the window for that time is, of course, closing.
ℹ️ I adjusted the "cycle" turnout chart and moved 2024 voting +1 day to align better with days-of-the-week from prior election cycles.
*Infrequent voters without a partisan ballot on record.
#earlyvote is below #pandemic no vaccine 2020. Doing best in rural white areas. #Dems are S L O W to turn out. Six days 6! Of early voting available in #virginia. Dedicated voter parking spaces at our local! Handicapped curbside voting space. Call inside from your car, we come out to you. (And don’t mail it for heavens sake.) Not raining.
Remember 08 when it rained all day and night and #obama won in a landslide with huge #turnout? @KamalaHarrisWin
#Earlyvote update: at least 41 million people have voted in the 2024 general election.
Join them, post about it with the tags #Ivoted and #FederateTheVote
https://t.co/YvYcvqgLK8
After 5 days, average daily turnout in Travis Co is 5%. If this keeps up we’ll have 60% turnout just from early and mail-in voting before election day.
#democracy #AustinTX #traviscounty #EarlyVote #voting #VoteEarly #ivoted #votedalready #alreadyVoted #earlyvoting #atx #austin
#Georgia #EarlyVoting Update! It's the last weekend for Early Voting in Georgia.
Here are your mid-day takeaways:
1️⃣ Early voting (mail + in-person) daily ballot counts have returned back to historical averages. On a cumulative basis, however, there is still unprecedented turnout in Georgia.
2️⃣ IVWPBs* vote shares exceeded both 🔵 and 🔴 vote shares yesterday. And both 🔵 and 🔴 vote shares continue to decline, accordingly.
3️⃣ Comparing 2024 to 2020 at this point in the early voting cycle, youth turnout continues to underperform. The conventional wisdom is that youth tend to show up later in the #EarlyVote cycle than older demographics - however with Early Voting ending on Nov 1st, the time to make-up that deficit is running short.
4️⃣ Looking forward, there is what we do know and what we don't know.
➡️ We do know that 🔵 are heading into the final days of #EarlyVoting with a structural disadvantage with lower turnout in their key demographics.
❓ What we don't know: how independent voters in #Georgia, which Pew Research estimates at 18% of the electorate (https://www.pewresearch.org/religious-landscape-study/database/state/georgia/party-affiliation/) are breaking for #Harris or #Trump.
🤔 Currently, there are stronger signals for a 🔴 victory in Georgia - a #Harris victory would require a large(r) proportion of independent voters to vote 🔵 .
One AP story a few days ago (qualitatively) investigated some potential causal factors: https://apnews.com/article/poverty-georgia-turnout-voters-ce8a97510ed8827236d04f8e4e16b2b3
*Infrequent voters without a primary partisan ballot
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