"- Larry Ellison’s wealth is almost entirely tied up in Oracle stock.
Oracle’s stock is tied to the company “Oracle,” which is currently destroying its margins and annihilating its available cash to buy GPUs to serve a customer that cannot afford to pay it.
- Oracle has taken on ruinous debt that can only be paid if this customer, which cannot afford it and needs to raise money from an already-depleted venture capital pool, actually pays it.
- Oracle’s stock has already been punished for these debts, and that’s before OpenAI fails to pay for its contract.
- Oracle now owns part of one of its largest cloud customers, TikTok, which loses billions of dollars a year, and the US entity says, per Bloomberg, that it will “retrain, test and update the content recommendation algorithm on US user data,” guaranteeing that it’ll fuck up whatever makes it useful, reducing its efficacy for advertisers.
- Larry Ellison’s entire financial future is based on whether OpenAI lives or dies. If it dies, there isn’t another entity in the universe that can actually afford (or has interest in) the scale of the compute Oracle is building.
We are setting up for a very funny and chaotic situation where Oracle simply runs out of money, and in the process blows up Larry Ellison’s fortune. However much influence Ellison might have with the administration, Oracle has burdened itself with debt and $248 billion in data center lease obligations — costs that are inevitable, and are already crushing the life out of the company (and the stock)."
